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  1. #51
    Quote Originally Posted by Smellytele View Post
    Isn’t the test to see if people have antibodies from having it just a few weeks away. I know we won’t have 30 million of them right off the bat but and seems like a good thing to see who can get out of lockdown.




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    thats what the news is saying. Might be too late to make a huge impact this time around, but at least we'd have it for round 2 so we don't have to go through all of this again

  2. #52
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    Quote Originally Posted by icecoast1 View Post
    thats what the news is saying. Might be too late to make a huge impact this time around, but at least we'd have it for round 2 so we don't have to go through all of this again
    Well if they could test people then they can get back to living life and not worry about infected others or getting sick themselves if they test positive for the antibodies. They can even give out certificates of antibodies. They maybe doing this in Germany already.


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  3. #53
    Quote Originally Posted by Smellytele View Post
    Well if they could test people then they can get back to living life and not worry about infected others or getting sick themselves if they test positive for the antibodies. They can even give out certificates of antibodies. They maybe doing this in Germany already.
    And if only 20% of the population could meaningfully participate in the economy, it would still be an economic disaster.

  4. #54
    Quote Originally Posted by VTKilarney View Post
    And if only 20% of the population could meaningfully participate in the economy, it would still be an economic disaster.
    Not as much of a disaster as all of us staying in our homes for 12-18 months while we wait for a vaccine

  5. #55
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    Quote Originally Posted by VTKilarney View Post
    And if only 20% of the population could meaningfully participate in the economy, it would still be an economic disaster.
    It may be higher than that as many people who have little to no symptoms aren't reporting it.
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  6. #56
    Nowhere near 20% of Americans have has COVID19 already, we know that from the testing data we currently have.
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  7. #57
    Quote Originally Posted by icecoast1 View Post
    Not as much of a disaster as all of us staying in our homes for 12-18 months while we wait for a vaccine
    No argument from me. My point is that at some point they are going to have to let people out of their homes - whether or not there is a vaccine.

  8. #58
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    Nowhere near 20% of Americans have has COVID19 already, we know that from the testing data we currently have.
    Hard to say when only a little over a million have been tested. We would get a better idea if we tested for antibodies.
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  9. #59
    Quote Originally Posted by Smellytele View Post
    Hard to say when only a little over a million have been tested. We would get a better idea if we tested for antibodies.
    It's not possible for 2 reasons, one obvious, one not so obvious.

    The obvious reason is that were you to assume a possible >= 20% pop COVID19+ infection rate already, that's 66M infected Americans. Were 66M infected, even if COVID19 were 1/2 as deadly as the common flu, you'd already be at several hundred thousand deaths.

    The not obvious reason is that our current testing at > 1M tests isnt even at 20% positive, and that's with the data set being massively skewed towards positive results given you need to present a known COVID19 symptom to even get a test in the first place.
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  10. #60
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    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    It's not possible for 2 reasons, one obvious, one not so obvious.

    The obvious reason is that were you to assume a possible >= 20% pop COVID19+ infection rate already, that's 66M infected Americans. Were 66M infected, even if COVID19 were 1/2 as deadly as the common flu, you'd already be at several hundred thousand deaths.

    The not obvious reason is that our current testing at > 1M tests isnt even at 20% positive, and that's with the data set being massively skewed towards positive results given you need to present a known COVID19 symptom to even get a test in the first place.
    Actually they said 1.3 million tests have been run but a lot of labs run 2 tests per subject so the number tested could be well below 1.3.
    Also at this point how many people who have tested positive have shown no symptoms what so ever. All I am saying is we don't know how many people may have had it and didn't know and/or never got tested.
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