Superpasses: more crowds?

abc · Feb 25, 2020

cdskier said:
Enough rambling from me...

That’s a very nicely thought out rambling. A lot more coherent than many of the shhot-from-the-hip posts we typically have here.

My only quibble is on the weekend blackout suggestion. It’s not as ridiculous as you thought. Epic pass is actually quite complicated. It has Saturday blackouts in some regions. So it’s definitely not entirely off the table for Ikon to do something similar.

But I suspect Alterra and the partners are locked in till after their initial 3 year. So for 2021, we’ll just have to continue to debate about it endlessly.

JimG. · Feb 25, 2020

cdskier said:
I'm curious from an eastern perspective what real estate markets Jim thinks have been hurt by mega-passes?

In conclusion, people need to remember that we're only in the 2nd year of having 2 major mega-passes. We'll certainly see corrections and changes as resorts try to balance customer satisfaction appropriately. I think some of that correction will come from us "users" as well. If people are legitimately fed up, they'll go elsewhere and the mega pass owners will see this and take it into account.

Nothing has been affected or hurt...yet.

It's just speculation on my part, that's all. Remember, I'm one of those folks who is considering getting a ski home. Frankly I'm glad I'm looking and not owning right now and I'm sure I'm not the only one in that position who is now carefully waiting and watching. As you said, year 2 of a 3 year deal. We shall see.

abc · Feb 25, 2020

Stowe became a mega-resort a few more years back. Did the real estate got hurt?

Okemo followed right after. These were before Alterra. It’s not like we don’t have some hints.

JimG. · Feb 25, 2020

Waiting and watching...

Zand · Feb 25, 2020

abc said:
Stowe became a mega-resort a few more years back. Did the real estate got hurt?

Okemo followed right after. These were before Alterra. It’s not like we don’t have some hints.

Stowe you could use, but has Okemo really changed that much? It's been 15 years since they added Jackson Hole and the hotel, but it didnt really seem to change the overall crowding. They already had a couple thousand condos or whatever.

abc · Feb 25, 2020

Reality being, Okemo was pretty crowded to begin with. Stowe a little less so.

It’s quite a few years of “waiting and watching” when it comes to Stowe. Except the way things are changing, you may be waiting, but you’re not watching. Because whatever you think you’re seeing, it’s ready to change again!

deadheadskier · Feb 25, 2020

JimG. said:
Nothing has been affected or hurt...yet.

It's just speculation on my part, that's all. Remember, I'm one of those folks who is considering getting a ski home. Frankly I'm glad I'm looking and not owning right now and I'm sure I'm not the only one in that position who is now carefully waiting and watching. As you said, year 2 of a 3 year deal. We shall see.

Why not do a seasonal rental vs buy? I'm about 90% certain I'm renting a place up near Wildcat next season. I can afford to buy, but I'm not sure we'd get the off season use out of it for it to make financial sense nor do I necessarily want to double my home ownership maintenance hassles at this time. If Vail/Epic fs up Wildcat too bad, I can just switch to Cannon and rent or buy over there. The place I'm looking at is $8k for 4 months. To buy similar would be $225k. Given my intended use model, the better investment is doing a rental and putting the remainder of what I'd spend buying the real estate into the market instead.

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JimG. · Feb 25, 2020

abc said:
Reality being, Okemo was pretty crowded to begin with. Stowe a little less so.

It’s quite a few years of “waiting and watching” when it comes to Stowe. Except the way things are changing, you may be waiting, but you’re not watching. Because whatever you think you’re seeing, it’s ready to change again!

Or just not interested in owning at Stowe? Not interested in a 5.5 hour drive each way?

abc · Feb 25, 2020

JimG. said:
Or just not interested in owning at Stowe? Not interested in a 5.5 hour drive each way?

Except you should. It’ll tell you a lot about the financial reality of mega-resorts, since you’re so convinced of their eventual demise.

thetrailboss · Feb 25, 2020

KustyTheKlown said:
the slopeside homes you see from the lifts at DV are fucking wild. like mark cuban richard branson jeff bezos fuckin wild.

Yes they are.

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JimG. · Feb 25, 2020

deadheadskier said:
Why not do a seasonal rental vs buy? I'm about 90% certain I'm renting a place up near Wildcat next season. I can afford to buy, but I'm not sure we'd get the off season use out of it for it to make financial sense nor do I necessarily want to double my home ownership maintenance hassles at this time. If Vail/Epic fs up Wildcat too bad, I can just switch to Cannon and rent or buy over there. The place I'm looking at is $8k for 4 months. To buy similar would be $225k. Given my intended use model, the better investment is doing a rental and putting the remainder of what I'd spend buying the real estate into the market instead.

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I hear you but I abhor the idea of renting. It's not my place but because of the investment for rent I feel stressed to use it as much as possible. I would probably feel the same stress to use any place I decided to buy. I'm still deciding if I really want to deal with that imperative to use a place I rent/own as much as possible. Frankly I like my current set up. We have already decided to keep our NY home, perhaps give it to our sons in trust. Then we could buy a NE home and claim that as our primary residence. And we could move between NY and NE easily.

I ski at K because I like the place and the drive from my home in NY is 3.5 hours. Perfect for 2 day overnights my wonderful wife allows me to indulge in. I do that 10 times a season and a few day trips to get 25 days out of my K pass. Hotels cost me about $1500 a season. I daytrip Belleayre or Gore for my other 25 days. Until my youngest is out of college in 2024 that won't change.

I like the idea of having a home base in ski country, but it has to be on my terms. And as everyone notes in our current world everything is always changing and being disrupted. I'm not into that. So maybe buying at this time is not the right choice for us. So I keep watching and waiting.

deadheadskier · Feb 25, 2020

JimG. said:
I hear you but I abhor the idea of renting. It's not my place but because of the investment for rent I feel stressed to use it as much as possible. I would probably feel the same stress to use any place I decided to buy. I'm still deciding if I really want to deal with that imperative to use a place I rent/own as much as possible. Frankly I like my current set up. We have already decided to keep our NY home, perhaps give it to our sons in trust. Then we could buy a NE home and claim that as our primary residence. And we could move between NY and NE easily.

I ski at K because I like the place and the drive from my home in NY is 3.5 hours. Perfect for 2 day overnights my wonderful wife allows me to indulge in. I do that 10 times a season and a few day trips to get 25 days out of my K pass. Hotels cost me about $1500 a season. I daytrip Belleayre or Gore for my other 25 days. Until my youngest is out of college in 2024 that won't change.

I like the idea of having a home base in ski country, but it has to be on my terms. And as everyone notes in our current world everything is always changing and being disrupted. I'm not into that. So maybe buying at this time is not the right choice for us. So I keep watching and waiting.

I get all that. For me the allure of a place near a ski area is all about simplification such that my downtime is more down with less stress. I work my tail off during the week in a very stressful job. I travel a ton for work too. So, weekend day trips even 90 minutes or less away, seems like a lot of work to get my kid on the hill. That multiplies in 2-3 years when our daughter is ready to start. This week we are in Stowe for five days. Massive production to get the family of four + dog all packed up and ready to go, Also took a bunch of research to find the exact right spot for the five of us.

A seasonal rental just seems so much easier to deal with. I move in December 1st. All the crap I went through to load up for five days here, I do one time and it lasts four months vs five days. I just get in my car Friday afternoons with the family, drive two hours and arrive at a place I have everything set up and comfortable for an entire season. If something breaks at the house during those 4 months, it's not my dime to fix it. Rental term ends March 31, we pack up, move out and I don't have a care in the world about happens to the place all summer.

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Smellytele · Feb 26, 2020

Used to seasonal rent before kids. With kids it would have been harder to get my money’s worth. They always had things going on. (Did brain wash them to hate basketball though). One had baseball practice/ workouts all winter, one played indoor soccer as well. Then as teenagers girls, jobs and friends got in the way. Day trips was what worked best. A few long weekends and February vaca (actually in Stowe this week with the wife and youngest. Also the middle one over the weekend.

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jimmywilson69 · Feb 26, 2020

KustyTheKlown said:
why havent they upgraded the toll house lift and put parking and ski school and etc down there? would be a great beginner's compound.

Shhhhh Don't tell people about the ability to park down there

Hawk · Feb 26, 2020

We rented for years. 17 at Sunday River and then 2 more at Sugarbush. Then we bought. Both my wife and I ski about 50 days a year so in order to do that and not spend a sh*t ton of cash, we created and/or joined ski houses for the most part. At SR it was ideal. An old teacher/lobster man from RI bought up 2 or 3 farm houses near SR for investment and rented us one for cheap money. We maximized the capacity in it ended up about $500-$600 a year and we had our own room. Then we moved to Sugarbush and after 2 years we bough a condo in the $ 140K range. Rolled the cost into our home mortgage and paid it off. Now we enjoy ski in/ski out with a very short walk. Our car does not move from Friday night until Sunday afternoon on any given weekend as long as there is snow. We use the IKON at Killington, Sunday River and this year at Zermat. It has already reached the cost effective point and any further visits will be gravy. I think our model has given us stress free weekends and we maximize the fun factor. We are now full fledged members of the community and love the valley as our second home. One thing, we look at the VT condo as an investment because there is no way in hell we would ever retire to VT. Just see other post for the entire tax conversation in VT. Orca had beat that one up pretty good.

Hawk · Feb 26, 2020

jimmywilson69 said:
Shhhhh Don't tell people about the ability to park down there

Toll House Lift: We did that a few times but it totally sucks in my opinion. It opens at 9:00 if the attendant shows up on time and is slow ass. It takes a good 1/2 hour to get up the lift and ski that flat trail over to the base. No thanks.

kingslug · Feb 26, 2020

Owning at Stowe so far has been great. Yes the 5 hour drive sucks Friday night but the payoff is worth it. I spent a lot of years skiing mostly Hunter with some trips to K and out West and Europe and rarely got up North much. Now skiing at SB , Stowe, Jay has made both of us better skiers. And we get a lot more days in. Summer is good up there as well..once you get past mud season. And our place has gone up in value. Her cousin owns a studio in Spruce and it went up 100K after he bought it. There wasn't a lot of places for sale under 300K when we looked and I think inventory is even lower now. So its looking like a good investment.

Smellytele · Feb 26, 2020

kingslug said:
Owning at Stowe so far has been great. Yes the 5 hour drive sucks Friday night but the payoff is worth it. I spent a lot of years skiing mostly Hunter with some trips to K and out West and Europe and rarely got up North much. Now skiing at SB , Stowe, Jay has made both of us better skiers. And we get a lot more days in. Summer is good up there as well..once you get past mud season. And our place has gone up in value. Her cousin owns a studio in Spruce and it went up 100K after he bought it. There wasn't a lot of places for sale under 300K when we looked and I think inventory is even lower now. So its looking like a good investment.

So you went from starter jackets and hockey jerseys to Bogner. [emoji3]

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kingslug · Feb 26, 2020

Absolutely.....
But I prefer Obermeyer...

abc · Feb 26, 2020

kingslug said:
Owning at Stowe so far has been great. Yes the 5 hour drive sucks Friday night but the payoff is worth it. I spent a lot of years skiing mostly Hunter with some trips to K and out West and Europe and rarely got up North much. Now skiing at SB , Stowe, Jay has made both of us better skiers. And we get a lot more days in. Summer is good up there as well..once you get past mud season. And our place has gone up in value. Her cousin owns a studio in Spruce and it went up 100K after he bought it. There wasn't a lot of places for sale under 300K when we looked and I think inventory is even lower now. So its looking like a good investment.

Precisely!

Property owners in the first northeast mega-resort aren't losing money because of it...yet

(or ever)

There're 2 major motivation for buying properties: 1) to use/enjoy, 2) hope for appreciation. Most people, of course, are hoping for both. But priorities differ on how big each factor is.

With real estate the way they appreciated in the last couple decades, people got conditioned to expect big appreciation, and the enjoyment/use comes for free. Well, that may or may not last forever in an overall scene. But if you get enough enjoyment out of it, there's less expectation for huge appreciation. Less chance to be disappointed.

Superpasses: more crowds?

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