Rebecca very reliable Facebook weather forecasters - Page 2

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  1. #11
    Hmm thanks... I guess Tornado Girl isn't keeping the site updated though. Keep posting it here

    2019/2020 season

    Berkshire East [12/20, 1/7, 1/10, 1/22, 1/24]
    Bretton Woods [1/3, 1/30]
    Cannon [2/19]
    Gunstock [1/2]
    Mad River Glen [1/29, 2/11]
    Magic [3/1, 3/8]
    Mount Snow [11/14, 11/21, 12/2]
    Pico [2/23]
    Smugglers Notch [2/12]
    Wachusett [12/16]

  2. #12
    Quote Originally Posted by bdfreetuna View Post
    Hmm thanks... I guess Tornado Girl isn't keeping the site updated though. Keep posting it here
    Up I noticed that while ago +100
    Absolutely my plan

  3. #13
    Quote Originally Posted by bdfreetuna View Post
    Hmm thanks... I guess Tornado Girl isn't keeping the site updated though. Keep posting it here
    As of Sunday afternoon

    We have a clipper (really more of a glorified warm front) moving through. This will bring a few rain/snow showers into the region Parts of Pennsylvania, northern Maryland, northern New Jersey into New York State and New England, could see a dusting to an inch or so, of snow/mix. With parts of northern New York State and northern into central New England seeing 1-3 inches of this snow/mix The Tug Hill into the eastern Adirondacks could see 2-5 inches of snow. Southern into Central Pennsylvania, Mid Atlantic and southern New England many will see rain. So no real weather worries, But roads could be a slippery so keep that in mind. So those Super Bowl parties should go off with no weather worries.

    Well Punxsutawney says it’s going to be an early spring. I’ve seen Staten Island Chuck and Manchester’s Chuckles the Groundhog said the same thing. I think Considering winter has been a no show for many of us. It makes sense from them to say that. NOAA seems to agree, they show February being quite warm.

    It will be warmer tomorrow into Tuesday. Then we turn colder for the 2nd half of the week. It won’t be super cold, but cold enough to produce snow for parts of our region. We will also have a couple areas of low pressure moving up the Eastern Seaboard.

    Tomorrow we will see more sun with temperatures ending around 10 degrees warmer than today. Tuesday will see a cold front slowly approach, it will kick off some rain/snow showers later Tuesday/Tuesday night. Those with the best chance for rain will be across western Pennsylvania, with more in the way of snow/mix in New York State. The front will move into the region on Wednesday, where it will stall. At the same time will see weak to moderate high pressure build down from Canada. The high pressure will allow moderately cold air to filter into New England and New York State. There will be low pressure moving along the front. The northern Mid Atlantic will be on the warm side of the front, so mostly rain for y’all. Rain across western Pennsylvania, will change to a snow/mix Wednesday then snow for Thursday into Friday. For northern Pennsylvania, New York State and New England rain will change over to snow/mix. The farther north and higher up you are the greater your chance for more in the way of snow. As the high pressure gives way snow/mix will change back over to rain/mix.

    Thursday night/Friday a stronger wave will work up the East Coast. Northern areas will change from snow over to a mix of sleet and freezing rain. Southern areas will warm Thursday afternoon, changing over from a mix to primarily rain Thursday night and Friday, rain amounts of one to one and half of an inch are possible. Parts of New York State and northern and Central New England could end up with significant snow accumulation during the entire event and very slippery roads are possible during this event.

    The system clears the region by next Saturday afternoon.

  4. #14
    Here are my first real thoughts on the general P-type as well as a very general basic timeline.

    The second half of this week is going to be very active. The region will experience rain, sleet, freezing rain, and snow. Parts of the I-95 Tri state might get into some of the frozen precipitation as well.

    Wednesday Rain across southern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York City/long Island much of southern New England. With central Pennsylvania, having the best chance for a sleet/freezing rain mix. Right not it looks to be light to at times moderate snow across Western Pennsylvania (north of Pittsburgh), western New York State, as well as the southern tier north to around the Mohawk Valley, northern Connecticut, Massachusetts, southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire. Northern New York State, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire look to see next to nothing, but there could be a bit of mix. Eastern Maine could see some snow, while western Maine sees next to nothing.

    High pressure will move to our north, this is going to allow cold air to try and filter into the region. Low Pressure will also be moving north and east along the frontal boundary. The low will be pulling in a lot of moisture. As we get into Thursday rain is likely for Pennsylvania, and the Middle Atlantic, lower Hudson Valley, most of Connecticut, Rhode Island, and southeast Massachusetts.

    Thursday morning, cold air looks to get trapped close to the surface. For those south of the Mohawk Valley into the Catskills, Mid-Hudson Valley (perhaps even Albany) Northeast Pennsylvania, Northern New Jersey, northern Connecticut, and southern Massachusetts temperatures will most likely be just below freezing. This will lead to the possibility for an extend period of freezing rain. Areas north of I-90 in New York State extreme northern Massachusetts, and northern New England, moderate to at times heavy snow will be possible.

    Friday will see the low pressure moving over the Mid-Atlantic and close to Southern New England. Snow for Northwest Pennsylvania, much of New York State (with the exception of southeast New York State and the Hudson Valley, most of Vermont, northern New Hampshire, and northern and central Maine, everyone else will see rain/mix. The farther south and east you, the greater your chance of seeing just a cold rain.

    Saturday will see lingering wintery precipitation with brisk winds. Sunday into Monday we will likely be dealing with another storm.

    I will post more as the picture gets clearer.....This is based on what things look like at this time.....but things can change.

  5. #15
    Later today into tomorrow, we have a storm, bringing snow from Texas into the Great Lakes. For the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. High pressure will move into Northern New England on Wednesday allowing for a dip in temperatures a couple of waves will move north and east into our region for the 2nd half of this week.

    The storm will move into the Great Lakes Wednesday night into Thursday, and a warm front will move up the coast. How far north the front gets will be a key as to where the most snow falls. Initially, the air will be cold enough for an icy mix and snow Wednesday evening into Thursday morning across our southern areas into Northwest New Jersey. right now, these areas most likely will see a lull for Thursday afternoon as temperatures warm, rain returns for Thursday evening /night. Rain should change over to light snow for your Friday.

    All of this will work North and east for our Thursday. This sleet/freezing rain risk extends into, western, southern, and central New York as well as the Hudson Valley, Connecticut, Massachusetts, & Rhode Island. North of these areas more in the way of snow/with some mix possible. These areas will most likely experience a short lived break before the second wave brings back the precipitation.

    These two waves won’t be major snow producers. Northern into central Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey, New York State south of I -90 and north and west of New York City and Long Island, Southern New England northward into Southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire a Dusting to 3 inches of snow will be possible by Friday. Areas around Portland and Maine's coastal plain, most likely will see around the same. New York State north of I-90, northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire into the rest of Maine 3-6 inches of snow, with perhaps a couple inches or so above that for the mountains.
    Southern Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, most of New Jersey, New York City and along the southern New England coast this will be mostly rain, with some mixing at times.

  6. #16
    Not much has changed from my earlier post........Here are the highlights.

    The 2nd wave's track has shifted a little to the south and east.

    Winter Weather Advisories are posted for most of Pennsylvania, New York State (northern and west of New York City), and southern and central New England. There are Winter Storm Watches for far northern and northeast New York State to Northern New England.

    Ice accumulation for areas north and west of New York City and Philadelphia…. southeast into northeast Pennsylvania and northwest New Jersey of up to a quarter of an inch, with perhaps some higher amounts are possible. The Poconos, Catskills, Hudson Valley Highlands and Interior Connecticut could also see ice accretion like this.

    Heavy rain for Southern New England and the Middle Atlantic Region, total rain amounts of up to three inches are possible. Don’t be surprised if a few thunderstorms pop up in these regions as well. The SPC has a marginal Risk for Severe Weather for Maryland, Delaware, Southeast Pennsylvania, and into southern New Jersey.

    The 2nd piece of energy (Main wave) track has shifted south and east.

    Most of the snow will be in Northwest Pennsylvania, western and upstate New York, and northern into central New England.

    Here is a map showing my general ideas for the entire event. This could change as I get a better handle on the track of the main piece of energy.

  7. #17
    A major storm is developing and will impact the Northeast and the northern Middle Atlantic region. With interior areas dealing with rain, freezing rain, sleet and snow, heavy rains for the coast, with severe weather in the southern Mid Atlantic and Southeast.

    Here is a look at the current Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories for the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mid Atlantic. There are also flood watches up for New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, and points south.

    Earlier I posted my first thoughts on total snowfall amounts. Those amounts might have to be adjusted depending on the actual track the main wave takes. But at least for now, the NWS is in general agreement with my earlier map…here is my earlier map. I have adjusted some of the numbers (but these adjustments are minor) Remember all of this snow won’t come down all at once…. It will be over a 36-48 hour time frame. I admit there are outlets calling for higher amounts. But I'm trying to take a realistic and conservative approach.

    Northeast PA, into New York State and southern New England will be dealing with ice. But I don’t see it being a major ice storm, temperatures just don’t look cold enough for that. Moderate temperatures and upper air dynamics doesn’t look all that impressive. But 0.25-0.35 of an inch is enough to still cause a lot of issues.

    I will post an update, and if needed a new snowfall map tomorrow morning….(If I do, I will include county lines)

    Have a great night.

  8. #18
    Sorry for not posting this earlier, but my husband built me a new shoe rack with attached drawers for jewelry and my scrunchies in my closet. So, I’ve been reorganizing my closet, which is a huge job. Anyway……. Looking at this week.

    This coming week will see a series of waves of low pressure heading eastward with the strongest of them moving through mid to late week. Each one brings rain and some snow eastward. I will also touch on the long-range weather pattern.

    The first wave will bring rain/snow tonight. Most places that start out as snow, will change over to rain. Northern New York State and northern Vermont into Maine will see more in the way of snow. The front is going to stall along the Coast into New England. Another weak wave will move through later Monday into Tuesday, marginal temperatures will see similar results. Then we will see the third wave move north and east to the west of the front. There will be cold air trying to approach. Timing will determine who sees what, but I think this will be similar to our Friday event, at least as to the areas most likely to see snow amounts greater than 6 inches. So those areas in the snow drought look to miss out once again. ……. Looking out into the future!

    The pattern has been wrong and it continues to look wrong moving forward. This has been a strange winter, it started out great for most of us. But then from Christmas to last week It was dismal .

    In this type of pattern, for a snowstorm to occur in the I-95 corridor, everything has to have everything line up perfectly. If we get the right setup, there can be monster storms. But these windows of opportunity will be fleeting IMO. The storm that just went through, was an example of how things can happen if things line up right. I ended up seeing 18 inches, Malone to Newport VT down to near Plattsburgh saw 17- near two feet of snow. Spencertown 21.5", Newburgh 13.5. There were reports of 3-5 inches falling over parts of the Tri-State with amounts of 5-nearly 12 inches for parts of Northern Pennsylvania. Not a block buster, but better than we’ve seen in a while.

    We haven’t seen real arctic highs set up shop driving sustained cold air into our region. Every time we had a system that was accompanied with a lot of moisture the air was too warm and the results were not good for snow. That strong polar vortex which has been strong for the last 6 to 8 weeks is being attacked by warm air, there is a slight weakening occurring in the vortex. But I doubt it is going to weaken enough to bring cold air into North America. It will most likely move back to the other side of the pole where it has mostly been since Christmas.

    From here on I use a lot of acronyms; but I’ve used them and explained them in depth in the past, so most of y’all should have an understanding of them. But if you need something cleared up, just ask.

    We’ve had a very progressive pattern, but other than the Friday/Saturday big storm we have little to show for it. Without blocking these storms just don't linger enough to produce big snow storms. The Pacific is starting to look more and more unfavorable. The cold SST spot the Gulf of Alaska is warming In the ENSO region of the Pacific, region 1 and 2 are cooler, with the areas to the west warming. The SOI has been negative a lot this winter; but the MJO and other teleconnections like the IOD have resisted any attempt to a colder pattern. The latest CFS plume is showing cooling in the ENSO region. The EPO is looking to stay primarily positive. Both the MJO and the NAO don’t look to be cold friendly moving forward. The Southeast Ridge is going to continue to be problem as the battle between the northern and southern streams continues.

  9. #19
    This week is going to feature an active pattern. Today is going to turn mild as a fast-moving clipper moves through, bring a couple of fronts through the region. Here is a look at current radar with frontal positions. The clipper brought a trace to 3 inches to Northern New York State, with the higher elevations ending up with 3-6+ inches. Northern into Central New England will see the same general idea. Northeast New England can expect scattered rain/snow showers for the rest of today. Those in Southern and Eastern Pennsylvania, I-95 and Mid Atlantic and Southern New England rain (heavy at times) The front is going to stall. This frontal boundary will be the focus of our weather, for the next few days.

    Late tonight and tomorrow, another wave of low pressure will ride north and east along the frontal boundary. The low will move across Virginia and then out to sea. Rain is likely for southwest Pennsylvania especially for those along and south of I-70. For the lower Hudson Valley, southern New England, Eastern Pennsylvania, I-95 and Middle Atlantic Region rain showers, with areas in Southeast New York State (south of Albany), and along the Connecticut and Massachusetts border seeing a mix, before changing over to rain showers.

    Southern New Hampshire into Southern and Central Maine a mix is likely, especially closer to the coast. For those north of Pittsburgh, the farther north you go the less chance you see any rain. Western/ Northern New York, Vermont, northern New Hampshire and Northern Maine, should end up with a quiet day tomorrow into Wednesday. High pressure builds in behind this storm.

    For late Wednesday into Friday, low pressure will develop in the Southwest US. This will move east and then north and east across Pennsylvania and Southern New England. This track would mean rain for most of Pennsylvania, I-95 and Southern New England. With mix/snow across New York State and Northern and Central New England. Those in northern New York State and Northern New England, have the best chance of seeing several inches of snow. So the rich get richer and the poor don’t.

    Behind the end of week storm, very cold air comes in to the region just in time for Valentine’s Day

  10. #20
    Looking at radar, we can see our current weather maker getting ready to depart. The Satellite image shows our next system sitting over Texas. Behind the departing wave of low pressure, slightly colder air will work into the region. This setup will allow for snow for Upstate NY and Northern New England with mix/rain for the rest of our region.

    As our next storm approaches. This storm will be similar to our storm last week, but it won’t be as strong or impactful. It looks like, rain for most of Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic Region. Northern Pennsylvania should start out with some snow, but this will change over to a mix and then rain. Southern New York State into areas just south of I-90 some snow/mix and rain. But snow accumulations should be fairly light. Northwest Pennsylvania, western New York, along and north of I-90 and northern New England look to see a general 3-8 inches with localized higher amounts possible.

    Very cold arctic air moves in for Friday and Saturday and then temperatures should rebound for Sunday and Monday. Another system will move into the Upper Great Lakes early next week. This will allow for snow/rain for our region. With the marginal cold, northern areas will have the best chance of any accumulating snows. With rain for everyone else.

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