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  1. #31
    The up and down temperature roller-coaster is looking to continue as we move forward. Also, this stretch of quiet weather we’ve had continues for today and tomorrow; then we will see a little hiccup.

    After a cold start, today has become quite warm, tomorrow will be even warmer. Then for Tuesday into Thursday we will see a disturbance move through. Already, we see moisture streaming out of the Southwest heading our way.

    Monday night into Tuesday temperatures will be warm enough, that rain will be in the cards for all of us. Places like Pittsburgh and Buffalo will most likely see scattered showers Monday afternoon but more in the way of widespread rain arrives late in the evening/night. This will all move from south and west to north and east across the region for Tuesday. Northern areas most likely will change over to some sleet and snow by Tuesday night which would continue into Wednesday morning.

    Catskills getting nothing good again.


    Then Wednesday into Thursday another low develops and moves over the lower Great Lakes and western Pennsylvania and western New York State. This 2nd disturbance will have a better shot at producing accumulating snow across northern Pennsylvania, New York State, and northern into central New England. Thursday into Friday also look to support lake effect snow down wind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Behind the disturbance, we will cool back down; the weekend is looking cold and windy.

  2. #32
    The gorgeous weather continues for today. Then a complex storm system will bring some rain late this evening and tonight for southeast Pennsylvania and Pittsburgh. The rain/mix snow will advance north and east during the overnight and Tuesday, making it into Buffalo during mid overnight, reaching Syracuse during the pre-dawn hours, and Harrisburg around sunrise. The precipitation reaches Burlington very late morning or early afternoon. Many of us, could see a dry slot, before a second-round resumes everything. This first system will be fairly weak….so not a lot is expected. The mix of rain snow will taper off and end Wednesday morning.

    Then later Wednesday and Thursday, a stronger area of low pressure will develop along a slow-moving cold front. This storm will move just west of the Appalachians, then over western Pennsylvania and close to central New York State. Precipitation most likely will start as rain/rain mix. But as cold air mixes in with the rapidly intensifying storm. rain will change over to snow for many of us, including places like Pittsburgh. The exact track will determine who sees what and how much. But several inches of snow will be possible across interior northern New York State and northern New England for Wednesday night and Thursday. The snow would taper off Friday. Strong gusty winds will be possible.

    Lake effect snow will setup down wind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Thursday into at least Friday. Lake snows will at first fall near Buffalo and north of the Tug Hill. But then they will shift south toward the Boston Hills/ Southern Tier, and the Tug Hill. These are the areas that will see the bulk of the lake snow. This could end up being the first major lake effect event this winter.

  3. #33
    The next couple of days will see a gradual drop in temperatures. As I’ve been saying for the last several days we will be dealing with a couple of disturbances this week. The first will be coming through today into Wednesday. Then a much stronger system for Wednesday into Thursday.

    The first system will bring scattered rain and higher elevation snow showers, with most of us seeing mainly rain, but those higher elevations of northern Pennsylvania, northwest New Jersey, northern New Hampshire and Massachusetts, New York State (south of I-90) basically a trace to an inch. Those north of there could see 1- maybe 3 inches of snow, especially in the higher elevations.

    Wednesday and Thursday, will see the second system roll through. This will produce more snow/mix/rain. Most of us should see mostly rain, before colder air wraps around changing over to a mix/snow. There is going to be a sharp cutoff between the heavier snow amounts and those who see a couple of inches. Those in the higher elevations ( around 1000 feet +) of New York State and northern new England have a chance to see 6-12 inches of snow. Here is a map that shows my accumulation ideas. It’s been warm so lower elevations will might not see snow stick at first. Wind gust of 30-45 mph can be expected.

    Behind this storm, cold arctic air is going to move over the warm wide-open Great Lakes. This is shaping up to be a perfect setup for a prolonged significant lake snow event. Those across the Tug Hill and Higher terrain south of Buffalo will be measuring snow in feet; this will be especially true for those East of Lake Ontario. Strong winds will result in blowing and drifting snow, resulting in difficult to near impossible travel under the heaviest bands. Friday and Friday night will see the lake snows drift south. This will bring the Ontario band into the area around Syracuse and along the south lake shore of Ontario sometime Friday night. Here is a map that shows my thoughts on where the heaviest lake snow amounts will be.

  4. #34
    Our 2nd disturbance is developing. Later today into tonight the storm will move along that slow-moving cold front, then quickly deepen over Ohio and Pennsylvania. Then tonight into Thursday morning the low looks to track between Rochester and Syracuse, then it will move into Southeast Canada. As I’ve been saying the storm is going to be dynamic. The models have been flipping back and forth. Here is a map that shows what I think general snow amounts will look like (not counting lake effect snow) Winds are going to be very gusty with wind gust of 35-50 mph. The snow is going to be very heavy and wet. With the wet snow and gusty winds, power outages are going to be possible tomorrow. So, be prepared. For those in northern New York State and northern New England, The higher your elevation, the more snow you'll see.



    The storm is going to stall over Quebec. This is going to lead to a long duration lake effect event down wind of the Great Lakes. As I said, winds are going to be gusty, winds could be gusty enough at times to produce ground blizzard conditions under the heaviest snow bands. The NWS is starting to post Blizzard Warnings near the Great Lakes. Strong wind gusts will last into at least Friday afternoon. Here is a map that shows my lake effect snow amount ideas.

    Snow/mix/rain is going to be very variable over the next few days, these maps are general and are to just give you an idea how things look to go.

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