New storm on the way

JimG. · Feb 12, 2020

K was pretty awesome today packed powder with 3-4" on top 100% open.

Hopefully more snow tonight.

bdfreetuna · Feb 12, 2020

^
Howzit in the woods? 100% open surprises me but I haven't skied K this year. Have a few Pico passes to use though.

JimG. · Feb 12, 2020

bdfreetuna said:
^
Howzit in the woods? 100% open surprises me but I haven't skied K this year. Have a few Pico passes to use though.

Trees good steeper trees do have some big icy spots. Very avoidable though. Another 3-4" tonight would be nice. I was amazed how good it was today. Nice weather too.

So Inclined · Feb 13, 2020

JimG. said:
K was pretty awesome today packed powder with 3-4" on top 100% open.

Hopefully more snow tonight.

My brother's been staying and riding up there for the last 4 days, and texted me yesterday to say I could come use his unit tonight since he had to leave early for work. Since last night I've been wavering on the idea of ditching work today and tomorrow for a quick solo mission from downstate NY (3 hr 45 min drive, at least) - doable, but I've been working a ton lately and trying not to wear myself down. I'm already going to be skiing all day Sat and Sun at Hunter. And a window price ticket at K is going to be like, $125, which I don't have. In short, I've come to terms with the idea that I'm sadly but smartly going to let this opportunity pass.

Thanks for not helping out at all with your update from the front lines. :razz:

Harvey · Feb 13, 2020

I dig this thread. The title especially. Always good to have a new storm on the way.

snoseek · Feb 13, 2020

Cannon was super nice today. Best of the season right now.

Bumpsis · Feb 13, 2020

snoseek said:
Cannon was super nice today. Best of the season right now.

All right!! A rare Cannon report!

skiur · Feb 14, 2020

So Inclined said:
My brother's been staying and riding up there for the last 4 days, and texted me yesterday to say I could come use his unit tonight since he had to leave early for work. Since last night I've been wavering on the idea of ditching work today and tomorrow for a quick solo mission from downstate NY (3 hr 45 min drive, at least) - doable, but I've been working a ton lately and trying not to wear myself down. I'm already going to be skiing all day Sat and Sun at Hunter. And a window price ticket at K is going to be like, $125, which I don't have. In short, I've come to terms with the idea that I'm sadly but smartly going to let this opportunity pass.

Thanks for not helping out at all with your update from the front lines. :razz:

I would ditch the insanely crowded weekend at hunter and spend that money on a much less crowded Friday at K.

ScottySkis · Feb 14, 2020

Harvey said:
I dig this thread. The title especially. Always good to have a new storm on the way.

+1
From Matt on Facebook
" TUE-WED STORM UPDATE #2: The Trend Is Not Good
The ECMWF's more northerly track is winning, and that's not the one we wanted to win. The tracks of the two main medium range models are now quite similar, but that's not to say that this can't shift south or even further north, but the trend is presently north. Troublesome impacts look like they could start Tuesday morning in W-NY and reach NH by close. The trailing cold front should come through overnight. As always, this is just an update as to how things look now. Things will not start getting dialed in until Saturday.

This is not a very strong storm. These 6-hour precipitation intensity maps can be misleading at times. A surface low of around 1000mb is not strong, however there is at least one upper level low and a trough involved, and it appears on the current track generally less than 1" of frozen and unfrozen water will fall in the Northeast. The closer CT you go in general, the less the impact will be.

Under the current model solution your best bet for all snow is north of the St. Lawrence. Le Massif, Mont Sainte-Anne, and Tremblant potentially look good, but they are not necessarily fully safe from some mixing. Areas that might net a base are N-NY, N-NH, and N-ME, but not necessarily N-VT. N-ME is the safest in the Northeast due to the possibility that cold air damming could keep precipitation frozen, though that doesn't necessarily mean good, rather it means they are the most likely to see improvement in the models.

Sirbannedalot · Feb 14, 2020

ScottySkis said:
+1
From Matt on Facebook
" TUE-WED STORM UPDATE #2: The Trend Is Not Good
The ECMWF's more northerly track is winning, and that's not the one we wanted to win. The tracks of the two main medium range models are now quite similar, but that's not to say that this can't shift south or even further north, but the trend is presently north. Troublesome impacts look like they could start Tuesday morning in W-NY and reach NH by close. The trailing cold front should come through overnight. As always, this is just an update as to how things look now. Things will not start getting dialed in until Saturday.

This is not a very strong storm. These 6-hour precipitation intensity maps can be misleading at times. A surface low of around 1000mb is not strong, however there is at least one upper level low and a trough involved, and it appears on the current track generally less than 1" of frozen and unfrozen water will fall in the Northeast. The closer CT you go in general, the less the impact will be.

Under the current model solution your best bet for all snow is north of the St. Lawrence. Le Massif, Mont Sainte-Anne, and Tremblant potentially look good, but they are not necessarily fully safe from some mixing. Areas that might net a base are N-NY, N-NH, and N-ME, but not necessarily N-VT. N-ME is the safest in the Northeast due to the possibility that cold air damming could keep precipitation frozen, though that doesn't necessarily mean good, rather it means they are the most likely to see improvement in the models.

Matt is a moron. He just regurgitates noaa and creates dummy maps for bigger idiots that can't interpret the data. Also if you post an emoji he doesn't like, he will ban you.

ScottySkis · Feb 14, 2020

Sirbannedalot said:
Matt is a moron. He just regurgitates noaa and creates dummy maps for bigger idiots that can't interpret the data. Also if you post an emoji he doesn't like, he will ban you.

So what will weather be next week

Sirbannedalot · Feb 14, 2020

ScottySkis said:
So what will weather be next week

Anyone who tells you with any certainty this week about next week is wrong. Better to wait until early in the week to get a better idea. Weather changes way to often.

BenedictGomez · Feb 14, 2020

Sirbannedalot said:
Matt is a moron. He just regurgitates noaa and creates dummy maps for bigger idiots that can't interpret the data. Also if you post an emoji he doesn't like, he will ban you.

You got banned? Color me shocked.

slatham · Feb 14, 2020

Sirbannedalot said:
Anyone who tells you with any certainty this week about next week is wrong. Better to wait until early in the week to get a better idea. Weather changes way to often.

True. That said, one can give a warning that a storm is coming with a potentially unfriendly track resulting in at least some mixing - which has been the norm this winter. But too far out for details, and you cannot rule out a snowier solution (though the opposite is also true).

Edit: Case in point, the 12Z Euro just flipped back to a colder solution, though there would be some mixing most areas except near the border. Just not a great set up and all snow would involve some luck and would be a razor thin close call.

kingslug · Feb 14, 2020

Im at Stowe..its 12 below..its all i know..time for bed...

drjeff · Feb 15, 2020

-6 on the Mount Snow Summit Stake webcam, 0 on my back deck weather station sensor at about 2100 feet. No wind, not a cloud in the sky...

Time to tear it up early, and aggressively before the likely utter crowd chaos begins around 10!! (If not sooner)

Likely going to be a bunch of reports of record setting crowds this weekend.

Enjoy the snow, and be safe!

Sent from my Moto Z (2) using AlpineZone mobile app

ScottySkis · Feb 15, 2020

Warm day not
Glad I didn't walk this morning to bus and deal with froze cold walk to extremely hot bus
And decided to not ski today
I sure weather temperature on BellFlat I would be ok with my ski clothes
And extremely hot internal temperature in my body.
But conditions in Catskills definitely not appealing guess I old now

BenedictGomez · Feb 15, 2020

With temps this cold, record setting crowds will surprise me.

bdfreetuna · Feb 15, 2020

snoseek said:
Cannon was super nice today. Best of the season right now.

sweet planning to go Wednesday. I was pretty happy to see them go from zero open woods to 99% open.

Hopefully at least a few inches of snow materialize up there Tuesday night

kingslug · Feb 15, 2020

Pretty cold here at SB..5 runs in..time to warm the toes

New storm on the way

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