When skiing returns - Page 7

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  1. #61
    i'd be shocked if any hills open up in May

    gladerider

  2. #62
    Quote Originally Posted by icecoast1 View Post
    Anybody within close proximity to NYC should be stopping anybody from the city from coming into their states if they are serious about slowing the spread. Florida is starting to crack down on people flying in but drivers should be checked as well
    The fleeing of COVID19+ people from NYC is a serious problem; Dr. Birx said so in the White House press conference yesterday.
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



  3. #63
    I found a lot of comfort by looking at the link below. Particularly the fact that the death rate for those with no pre-existing conditions is only 0.9.
    https://www.worldometers.info/corona...-demographics/

    The economic impact is going to kill WAY MORE folks.

    Quote from the movie The Big Short. Brad Pitt played
    Ben Rickert:
    "If we're right, people lose homes. People lose jobs. People lose retirement savings, people lose pensions. You know what I hate about f***ing banking? It reduces people to numbers. Here's a number - every 1% unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die, did you know that?"

    Some basic calculations of an increased death rate from this recession to come IN THE US ONLY:
    So if we expect an average of a 5% increase in Unemployment over the next 5 years that means 40,000 people times 25 = 1,000,000 people will die from the recession to follow in the US alone.

    The cure is definitely going to kill more than COVID-19, no question.

    So far 23,595 people have died worldwide this virus, most with pre existing conditions.....

    Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.

    WTF?????

  4. #64
    Quote Originally Posted by jimk View Post
    This is a mental game on my part, just the product of five minutes of googling and some shaky associations by me.

    If Italy has a total pop of 60 million and current corona deaths are ~7500, and they are approaching a point where deaths will lessen each day, and projected 2020 Italy corona deaths are 30,000 (wild guess), that equals 0.05% of the population.

    If US has a total pop of 330 million and we have as bad a time as Italy and 0.05% percent of our population dies of corona in 2020, that would equal 150,000 dead people.

    Compare the 150,000 figure to leading causes of death in USA in 2017:
    Heart disease: 647,457
    Cancer: 599,108
    Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
    Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
    Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
    Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
    Diabetes: 83,564
    Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
    Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
    Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
    Roadway deaths: 40,231

    Draw your own conclusions about the economic damage from panic and over-reaction vs. the actual health damage of this crisis. I know this is way over simplified. Shoot me down if you care to.
    You are calculating 150,000 dead Americans assuming we lock down society and the economy, as Italy has (belatedly) done. But it would presumably be much more than that if we decided the economy is more important than Grandma. Also I fear that your projection of 30,000 fatalities in Italy will be on the low side, they have already surpassed 8,000 and have been averaging about 700 per day for the last few days. At that rate they will have surpassed 30,000 in about a month. This article has a sobering graph of how the number of cases is the US is accelerating faster than in Italy: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...t-overreacting

  5. #65
    Quote Originally Posted by urungus View Post
    You are calculating 150,000 dead Americans assuming we lock down society and the economy, as Italy has (belatedly) done. But it would presumably be much more than that if we decided the economy is more important than Grandma. Also I fear that your projection of 30,000 fatalities in Italy will be on the low side, they have already surpassed 8,000 and have been averaging about 700 per day for the last few days. At that rate they will have surpassed 30,000 in about a month. This article has a sobering graph of how the number of cases is the US is accelerating faster than in Italy: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2...t-overreacting
    Nobody is saying the economy is more important than Grandma. Selectively opening parts of the country to certain people is not telling Grandma to drop dead

  6. #66
    Edd's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NY DirtBag View Post
    So you guys are writing off the 20-21 winter at this point? Seems overly pessimistic

    Sent from my SM-G973U using AlpineZone mobile app
    Actually, I didn’t intend that. I must have read his post incorrectly. I think next season should be fine.

  7. #67
    Quote Originally Posted by urungus View Post
    This article has a sobering graph of how the number of cases is the US is accelerating faster than in Italy
    Vox is either intentionally trying to scare people, or whoever made that graph is a flipping idiot.

    Knowing Vox, my money is on the former.
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



  8. #68
    Quote Originally Posted by Sunday Rivah Rat View Post
    I found a lot of comfort by looking at the link below. Particularly the fact that the death rate for those with no pre-existing conditions is only 0.9.
    Yea...sure is comforting to know that only 1 out of every 100 people I know that have no pre-existing conditions would die if they get COVID-19.

    Also a somewhat interesting article about research into the impact of a recession on death rates (as opposed to numbers you used that were thrown out by a movie)...
    https://drexel.edu/now/archive/2014/...loyment-Study/

  9. #69
    Quote Originally Posted by jimk View Post
    This is a mental game on my part, just the product of five minutes of googling and some shaky associations by me.

    If Italy has a total pop of 60 million and current corona deaths are ~7500, and they are approaching a point where deaths will lessen each day, and projected 2020 Italy corona deaths are 30,000 (wild guess), that equals 0.05% of the population.

    If US has a total pop of 330 million and we have as bad a time as Italy and 0.05% percent of our population dies of corona in 2020, that would equal 150,000 dead people.

    Compare the 150,000 figure to leading causes of death in USA in 2017:
    Heart disease: 647,457
    Cancer: 599,108
    Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
    Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
    Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
    Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
    Diabetes: 83,564
    Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
    Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
    Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
    Roadway deaths: 40,231

    Draw your own conclusions about the economic damage from panic and over-reaction vs. the actual health damage of this crisis. I know this is way over simplified. Shoot me down if you care to.
    As pointed out by someone else, Italy did take preventive measures, so the toll would be higher than 300K.

    When the hospitals are in better shape (enough gear to welcome new patients), and we have testing for CV-19, then we consider loosening things up.

    How about this, we accept 300K CV-19 deaths and reduce the speed limit to 55 to compensate? Or we fully lock down everyone over 70 (ie they can't leave the house and all food is delivered). We could do that too. But these kinds of solutions tend to be impossible politically, at least in this country. China is different.

  10. #70
    Quote Originally Posted by gladerider View Post
    i'd be shocked if any hills open up in May
    Wait, is that what this thread was about? I doubt it too but still holding out some hope for may turns on superstar.

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