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  1. #21
    Up north place to be


    Here is a look at advisories from the NWS. They basically extend from route 80 in Pennsylvania, into most of New York State and a big chunk of New England.

    General idea of P-type

    Northwest Pennsylvania, western New York and especially areas along and north of I-90 (including Albany northward) in NYS, Vermont, New Hampshire, into Maine, will see a general 3-8-inch snowfall, with higher amounts possible, especially downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Northern, western into central Pennsylvania, Mid and Lower Hudson Valley, western into central Connecticut, Coastal Maine, Massachusetts away from the Cape a trace to 3 inches (Boston could end up with around 1 inch), the Berkshires the Pocono and Catskill Mountains could see a bit more than that. Long Island, Cape, Offshore Islands, most of New Jersey, southern and Southeast Pennsylvania into Maryland and Delaware it will be primarily rain, with a general 0.50-1.25 inches of rain possible, there could be a few higher amounts in spots.

    General Timing.

    Southwest Pennsylvania will see rain/mix move in later this afternoon, it should make it into Pittsburgh by 5-6 PM, rain will become heavy at times during the overnight. Tomorrow morning rain could change over to some light snow. Before changing back to rain. All of this will push north and east. Western New York State and Buffalo should see light snow starting 6-8 pm tonight. Snow will start around 10 pm for Syracuse and Albany. This will make it into western Massachusetts and western Connecticut by Midnight. Snow will move into Vermont and New Hampshire during the early Overnight. Boston should see a snow/mix by 1-2 am, Snow/mix should be into Maine by 4 am. Rain makes it into Philadelphia by 7-8 pm. New York City and Long Island should see rain/mix 8-10 pm. Baltimore and Washington DC should see a brief break before more rain works in around your rush hour .

    Sleet and freezing rain might be an issue for Northeast Pennsylvania, Southeast New York State and Northwest New Jersey. Connecticut and southern Massachusetts look to see some sleet and freezing rain as well.

    Thursday night temperatures will start to plummet; Friday will be very cold with a strong northwest flow. Saturday is looking to be quite cold as well. Temperatures will moderate for Sunday into next week. Then we will see our next storm early next week.
    "

  2. #22
    Here is a look at advisories from the NWS. They basically extend from route 80 in Pennsylvania, into most of New York State and a big chunk of New England.

    General idea of P-type

    Northwest Pennsylvania, western New York and especially areas along and north of I-90 (including Albany northward) in NYS, Vermont, New Hampshire, into Maine, will see a general 3-8-inch snowfall, with higher amounts possible, especially downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Northern, western into central Pennsylvania, Mid and Lower Hudson Valley, western into central Connecticut, Coastal Maine, Massachusetts away from the Cape a trace to 3 inches (Boston could end up with around 1 inch), the Berkshires the Pocono and Catskill Mountains could see a bit more than that. Long Island, Cape, Offshore Islands, most of New Jersey, southern and Southeast Pennsylvania into Maryland and Delaware it will be primarily rain, with a general 0.50-1.25 inches of rain possible, there could be a few higher amounts in spots.

    General Timing.

    Southwest Pennsylvania will see rain/mix move in later this afternoon, it should make it into Pittsburgh by 5-6 PM, rain will become heavy at times during the overnight. Tomorrow morning rain could change over to some light snow. Before changing back to rain. All of this will push north and east. Western New York State and Buffalo should see light snow starting 6-8 pm tonight. Snow will start around 10 pm for Syracuse and Albany. This will make it into western Massachusetts and western Connecticut by Midnight. Snow will move into Vermont and New Hampshire during the early Overnight. Boston should see a snow/mix by 1-2 am, Snow/mix should be into Maine by 4 am. Rain makes it into Philadelphia by 7-8 pm. New York City and Long Island should see rain/mix 8-10 pm. Baltimore and Washington DC should see a brief break before more rain works in around your rush hour .

    Sleet and freezing rain might be an issue for Northeast Pennsylvania, Southeast New York State and Northwest New Jersey. Connecticut and southern Massachusetts look to see some sleet and freezing rain as well.

    Thursday night temperatures will start to plummet; Friday will be very cold with a strong northwest flow. Saturday is looking to be quite cold as well. Temperatures will moderate for Sunday into next week. Then we will see our next storm early next week.

  3. #23
    The 3rd wave of low pressure will be exiting the region. Allowing for true arctic air to move into the region. This are will be the coldest we’ve seen, since before Christmas. The rain and scattered snow we’re experiencing will continue to push to the east. Northern New York State and Northern New England can expect another 1-2 inches with perhaps 2-4 inches in the higher elevations. Closer to the lakes, scattered lake snow, with a few bands developing, these areas could see another 2-4 inches of snow.

    On the radar/satellite image we can see a series of cold fronts retreating ahead of the approaching arctic air. There is warm air moving north and east ahead of all of this. All of these fronts will consolidate and move off the coast tomorrow. Friday and Saturday are going to be very cold; this cold shot will be Short-lived. Sunday into next week will see temperature rebound.

    Friday will see gusty winds, these will make the already brutal cold, feel even worse. The winds should start to subside Friday evening/night. As winds calm, conditions will allow for temperatures to plummet, leading to near or even record-breaking temperatures for the overnight into Saturday morning.

    A weak clipper will move across our northern areas on Sunday. Rains showers for southern areas and snow showers for northern areas. Behind the clipper temperatures will drop slightly. Then for Tuesday and Wednesday we will see another system approach and move through bringing another bout of rain/mix/snow. Behind the midweek storm we will cool off once again.

  4. #24
    ALLSKIING's Avatar
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    Unfortunately her long term forecast busted with the rest of the forecasters.

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    Dave
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  5. #25
    It’s been quite a while, but the Arctic air is back... Here is a look at the 24-hour temperature change.

    The heart of winter 2019-2020 has been very warm. the Arctic Oscillation has been mostly in a positive phase since early December, around 83% of the time. The Eastern Pacific Oscillation have been in a primarily warm phase this winter as well. These two teleconnections are two of the main reasons for the mild conditions this winter. They are the reasons for the behavior and placement of the jet streams. January 2020 temperatures were above average for nearly every U.S. climate division of the Lower 48 states. Ice cover on the Great Lakes is well below average.

    The NAO, AO and the EPO are trending lower (colder). The MJO is also showing signs to a shift to cooler phases. So is the idea that more cold and snow this winter is preposterous, right? Most likely not. We have seen many recent winters become cold and snowy. So, there is no reason to think this winter can’t do the same. Often time, snowy winters in the I-95 are the result of one or two storms. We’ve seen winters over the last 10 years where March into April became very wintry. So, the fact that more cold and snow is likely to occur at some point shouldn’t be a surprise.

    But will it really matter?

  6. #26
    Well today is surely warmer, than Friday and yesterday.

    This evening into tonight we will see a weak disturbance with a cold front move through. This disturbance won’t have a lot of moisture with it. But isolated snow showers to the north and mix/rain showers to the south are possible. Higher elevation areas in our northern areas could end up with some light accumulations, but for everyone else, little to no accumulation is expected.

    Presidents’ Day will be a little cooler than today, but temperatures will be close to seasonable.

    For Monday night into Wednesday we will see a strong area of low pressure move over the Great Lakes. We will also have high pressure over Atlantic Canada. Temperatures will be marginal, but we could hang on to the cold long enough for some snow to start for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and New England. Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York State and Southern New England will quickly change over to a mix/rain, while areas to the north keep the cold longer. As far as snowfall. This won’t be a huge snow maker, New York State (north of the southern tier and Central into Northern New England will see a general 2-4 inches with higher elevations like the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites seeing a general 3-6 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Poconos Catskills, and Berkshires around 1-3 inches, with most other areas a dusting to an inch possible. The same areas that have been getting the rain this winter, look to continue that streak with this disturbance.

    Behind this disturbance we will see a short lived arctic air mass move back in. So rain, could change back over to some snow on the tail end of the Tuesday into Wednesday disturbance.
    Finally good stuff lol

  7. #27
    Well today is surely warmer, than Friday and yesterday.

    This evening into tonight we will see a weak disturbance with a cold front move through. This disturbance won’t have a lot of moisture with it. But isolated snow showers to the north and mix/rain showers to the south are possible. Higher elevation areas in our northern areas could end up with some light accumulations, but for everyone else, little to no accumulation is expected.

    Presidents’ Day will be a little cooler than today, but temperatures will be close to seasonable.

    For Monday night into Wednesday we will see a strong area of low pressure move over the Great Lakes. We will also have high pressure over Atlantic Canada. Temperatures will be marginal, but we could hang on to the cold long enough for some snow to start for parts of Pennsylvania, New York State and New England. Pennsylvania and the southern tier of New York State and Southern New England will quickly change over to a mix/rain, while areas to the north keep the cold longer. As far as snowfall. This won’t be a huge snow maker, New York State (north of the southern tier and Central into Northern New England will see a general 2-4 inches with higher elevations like the Adirondacks, Greens, and Whites seeing a general 3-6 inches with isolated higher amounts possible. Poconos Catskills, and Berkshires around 1-3 inches, with most other areas a dusting to an inch possible. The same areas that have been getting the rain this winter, look to continue that streak with this disturbance.

    Behind this disturbance we will see a short lived arctic air mass move back in. So rain, could change back over to some snow on the tail end of the Tuesday into Wednesday disturbance.

  8. #28
    Today we have high pressure building in with seasonal temperatures. We do have a cold front over upstate New York back through northern New England, but the real cold is going to stay up in Canada. Looking at radar, we can see our next system approaching out of the Midwest.

    This isn’t going to be a really organized system, but it will bring us some snow/mix/rain.

    For the Mid Atlantic, most of Pennsylvania, and southern New England will see all or mostly all rain, generally 0.10-0.50 of an inch of rain is likely. While areas north of there see snow/mix, with a change over to rain for some.



    Across upstate New York snow will develop after midnight, then move west to east across New York State and northern into central New England. Snow will make it into Vermont early to mid-morning on Tuesday, the snow will should move into New Hampshire and western Maine between before noon. Then into eastern Maine around mid-afternoon. The snow will come down fast at times.

    This is going to be a fast-moving system so snow should start to taper off during the day into Tuesday evening. Snow will change to a mix/rain along the seacoast of Maine and New Hampshire fairly quickly. Interior areas will hang on to snow longer resulting in higher accumulations. Most of us will see a change over to rain/mix at some point, with the higher elevations seeing more in the way of snow.

    Here is a map showing my ideas for general snow/mix accumulations.

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