Opening day in the northeast - Page 2

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  1. #11
    The good news is colder air is entering the pattern thanks to the negative EPO (big ridge over Alaska/GOA) and the Rockies to midwest get cold and snow over the next week or so. The problem is getting the pacific ridge and down stream midwest trough to move east a bit, or at least push/expand east. This is the classic battle of midwest trough vs. SE ridge, with no help from a negative AO or NAO. What has been happening is the models forecast the trough to move east 10-14 days out, but then that forecast evolves into more status quo and it never materializes. Seen this a thousand times - pattern changes are usually slow, and models (especially the GFS) over-forecast them (the exception is a major event happening that immediately shocks the system). The weather doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme.....

    My worry is the big cold outbreak doesn't push east, and then the whole pattern relaxes, and the east fully misses out on the first "wintry" pattern and we have to wait to for a reload and hope it centers itself further East.

    The way it looks now on the operational models, no snowmaking until the weekend of November 2nd. Though I will note that we see a forecast for the negative EPO to hold, and both the AO and NAO to go negative the middle of next week. Hopefully this forecast evolves into these three teleconnections becoming more negative rather than fading. Its anyone's guess how things materialize after that.



    Note that soon we won't need below normal temps. "Normal" temps experience their biggest day-over-day change in November so we are soon entering the window where normal is fine......

    Until then, mountain biking and surf season continues strong!
    Last edited by slatham; Oct 24, 2019 at 9:05 AM.
    2017/18 = 37
    2016/17 = 31
    2015/16 = Depressing
    2014/15 = 28
    2013/14 = 27

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by slatham View Post
    The good news is colder air is entering the pattern thanks to the negative EPO (big ridge over Alaska/GOA) and the Rockies to midwest get cold and snow over the next week or so. The problem is getting the pacific ridge and down stream midwest trough to move east a bit, or at least push/expand east. This is the classic battle of midwest trough vs. SE ridge, with no help from a negative AO or NAO. What has been happening is the models forecast the trough to move east 10-14 days out, but then that forecast evolves into more status quo and it never materializes. Seen this a thousand times - pattern changes are usually slow, and models (especially the GFS) over-forecast them (the exception is a major event happening that immediately shocks the system). The weather doesn't repeat, but it does rhyme.....

    My worry is the big cold outbreak doesn't push east, and then the whole pattern relaxes, and the east fully misses out on the first "wintry" pattern and we have to wait to for a reload and hope it centers itself further East.

    The way it looks now on the operational models, no snowmaking until the weekend of November 2nd. Though I will note that we see a forecast for the negative EPO to hold, and both the AO and NAO to go negative the middle of next week. Hopefully this forecast evolves into these three teleconnections becoming more negative rather than fading. Its anyone's guess how things materialize after that.

    Note that soon we won't need below normal temps. "Normal" temps experience their biggest day-over-day change in November so we are soon entering the window where normal is fine......

    Until then, mountain biking and surf season continues strong!
    That big ridge over Alaska still needs to go away ASAP for us East Coasters!! Just not a bunch of cold air up there waiting to filter down our way right now. Even the 10 day for Prudhoe Bay, AK, up on the oil fields and the shores of the Arctic, has a day or 2 in their 10 day where the high is actually above freezing, and even the "coldest" in the 10 day for them has a high in the mid teens, which is quite "balmy" for them this time of the year.

    It does look like the trends want to break that ridge down and get that "warm" air out of the region where the good chunk of our "cold" air originates.

    In the mean time, I'll squeeze a few more rounds of golf in before I trade out my golf shoes for ski boots until the Spring!
    '07--08 season: 51 Days, '08-'09 season: 55 Days, '09-'10 season: 41 Days, '10-'11 season: 49 days, '11-'12 season: 40 Days '12-'13 season: 57 days, '13-'14 season, 60 days '14-'15 season 60 days, '15-'16 season 52 days, '16-'17 season: 50 days, '17-'18 season 52 days, '18-'19 season 45 days '07-'19 seasons: 612 Days

    '19 - '20 season:

    November: 16.17,23,29,30 (Mount Snow)
    December: 1,7,14,15 (Mount Snow)

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by drjeff View Post
    That big ridge over Alaska still needs to go away ASAP for us East Coasters!! Just not a bunch of cold air up there waiting to filter down our way right now. Even the 10 day for Prudhoe Bay, AK, up on the oil fields and the shores of the Arctic, has a day or 2 in their 10 day where the high is actually above freezing, and even the "coldest" in the 10 day for them has a high in the mid teens, which is quite "balmy" for them this time of the year.

    It does look like the trends want to break that ridge down and get that "warm" air out of the region where the good chunk of our "cold" air originates.

    In the mean time, I'll squeeze a few more rounds of golf in before I trade out my golf shoes for ski boots until the Spring!
    Actually this high over Alaska is not bringing air down from there. The source region is Western Canada. It is going to bring down very very cold air. Some models have temps' 30+degrees below normal in the high plains next week. The issue is as this cold air moves east it moderates and shifts north as the southeast ridge flexes against it.

    Halloween
    ecmwf-conus-t2m_f_anom_1day-2544800.jpg

    Saturday 11/2

    ecmwf-conus-t2m_f_anom_1day-2739200.jpg

    The above is the last date of the operational. Question is, does the cold fade as it moves east or can some of it move in and we get below normal temps. But either way it looks too warm until around 11/2, and then we will see.....
    2017/18 = 37
    2016/17 = 31
    2015/16 = Depressing
    2014/15 = 28
    2013/14 = 27

  4. #14
    Throw all the eggs at me that you want, and usually I'm the kind of person who gets antsy by now, but the spectacular weather this fall has kept skiing far from my mind. Never seen a fall quite like this one...almost every day in September was in the 70s and sunny. October had a few storms mixed in, but has had tons of days in the 50s and 60s and total sunshine.

    Considering this time of year can often bring days upon days of rain, temps in the 30s and 40s, and get stuck in that hell that isn't really winter, but no longer fall, I'll take this until the snow is ready to fall.

    Plus, if this year even comes close to last year, we're only 7 days from Snowvember. Who needs WROD season anyway?
    2003-2004: 21; 2004-2005: 27; 2005-2006: 31; 2006-2007: 31; 2007-2008: 38; 2008-2009: 43; 2009-2010: 42; 2010-2011: 46; 2011-2012: 33; 2012-2013: 26 2013-14: 18; 2014-15: 17; 2015-16: 7; 2016-17: 14; 2017-18: 23; 2018-19

    2019-20 days - 6
    Wachusett: 11/15, 11/21, 12/5
    Stratton: 11/26; Mt. Snow: 12/3
    Killington: 12/8

  5. #15
    MEtoVTSkier's Avatar
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    I wonder what ultimately works out better for ski areas/resorts. A long, drawn out, slow ramp up to full operations, or little to no early season, and an extremely quick need to shift to full operations in just a couple days. Seems like all mountains are struggling to get/keep enough seasonal help, so to need a bunch of new help overnight must be getting harder to pull off.

  6. #16
    Most mountains have a pre-determined "safe" opening date by Thanksgiving or early December so the unpredictable late October/ early November weather makes very little difference assuming things cool down on regular schedule. Only affects operations at a few places that like to push the early season envelope. Most of us won't put our skis in the car until it's top to bottom anyway.

    Snowmaking ponds should be making out well , which is really the main thing right now.

  7. #17
    i took my skis in for a quick tune on sunday. i did not bring them back into the house. car skis!

  8. #18
    I thought Stowe confirmed Nov 22nd but was looking and can't seem to find that online... can anyone validate my shoddy memory? Have made the last 5-6 or and want to keep the streak alive. Remember Mt Snow was open on Halloween last year and it felt like full-on winter... did a maniac day trip from Jersey City to stretch the legs.

  9. #19
    Quote Originally Posted by KustyTheKlown View Post
    i took my skis in for a quick tune on sunday. i did not bring them back into the house. car skis!
    put them in the house in a very hard place to get at.
    thank you

  10. #20
    Weather pattern is looking to change this weekend and looks reasonably good well into November. I don’t think the beast can open Sunday (though I don’t rule it’s out) but by midweek next week looks pretty good.
    2017/18 = 37
    2016/17 = 31
    2015/16 = Depressing
    2014/15 = 28
    2013/14 = 27

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