Superpasses: more crowds?

abc · Feb 25, 2020

thetrailboss said:
What you are missing is that people used to pay a premium for the experience of some of these resorts that are now much more crowded with IKON. Two prime examples: Deer Valley and Aspen. Anecdotally, there are MANY second-home owners at those resorts who are PISSED with the crowds of folks who are at the areas to "use their days" while locals who only want Aspen or DV pay a premium to ski there (DV still commands $2,000 pp or so at last check). So if you invested in a second-home at these areas, and have been paying a premium for a top-shelf experience, now that has completely been undermined by folks who show up with their $599 or $999 IKON passes and crowd the slopes. Folks with those passes are NOT going to buy high-priced realty.

I think Jim's larger point is that the value of SOME of these resorts, in terms of brand, is being eroded.

"The point" of the brand being eroded, aka "de-valued" is NOT the same as the value of the property being reduced!

Let's say, hypothetically, the property value at Aspen or Deer Valley will come down by ANY amount, I and many others will jump right in and buy it as rental investment property! Them being on IKON means there will be many visitors who would need a place to crash at the end of the day. The supply are limited. So the value have to go up if more visitors are visiting, even for a few days!

So, if a home owner got sick of the crowd and wants to cash out, they'll probably be making a killing rather than losing money!

It's perfectly fine to put one's money where it will derive the best happiness for oneself. Just be very careful about using fictitious justification that don't stand up to logic and economical reality.

EPB · Feb 25, 2020

abc said:
"The point" of the brand being eroded, aka "de-valued" is NOT the same as the value of the property being reduced!

Let's say, hypothetically, the property value at Aspen or Deer Valley will come down by ANY amount, I and many others will jump right in and buy it as rental investment property! Them being on IKON means there will be many visitors who would need a place to crash at the end of the day. The supply are limited. So the value have to go up if more visitors are visiting, even for a few days!

So, if a home owner got sick of the crowd and wants to cash out, they'll probably be making a killing rather than losing money!

It's perfectly fine to put one's money where it will derive the best happiness for oneself. Just be very careful about using fictitious justification that don't stand up to logic and economical reality.

There are ranges of properties where that's likely the case. I could see the upper echelons of the market trading down for the reasons TB outlined.

Could you make decent rental income on a condo at the base of Deer Valley? Probably.

Could you do the same with a large mid-mountain spread? Probably not. Same goes for ranches (as in vast properties on large plots of land, not 1 level homes) in Aspen. Part of the point was to escape where the riff raff like us were less likely to go.

Sent from my VS988 using AlpineZone mobile app

thetrailboss · Feb 25, 2020

abc said:
"The point" of the brand being eroded, aka "de-valued" is NOT the same as the value of the property being reduced!

Let's say, hypothetically, the property value at Aspen or Deer Valley will come down by ANY amount, I and many others will jump right in and buy it as rental investment property! Them being on IKON means there will be many visitors who would need a place to crash at the end of the day. The supply are limited. So the value have to go up if more visitors are visiting, even for a few days!

So, if a home owner got sick of the crowd and wants to cash out, they'll probably be making a killing rather than losing money!

It's perfectly fine to put one's money where it will derive the best happiness for oneself. Just be very careful about using fictitious justification that don't stand up to logic and economical reality.

You're still missing the point. Deer Valley is not just any ski area. People paid a hefty premium to be there. Now it is just "another" ski area.

bdfreetuna · Feb 25, 2020

^
I can understand the disappointment when hoping for a Mitt Romney sighting and instead you bump into KustyTheKlown.

abc · Feb 25, 2020

thetrailboss said:
You're still missing the point. Deer Valley is not just any ski area. People paid a hefty premium to be there. Now it is just "another" ski area.

They say the same about Aspen and Telluride.

I guess the difference between Aspen and DV is Aspen has legitimate terrain, DV doesn't.

But so what? The point is not whether the "brand" is eroded. The point is the brand may has CHANGED. And the change, while it may not be to the liking of the existing owner, it's unlikely they'll lose money. Because the new brand maybe attracting MORE interest, and BETTER value for someone else!

jimmywilson69 · Feb 25, 2020

bdfreetuna said:
^
I can understand the disappointment when hoping for a Mitt Romney sighting and instead you bump into KustyTheKlown.

:lol: :lol:

AdironRider · Feb 25, 2020

abc said:
They say the same about Aspen and Telluride.

I guess the difference between Aspen and DV is Aspen has legitimate terrain, DV doesn't.

But so what? The point is not whether the "brand" is eroded. The point is the brand may has CHANGED. And the change, while it may not be to the liking of the existing owner, it's unlikely they'll lose money. Because the new brand maybe attracting MORE interest, and BETTER value for someone else!

Yeah that is a great business model. Rolex is probably taking notes.

JimG. · Feb 25, 2020

thetrailboss said:
Again, if you paid for the Stowe or Deer Valley experience, and now those brands are equated with cheap EPIC/IKON, then you've lost the value for your property.

IKON and EPIC do not equate to high value clientele, not even in the rental market.

Yeah, I'm not in the market to buy a ski house only to rent it out. Not looking to be a landlord.

Especially not for Airbnb and the like.

1dog · Feb 25, 2020

Can anyone tell me about Telluride?

Been to most all western states and areas - except California - like steeps and steeper - trees and side country, willing to hike- skin - just seems like its harder to get to - and natural snowfall for 14K peaks isn't that high compared to other areas in CO and UT.

Saw on Zranking.com the 'true natural snow fall' is well under 300". . . .

BenedictGomez · Feb 25, 2020

thetrailboss said:
if you paid for the Stowe or Deer Valley experience, and now those brands are equated with cheap EPIC/IKON, then you've lost the value for your property. IKON and EPIC do not equate to high value clientele, not even in the rental market.

Definitely. I believe this is a not insignificant brand risk DV, JH, Stowe, etc.... are either wantonly taking for a short-term benefit, or not fully giving consideration. For every pizzed-off former millionaire customer who tosses cash around like confetti, you better sign up a ****load of IKON/EPIC members to replace him/her.

abc said:
Let's say, hypothetically, the property value at Aspen or Deer Valley will come down by ANY amount, I and many others will jump right in and buy it as rental investment property!

If the property dropped in value that much, his point would have borne true. As it is now, nobody is buying $2.78 Million DV pads to rent on AirBNB.

abc · Feb 25, 2020

AdironRider said:
Yeah that is a great business model. Rolex is probably taking notes.

Home owners in a ski mountain has as much power as a Rolex owner has on the brand's "standing", which is zero!

Funny you pick Rolex as an example. My folks worked in an industry where a Rolex watch is a "right of passage", without which on one's wrist, nobody takes you seriously. So how does a young aspiring guy get to be taken seriously? Well, if your folks doesn't work in the industry and handed you one, you'll just have to pony up the money for it. Like a lot of things, it's really not that valuable, except it was artificially made so through "exclusivity". It can be easily taken away by those who control it.

JimG. · Feb 25, 2020

thetrailboss said:
You're still missing the point. Deer Valley is not just any ski area. People paid a hefty premium to be there. Now it is just "another" ski area.

Our argument is lost on the megapass crowd that cares not about quality. As long as it's cheap for them screw everyone who paid a premium.

And while these same folks don't care a lick, ski areas who choose to treat locals and homeowners this way will pay a hefty price. And when those folks up and leave, like BG says there had better be a shitload of cheapo megapass holders to make up the difference.

abc · Feb 25, 2020

1dog said:
Can anyone tell me about Telluride?

Been to most all western states and areas - except California - like steeps and steeper - trees and side country, willing to hike- skin - just seems like its harder to get to - and natural snowfall for 14K peaks isn't that high compared to other areas in CO and UT.

Saw on Zranking.com the 'true natural snow fall' is well under 300". . . .

Telluride is drop dead gorgeous!

It has everything in terms of terrain. But I don't know enough about the snow record. It's very much in the same ball park as the other southern Colorado mountains though, think Taos and Crested Butte.

You want steep and steeper, but "been everywhere EXCEPT California"? That's one state that has an outsized share of steeps in comparison to other states.

mbedle · Feb 25, 2020

bdfreetuna said:
^
I can understand the disappointment when hoping for a Mitt Romney sighting and instead you bump into KustyTheKlown.

OMG - good one.... lol

1dog · Feb 25, 2020

yes I've been to Sqaw in summer - KT22 looks just right - but the snow. . . . like NE and Europe - a crap shoot. been going to Montana.Wyoming.Utah.CO every year for 30 and never been a rain out or thin snow. . . . . I should have gone to CA last winter.. . . .

I make calls in Oct/Nov so I can't do last minute dump/flights.

I got an email from this company that books your week for $2500-$3500 and tell you 3 days before departure where you are going to get the powder. . . . . . have no idea how they run a business model like that - but those prices include flights. . . . . . . and some meals. . . . . .

forgot the name. . . .

abc · Feb 25, 2020

JimG. said:
Our argument is lost on the megapass crowd that cares not about quality. As long as it's cheap for them screw everyone who paid a premium.

Why should the public cares about how much those who paid a premium? It's up to the "premium payer" to guarantee they get their money's worth. Otherwise, it's a sucker's game!

JimG. · Feb 25, 2020

abc said:
Why should the public cares about how much those who paid a premium? It's up to the "premium payer" to guarantee they get their money's worth. Otherwise, it's a sucker's game!

Like Adironrider said, I'll bet Rolex is taking notes on your obvious business savvy.

1dog · Feb 25, 2020

I skied DV in '98 just after the Lewinsky debacle and Clintons were staying at Speilbergs house in DV - and not speaking to each other - gee, imagine that? Saw more suited men in black w sunglasses than ever before. . . . no Hill on the hill tho. . . .

I did have a fur collared leather coat with long hair and sunglasses the week of Sundance - hanging on Main St in PC and a lot of people thought I was 'somebody'. . . .I guarantee you. . .I'm nobody and hope to keep it that way as long a possible. . . . preferrably forever.

KustyTheKlown · Feb 25, 2020

bdfreetuna said:
^
I can understand the disappointment when hoping for a Mitt Romney sighting and instead you bump into KustyTheKlown.

i lol’d

boston_e · Feb 25, 2020

Do published numbers exist as far as skier visits nationally that would show that skier visits have increased since the inception of these mega-passes?

Superpasses: more crowds?

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