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  1. #31
    The up and down temperature roller-coaster is looking to continue as we move forward. Also, this stretch of quiet weather weíve had continues for today and tomorrow; then we will see a little hiccup.



    After a cold start, today has become quite warm, tomorrow will be even warmer. Then for Tuesday into Thursday we will see a disturbance move through. Already, we see moisture streaming out of the Southwest heading our way.

    Monday night into Tuesday temperatures will be warm enough, that rain will be in the cards for all of us. Places like Pittsburgh and Buffalo will most likely see scattered showers Monday afternoon but more in the way of widespread rain arrives late in the evening/night. This will all move from south and west to north and east across the region for Tuesday. Northern areas most likely will change over to some sleet and snow by Tuesday night which would continue into Wednesday morning.

    Catskills getting nothing good again.


    Then Wednesday into Thursday another low develops and moves over the lower Great Lakes and western Pennsylvania and western New York State. This 2nd disturbance will have a better shot at producing accumulating snow across northern Pennsylvania, New York State, and northern into central New England. Thursday into Friday also look to support lake effect snow down wind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Behind the disturbance, we will cool back down; the weekend is looking cold and windy.

  2. #32
    The gorgeous weather continues for today. Then a complex storm system will bring some rain late this evening and tonight for southeast Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh. The rain/mix snow will advance north and east during the overnight and Tuesday, making it into Buffalo during mid overnight, reaching Syracuse during the pre-dawn hours, and Harrisburg around sunrise. The precipitation reaches Burlington very late morning or early afternoon. Many of us, could see a dry slot, before a second-round resumes everything. This first system will be fairly weakÖ.so not a lot is expected. The mix of rain snow will taper off and end Wednesday morning.

    Then later Wednesday and Thursday, a stronger area of low pressure will develop along a slow-moving cold front. This storm will move just west of the Appalachians, then over western Pennsylvania and close to central New York State. Precipitation most likely will start as rain/rain mix. But as cold air mixes in with the rapidly intensifying storm. rain will change over to snow for many of us, including places like Pittsburgh. The exact track will determine who sees what and how much. But several inches of snow will be possible across interior northern New York State and northern New England for Wednesday night and Thursday. The snow would taper off Friday. Strong gusty winds will be possible.

    Lake effect snow will setup down wind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Thursday into at least Friday. Lake snows will at first fall near Buffalo and north of the Tug Hill. But then they will shift south toward the Boston Hills/ Southern Tier, and the Tug Hill. These are the areas that will see the bulk of the lake snow. This could end up being the first major lake effect event this winter.

  3. #33
    The next couple of days will see a gradual drop in temperatures. As Iíve been saying for the last several days we will be dealing with a couple of disturbances this week. The first will be coming through today into Wednesday. Then a much stronger system for Wednesday into Thursday.

    The first system will bring scattered rain and higher elevation snow showers, with most of us seeing mainly rain, but those higher elevations of northern Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey, northern New Hampshire and Massachusetts, New York State (south of I-90) basically a trace to an inch. Those north of there could see 1- maybe 3 inches of snow, especially in the higher elevations.

    Wednesday and Thursday, will see the second system roll through. This will produce more snow/mix/rain. Most of us should see mostly rain, before colder air wraps around changing over to a mix/snow. There is going to be a sharp cutoff between the heavier snow amounts and those who see a couple of inches. Those in the higher elevations ( around 1000 feet +) of New York State and northern new England have a chance to see 6-12 inches of snow. Here is a map that shows my accumulation ideas. Itís been warm so lower elevations will might not see snow stick at first. Wind gust of 30-45 mph can be expected.

    Behind this storm, cold arctic air is going to move over the warm wide-open Great Lakes. This is shaping up to be a perfect setup for a prolonged significant lake snow event. Those across the Tug Hill and Higher terrain south of Buffalo will be measuring snow in feet; this will be especially true for those East of Lake Ontario. Strong winds will result in blowing and drifting snow, resulting in difficult to near impossible travel under the heaviest bands. Friday and Friday night will see the lake snows drift south. This will bring the Ontario band into the area around Syracuse and along the south lake shore of Ontario sometime Friday night. Here is a map that shows my thoughts on where the heaviest lake snow amounts will be.

  4. #34
    Our 2nd disturbance is developing. Later today into tonight the storm will move along that slow-moving cold front, then quickly deepen over Ohio and Pennsylvania. Then tonight into Thursday morning the low looks to track between Rochester and Syracuse, then it will move into Southeast Canada. As I’ve been saying the storm is going to be dynamic. The models have been flipping back and forth. Here is a map that shows what I think general snow amounts will look like (not counting lake effect snow) Winds are going to be very gusty with wind gust of 35-50 mph. The snow is going to be very heavy and wet. With the wet snow and gusty winds, power outages are going to be possible tomorrow. So, be prepared. For those in northern New York State and northern New England, The higher your elevation, the more snow you'll see.

    The storm is going to stall over Quebec. This is going to lead to a long duration lake effect event down wind of the Great Lakes. As I said, winds are going to be gusty, winds could be gusty enough at times to produce ground blizzard conditions under the heaviest snow bands. The NWS is starting to post Blizzard Warnings near the Great Lakes. Strong wind gusts will last into at least Friday afternoon. Here is a map that shows my lake effect snow amount ideas.

    Snow/mix/rain is going to be very variable over the next few days, these maps are general and are to just give you an idea how things look to go.

  5. #35
    Before the lake effect started up, I received 10 inches of snow. How much if any did all yíall get?

    Here is a look at radar and current conditions. The storm is moving away. The snow/mix/rain will taper off from southwest to northeast across Maine later this afternoon/early evening and should end tonight as the storm pulls away from the region. Behind the strong area of high pressure, colder air is moving in.

    Lake effect snow bands are developing, and will basically stay in place for the next 48 to 72 hours. The areas south and east of Buffalo and the Tug Hill Plateau into the western Adirondacks will see the bulk of the snow. Western Pennsylvania including Pittsburgh are seeing lake snow off of Lake Erie. The lake snow bands should shift southeast Friday evening/night bringing snow into the Mohawk Valley, Syracuse, and along the south shore of Lake Ontario. Those outside the lake bands wonít see much if any weather impacts. Here is a map showing my thoughts on lake snow amounts.

    Winds will continue to ramp up this afternoon. Wind gust of 40-60 mph, will cause white out conditions resulting in difficult to impossible travel downwind of Lakes Ontario and Erie. The National Weather Service has expanded the Blizzard Warnings.

    The National Weather Service has also issued a Lakeshore Flood Warning for Erie and Chautauqua counties until 1 am Friday, and for Oswego and Jefferson counties through 10 am Friday. High winds and large waves will result in a lot of beach erosion.

  6. #36
    The lake effect event is well underway.

    The main road (route 177) through Barnes Corners has been closed since earlier this afternoon. Right now, the snow is coming down at a fairly good clip, I would say 3 inches per hour. The band is going to intensify later this evening into the overnight. Winds have been a steady 35-40 mph, with gust to over 50 mph. This is pushing the snow around pretty good. The blizzard conditions will continue into tomorrow. All of this is causing, dangerous travel conditions, especially on I-81, Route 12 and Route 11, South of the Jefferson County line into Oswego and Lewis Counties. The same thing is occurring south of Buffalo The high winds have led to an empty tractor trailer ban on I-90 from the Lackawanna Toll Barrier (Exit 55) to the Pennsylvania state line. I 87 is also having a lot of issues. The Lake Erie band extends as far as Norwich, NY.l.p.

  7. #37
    Sorry for no forecast post today, but Iíve been busy helping with snow removal. The snow belts have been dealing with blizzard like conditions and bitterly cold wind chills since yesterday.

    Last night I went out and violated the Sheriff department recommendation. Here a a couple of pictures I took during that drive.

    This afternoon the main lake effect band as been to my north. Before that happened, I picked up 39 inches of snow. Over the last few hours Iíve been getting moderate snow. Right now, there are multiple lake snow bands coming off of Lake Ontario. That band north of Watertown, is going to drop back south onto the Tug Hill in a couple of hours. When the band shifts the multiple bands will consolidate into one strong band once again. This evening into tonight I expect to see another 10-16 inches of snow. Tonight, into the Overnight, the band will shift into the Mohawk Valley and into the areas around and south of Syracuse. These areas will pick up 6 to around 12 inches of snow.

    The same thing going off of Lake Ontario, is happening off of Lake Erie. The lake snow bands south of Buffalo will intensifying this evening and especially into tonight. Those under the main band in the higher elevations can expect another 4-10 inches or so of lake snow.

    Tomorrow will see periods lake snow ow showers throughout the day Saturday. The lingering lake effect snow should start to dissipate as we approach Sunday morning. Saturday will still see cold air and gusty winds, but not as windy as itís been.

    I will post more pictures tomorrow after things calm down.

    Goodnight

  8. #38
    Well, weíve made it to Meteorological Spring. Some are happy; but many are upset with the snow situation so far this season. Up here in Barnes Corners have seen over 200 inches this winter, with most likely more to come. But I know many across southern New England, Pennsylvania, into the Middle Atlantic Region, havenít done well at all this season, at least so far. Now we will see what March has instore for us.

    Today We have high pressure overhead, so itís going to be chilly but Sunny. Here is a look at satellite.

    A look at the week ahead:

    This coming week is going to see it trend warmer and more active.

    Tomorrow weíre going to see this high pressure start to move away, and this will allow a southerly flow to setup bringing in milder air. Later tomorrow into tomorrow night a weak cold front will move into our region; This front looks to stall over New England on Tuesday. Another front will approach from the west behind the first, we will see a series of areas of low pressure develop along the front, these will keep our weather unsettled. Later Monday into Tuesday will see scattered rain showers for most of us. But there could be some mixing of snow, sleet and maybe a bit of freezing rain across the higher elevations of Upstate New York and Northern New England. Another system will move through later Tuesday into Wednesday. This should mainly be a rain maker, as temperatures look to be mild. But I canít rule out a chance for some mixing across those typically higher elevations.

    For Thursday into Saturday things become a bit more complex. We will have a disturbance in the northern stream and a disturbance in the southern stream. We will see a strong cold front approach and move through later Thursday into Friday. It is possible that these two storms phase and cause our region some bigger snow issues. But right now, it looks like there wonít be any phase. If that is the case, we will see warmer temperatures at the start resulting in rain. Then as the colder air drifts in for later Friday into Saturday, that rain most likely will change over to a snow/mix for the same areas that have been seeing wintry weather. So, for now, this end of week event, doesnít look like a major storm. But that can change. So, we will see.

  9. #39
    The first part of this is week will feature warmer temperatures. Wednesday will see temperatures cool off slightly. The cooling trend will continue into Saturday

    Our next disturbance is approaching the Ohio Valley. This will produce on and off rain showers for late this afternoon /tonight that last into Wednesday. The front will stall over Pennsylvania and New England. Those in northern areas will see a change over to a rain/snow mix on Wednesday (especially in higher elevations). Thursday is looking breezy but basically quiet ahead of an approaching cold front.

    Then we will be watching a couple of shortwaves, one in the active northern stream, the other on the southern stream. To get a major northeast Mid-Atlantic Northeast storm, we will need both of these shortwaves to phase (interact). Right now, a phase looks to happen too late for a Northeast storm. (as its been all winter timing is everything). The northern system looks to suppress the southern system just enough to the south that it should remain offshore. The resulting ocean storm looks to stay far enough south and east of our region as to have little impact on our region.

    But that doesnít mean we wonít see any rain/mix/ snow. The northern system will move over Upstate New York and Northern New England dragging a strong cold front through our region. Winds will be very blustery for Friday into Saturday. Much of Pennsylvania and the Mid Atlantic will stay mainly rain. while western and northern Pennsylvania will likely see the rain mix with or end with snow but I donít expect much in the way of accumulation. Those in Upstate New York, and northern New England, and perhaps as far south as Massachusetts will end up with some accumulating snow for Friday into Saturday.

    But if the timing changes, end of week could be a bigger deal for the Northeast.

    Daylight Saving Time arrives on Sunday.

  10. #40
    An approaching cold front in the Ohio Valley is causing rain showers donít be surprised if you hear a rumble of thunder. The cold front will move through tonight into Wednesday. Rain will continue through the overnight, with some snow/mix across the higher elevations of northern New York State and northern New England. A trace to an inch is possible across upstate New York and northern into central New England. With places like the Tug Hill seeing 1-3 inches of snow.

    Tomorrow the front will stall for a bit over western Pennsylvania and New England for a bit; then it will surge east tomorrow late afternoon into Tuesday evening/night. So, expect rain showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening. Those northern areas will still be dealing with a snow/mix into Wednesday. We will turn a bit cooler for Wednesday with breezy winds. Scattered rain showers and scattered higher elevation snow showers across northern areas. Not much in the way of accumulations, but a dusting to a couple of inches in some of the higher elevations by the end of Wednesday.

    High pressure will build overhead for Thursday leading to mostly sunny skies and lighter winds compared to Wednesday. I canít rule out a few snow showers in the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites. The Cooler air will continue to build into the region, but most of us will still see above average temperatures.

    Then for Friday into Saturday, a strong cold front will move through. Winds will be quite blustery with the frontal passage. We will see a northern clipper and a piece of energy off the Coast. What we see will depend on how much they interact (phase). Here is a look at the current positions of the northern and southern streams. Right now, it looks like the interaction will be light. So, Pennsylvania into the Middle Atlantic and southern New England will see primarily rain, with perhaps some mixing as the colder air moves in. Those in northern areas will see a change over to snow, with accumulating snow possible.

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