Vail suspending all ski operations immediately

BenedictGomez · Mar 30, 2020

ss20 said:
BG may be able to answer this better than my 3 economics classes from college but I'd say we're bound for a year of deflation rather than inflation.

Demand is down for pretty much everything, suppliers are going to have to lower their prices to lure people out of their houses. And they can because gas is so cheap the cost of transport is going down rapidly. Less spending and people holding onto their money=less money in the supply chain.

So much $$$$ is being injected into the economy I'd worry more about inflation as a significant risk in a few years than deflation.

It may be optimistic thinking, but I'm not convinced the US economy is long-term going to be that crushed by this. This was nothing systemic, it was a black swan event, and one that is fleeting to boot. I worry more about relatively low-margin small businesses that may not be able to survive a long closure (restaurants, etc.), but supposedly the bulk of the Trump rescue package targets small business. All-in-all, my fingers are crossed, but I'm very hopeful.

deadheadskier · Mar 30, 2020

I'm hopeful as well, but I don't thing we know the effect right now of what essentially will be a two month unexpected job loss for tens of millions of Americans. And that's the best case scenario. Yes, they'll be getting stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. Small businesses will get help too.

How does this change consumer psychology though? I bet many are thinking, "This would be a whole lot easier to get through without a car payment or high monthly CC bill." People are going to think good and hard about replacing cars, renovation projects, vacations, dining out as often, new skis, etc. The real estate market likely slows too. Young people who have been saving for first homes and have seen their investments wrecked might wait a year to have full confidence that we are back to normal before taking the plunge.

I don't think it will be as bad as 2008 as like you said, this isn't a systemic problem. However it has been pretty scary for a huge amount of people and supposedly we haven't seen the worst of it yet. Hard to predict how quickly that fear goes away.

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BenedictGomez · Mar 30, 2020

All valid points.

I fear for the housing market most of all, as it was already unrealistically too expensive to begin with & IMO near or at Housing Bubble 2.0 levels in many, if not most, US markets. Most people dont realize prices were getting close to 2006/7 Housing Bubble prices on an inflation-adjusted basis. That's scary enough without coronavirus.

dblskifanatic · Apr 18, 2020

So we just emails from attorneys wanting to start a class action law suit against Vail. F’n blood suckers! There claim is that the season pass was providing a product that was for a period of October to June and by closing down they are not doing so. The attorneys will make millions while the pass holders will get pocket change.

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Edd · Apr 18, 2020

dblskifanatic said:
So we just emails from attorneys wanting to start a class action law suit against Vail. F’n blood suckers! There claim is that the season pass was providing a product that was for a period of October to June and by closing down they are not doing so. The attorneys will make millions while the pass holders will get pocket change.

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That does not make me happy. Kicking the ski industry while it’s down.

BenedictGomez · Apr 18, 2020

dblskifanatic said:
So we just emails from attorneys wanting to start a class action law suit against Vail. F’n blood suckers! There claim is that the season pass was providing a product that was for a period of October to June and by closing down they are not doing so. The attorneys will make millions while the pass holders will get pocket change.

The entire nation declared a State of Emergency, I doubt the bloodsuckers make anything; I doubt Vail would even settle this out-of-court.

Not Sure · Apr 18, 2020

BenedictGomez said:
All valid points.

I fear for the housing market most of all, as it was already unrealistically too expensive to begin with & IMO near or at Housing Bubble 2.0 levels in many, if not most, US markets. Most people dont realize prices were getting close to 2006/7 Housing Bubble prices on an inflation-adjusted basis. That's scary enough without coronavirus.

Hopefully banks won’t tighten up lending requirements. Rates are lower again I’m thinking that might preserve some value.
I just put a house on the market 4 days ago and am encouraged by the over 1200 views and 37 saves on Zillow . I’m sure it’s not going to be the sellers market it was before but hoping for close to what it was .

VTKilarney · Apr 18, 2020

Siliconebobsquarepants said:
Hopefully banks won’t tighten up lending requirements. Rates are lower again I’m thinking that might preserve some value.
I just put a house on the market 4 days ago and am encouraged by the over 1200 views and 37 saves on Zillow . I’m sure it’s not going to be the sellers market it was before but hoping for close to what it was .

They’ve already tightened up lending requirements. Take a look at this article.

https://www.dallasnews.com/business...he-credit-bar-for-homebuyers-and-refinancers/

And Chase just announced that they are no longer offering HELOCs.

A lot of your views are probably bottom feeders.

BenedictGomez · Apr 18, 2020

Siliconebobsquarepants said:
Hopefully banks won’t tighten up lending requirements.

Too late.

https://in.reuters.com/article/jp-m...NKCN21U02O?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews

I feel very confident that whatever the ven diagram of Americans with a >= 700 credit score who are also capable of putting 20% down for a house is dramatically smaller than the pool of overall home buyers. That will equate to some forced hit in buying demand.

Jcb890 · Apr 19, 2020

BenedictGomez said:
The entire nation declared a State of Emergency, I doubt the bloodsuckers make anything; I doubt Vail would even settle this out-of-court.

Agreed.

I didn't check the site, but I would be surprised if they mention October - June and there's no way they actually guarantee skiing from October - June.

dblskifanatic · Apr 19, 2020

Now showing up on Facebook as Sponsored read the deets

https://topclassactions.com/lawsuit...s-skiers-owed-refund-after-covid-19-shutdown/

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machski · Apr 19, 2020

dblskifanatic said:
Now showing up on Facebook as Sponsored read the deets

https://topclassactions.com/lawsuit...s-skiers-owed-refund-after-covid-19-shutdown/

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Pretty funny, yeah Vail "enriched itself" even though they have furloughed many employees and the rest have been forced to accept reduced salaries. How am I not surprised the lead Plantiff is from California. Angry ski bro, wahh, I didn't get full use of my ridiculously cheap $499 pass!!

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dblskifanatic · Apr 20, 2020

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jimmywilson69 · Apr 21, 2020

I wonder how much of a settlement that I can get since I only used my Epic Local Pass 44 times :roll::roll::roll::roll:

drjeff · Apr 21, 2020

It's class action suit like this hat really makes we think we need some tort reform and potentially a "looser pays" clause in some instances....

trackbiker · Apr 21, 2020

drjeff said:
It's class action suit like this hat really makes we think we need some tort reform and potentially a "looser pays" clause in some instances....

Exactly. How many times have you received a card in the mail asking if you've used so-and-so product in the past X years?
The lawyers make millions and everyone else gets a coupon for 50 cents or some BS.

dblskifanatic · Apr 21, 2020

trackbiker said:
Exactly. How many times have you received a card in the mail asking if you've used so-and-so product in the past X years?
The lawyers make millions and everyone else gets a coupon for 50 cents or some BS.

Happens every time there is a class action lawsuit. Those attorneys must scour the landscape and find this that might fire up the general public to line their own pockets.

I have the Epic Veteran Pass and have used about 25 times and while I would more uses I am ok with it. My other pass I have used about 6 times and really wish I could get more days. It is what it is!

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BenedictGomez · Apr 21, 2020

dblskifanatic said:
Happens every time there is a class action lawsuit. Those attorneys must scour the landscape and find this that might fire up the general public to line their own pockets.

Exactly, and they go "jury shopping", which is why you notice so many of these class action lawsuits tend to be filed in the same handful of relatively few court systems. Agree that the entire system needs reform, but it will likely never happen.

jaytrem · Apr 21, 2020

drjeff said:
It's class action suit like this hat really makes we think we need some tort reform and potentially a "looser pays" clause in some instances....

Good idea, but I wouldn't count on Vail winning this one. I went into reading kindaon Vail's side, but I gotta admit they do make some good points. I do know a few people who got no use, or almost no use, from their Epic or Ikon. They mainly purchased it for a spring western trip.

BenedictGomez · Apr 21, 2020

jaytrem said:
They mainly purchased it for a spring western trip.

That's a good point, I hadn't considered the bizarre uniqueness of these products as "faux" season passes.

Still, that's not Vail Resort or Alterra's fault. A season pass isnt like a forward-dated advanced purchase lift ticket.

Vail suspending all ski operations immediately

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