Winter 2019/2020 - Page 2

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  1. #11
    590x331_09201156_winterprecipus919.jpg
    590x331_09201155_wintertempsus919.jpg

    Hope this plays out. Some other maps - not shown - show the delta vs last year, and for the NE its pretty consistent that they expect it to be colder. Lets hope those colder temps coincide with storms. If you recall, there were a lot of storms last season that changed over to non-snow. If its a bit colder in those situations......
    2017/18 = 37
    2016/17 = 31
    2015/16 = Depressing
    2014/15 = 28
    2013/14 = 27

  2. #12
    https://www.weatherbell.com/

    Joe says this fall weather fits 2013-14 Winter analogs ...we'll see .
    "Make Greenland Green again"

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by Siliconebobsquarepants View Post
    https://www.weatherbell.com/

    Joe says this fall weather fits 2013-14 Winter analogs ...we'll see .

    Refresh my memory, was that a good year?

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by skiur View Post
    Refresh my memory, was that a good year?
    Yes , very for Pa. anyway . I actually skied BC in Pa. Weekly refreshes with little melting .IMG_2694.jpg
    "Make Greenland Green again"

  5. #15
    Quote Originally Posted by Siliconebobsquarepants View Post
    https://www.weatherbell.com/

    Joe says this fall weather fits 2013-14 Winter analogs ...we'll see .
    Actually I think its 2014/15 that's the analog year. That winter did not have huge amounts of snow, but in SoVT it did not rain or thaw from the Sunday of MLK weekend (turned to snow overnight for 6" powder on Monday) into the first week of March. There was a Sunday/Monday storm in mid Feb that gave Magic a total of 14" and the woods were thigh deep dry pow from the storm plus 4+ weeks of accumulation. Closest to Colorado skiing I've had on the east coast (meaning deep dry powder that was't from just one storm).

    We also had a 12" storm the Wednesday of thanksgiving week. Although not in my notes, I think that was also the November of record breaking cold where snowmaking terrain expansion was more like December.
    Last edited by slatham; Oct 25, 2019 at 1:24 PM.
    2017/18 = 37
    2016/17 = 31
    2015/16 = Depressing
    2014/15 = 28
    2013/14 = 27

  6. #16
    Wasnt 14/15 the year that Blue Hill was the powder capital of North America? I feel like that year MA had a ton of snow.

    As long as it isnt 15/16 Im good.


    Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone

  7. #17
    I stand corrected. While one of the analogs for the WINTER is 14/15, Joe is using NOVEMBER 2013 as an analog for the month.

    Models coming together for a cold shot next weekend and into the following week. I hope it verifies.

    Last edited by slatham; Oct 26, 2019 at 8:11 AM.
    2017/18 = 37
    2016/17 = 31
    2015/16 = Depressing
    2014/15 = 28
    2013/14 = 27

  8. #18


    Bullish Winter forecast 2013-14 analog (9:45)
    "Make Greenland Green again"

  9. #19
    From Rebecca Facebook forecast for Thanksgiving
    Week
    She been pretty accurate last few years since I started following her
    https://www.facebook.com/25498278121...2512660796087/
    It’s Thanksgiving week

    We have the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event going on. That is tied in to what is about to occur and well into the long range.

    I’ve been talking about the potential Wednesday Thursday storm for a week now. I know many have travel plans.
    The storm around Thanksgiving is going to not only disrupt travel plans, it’s going to kick start high latitude blocking and an active storm pattern. Rain or snow over this time will depend on temperature profiles.

    Tuesday into Wednesday a storm will track through across the Midwest and then move over New York State and northern New England. The system will bring rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow, especially across New York State and New England. Mostly rain for Pennsylvania, and the Middle Atlantic. With Upstate New York and Northern into Central New England seeing rain (perhaps some mix or snow if it’s cold enough) These areas would most likely see a change over to snow, with the passage of the cold front. Rain/snow will hang around into Thursday. The air will cool off quite a bit behind the front. The biggest concern with this system is looking to be wind. Wind gust of 40-50 mph, with perhaps damaging wind gust even higher, especially for higher elevations. Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade balloons could end up being a casualty of the winds on Thanksgiving Day. The blustery winds and chilly conditions will hang around for Black Friday as well.

    Another storm is likely over the coming weekend into Next Monday
    .
    The pattern going forward is going to be very active. There are indications that we’re going to see another SSW during November. So, this could make the end of December and January quite cold.

    The first 5-10 days of December could see a potent storm, with the blocking that looks to be very prevalent, it could be a very interesting storm. The pattern looks to be cold over the next few weeks……so some snow storms are not a big stretch. The GFS is very bullish on snow prospects moving into December.

  10. #20
    Quote Originally Posted by ScottySkis View Post
    From Rebecca Facebook forecast for Thanksgiving
    Week
    She been pretty accurate last few years since I started following her
    https://www.facebook.com/25498278121...2512660796087/
    It’s Thanksgiving week

    We have the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event going on. That is tied in to what is about to occur and well into the long range.

    I’ve been talking about the potential Wednesday Thursday storm for a week now. I know many have travel plans.
    The storm around Thanksgiving is going to not only disrupt travel plans, it’s going to kick start high latitude blocking and an active storm pattern. Rain or snow over this time will depend on temperature profiles.

    Tuesday into Wednesday a storm will track through across the Midwest and then move over New York State and northern New England. The system will bring rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow, especially across New York State and New England. Mostly rain for Pennsylvania, and the Middle Atlantic. With Upstate New York and Northern into Central New England seeing rain (perhaps some mix or snow if it’s cold enough) These areas would most likely see a change over to snow, with the passage of the cold front. Rain/snow will hang around into Thursday. The air will cool off quite a bit behind the front. The biggest concern with this system is looking to be wind. Wind gust of 40-50 mph, with perhaps damaging wind gust even higher, especially for higher elevations. Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade balloons could end up being a casualty of the winds on Thanksgiving Day. The blustery winds and chilly conditions will hang around for Black Friday as well.

    Another storm is likely over the coming weekend into Next Monday
    .
    The pattern going forward is going to be very active. There are indications that we’re going to see another SSW during November. So, this could make the end of December and January quite cold.

    The first 5-10 days of December could see a potent storm, with the blocking that looks to be very prevalent, it could be a very interesting storm. The pattern looks to be cold over the next few weeks……so some snow storms are not a big stretch. The GFS is very bullish on snow prospects moving into December.
    Everything is pointing toward Cold and a lot of it.
    We have the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming event going on. Which is doing its job. We will be seeing a lot of blocking over Greenland.

    The SOI is still falling.

    SOI values for 25 Nov, 2019
    Average SOI for last 30 days -9.60
    Average SOI for last 90 days -9.49
    Daily contribution to SOI calculation -13.62

    Last winter the SOI didn't become this negative until late in the season.............So it could be trying to tell us something.

    This is making the Sunday Monday storm, a very possible snow storm, for much of our region. With the Blocking the cold will be very slow to depart. This could result in Snow/ice down to the Mason Dixon Line.

    Then we have the second possible SSW later in December. The MJO will be a big part of what happens. The JMA and GFS doesn’t allow the MJO to cycle through the warm phases. But the Euro does with the MJO rotating through phases 4,5, and 6. These are warm phases this time of year, The Euro is supporting my idea of a warmer December;that I laid out in my winter outlook. But the Euro has been doing poorly with the long-range temperatures … much worse than the GFS and JMA. We will see, but based on the current teleconnections, a very cold December is quite possible.

    The pattern over the next 2-3 weeks is looking to be very active. The colder air means we have a better chance of seeing more in the way of snow instead of the other way around.

    The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies says cold. Here is a look at current SSTs. When you see anomalies look like this, you’re thinking cold.

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