When skiing returns

BenedictGomez · Mar 26, 2020

Newpylong said:
Sorry to piss in the cheerios but China (a centralized authoritarian regime) cannot be compared to the United States. They locked down the hot zones fairly quickly after cases surged, closed shops, curfew, etc. Not to mention those people had smartphone apps where they had to check in, etc and so on.

I dont believe you can trust the Chinese data though. I think it's pretty safe to say they had tens-of-thousands more cases than they reported.

I also think given footage that came out early (which was cracked down on) China had many more deaths than reported. And certainly for Iran, where they had bodies stacked like cord wood, so I'm not buying Iran's data either.

icecoast1 · Mar 26, 2020

JimG. said:
And I agree here too and it goes back to the selfishness out there. In an authoritarian regime like communist China if you don't follow directives you disappear. Hence they could crack down and contain the virus.

That won't happen here in America where most people just do what they want regardless.

Our smart phones are already being tracked anyway without us knowing it, might as well openly admit it and use it and other minor intrusion measures to allow us to return to a functioning society

BenedictGomez · Mar 26, 2020

icecoast1 said:
Our smart phones are already being tracked anyway without us knowing it, might as well openly admit it and use it and other minor intrusion measures to allow us to return to a functioning society

Achoo...

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

to calculate the actual underlying social indexing score we combine tens of millions of anonymous mobile phones and their interactions with each other each day

p_levert · Mar 26, 2020

JimG. said:
+1

The hype has to stop. The media is sadly the LAST place anyone should look for reliable info.

Jeez, why would you say that? You need to get your information somewhere. CNN is better than talking to the cashier at the grocery store. And there's, obviously, a huge variety of outlets out there (BTW, CNN is not my favorite). The important thing is think critically about the info provided and use multiple sources.

BenedictGomez · Mar 26, 2020

From watching CNN, I'm pretty sure everyone in America is going to die soon.

Twice.

icecoast1 · Mar 26, 2020

BenedictGomez said:
From watching CNN, I'm pretty sure everyone in America is going to die soon.

Twice.

That's the same story most of the MSM is telling people these days. No wonder the country went off the cliff

Edd · Mar 26, 2020

p_levert said:
Jeez, why would you say that?

Speaking generally, (not about Jim specifically) I figure this can serve as a way for people to make themselves feel better. Tell themselves “It’s not that bad”.

I’m thinking the infection rates predicted are plausible, and hot spots will exceed their resources.

What I’m doubtful about is the will of this country to shut down for 3 actual months, which I keep hearing about. 6 weeks? OK. But twice that is more than I think we can accept.

Bumpsis · Mar 26, 2020

icecoast1 said:
It has to stop but it wont. And sadly with everyone stuck at home with little to do and 24 hour access to news, it's only making the situation worse

Interesting and sobering read - one person's telling about taking care COVID-19 afflicted loved one. Granted, one person's experience but no hype. This is serious. Ask yourself, do you really want to go through this?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/magazine/coronavirus-family.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

icecoast1 · Mar 26, 2020

Bumpsis said:
Interesting and sobering read - one person's telling about taking care COVID-19 afflicted loved one. Granted, one person's experience but no hype. This is serious. Ask yourself, do you really want to go through this?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/24/magazine/coronavirus-family.html?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Who in their right mind would want to go through anything like that? But that doesnt mean we can't find a way to start to slowly go back to normal as a society. If we all sit inside and hide for months til a vaccine is developed, the damage will be far worse

p_levert · Mar 26, 2020

icecoast1 said:
Who in their right mind would want to go through anything like that? But that doesnt mean we can't find a way to start to slowly go back to normal as a society. If we all sit inside and hide for months til a vaccine is developed, the damage will be far worse

Mostly agree, but it will be hard to go back to work until we get the ability to test large chunks of the population (maybe in 6 weeks) and get the hospital issues straightened out, meaning enough masks, gowns, ventilators (so maybe 2 months from now). Of course we're behind in these endeavors because of the response from the guy in the white house.

jimk · Mar 26, 2020

This is a mental game on my part, just the product of five minutes of googling and some shaky associations by me.

If Italy has a total pop of 60 million and current corona deaths are ~7500, and they are approaching a point where deaths will lessen each day, and projected 2020 Italy corona deaths are 30,000 (wild guess), that equals 0.05% of the population.

If US has a total pop of 330 million and we have as bad a time as Italy and 0.05% percent of our population dies of corona in 2020, that would equal 150,000 dead people.

Compare the 150,000 figure to leading causes of death in USA in 2017:
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
Roadway deaths: 40,231

Draw your own conclusions about the economic damage from panic and over-reaction vs. the actual health damage of this crisis. I know this is way over simplified. Shoot me down if you care to.

Edd · Mar 26, 2020

Rumor I’ve heard is NH on lockdown tomorrow. Press release forthcoming.

Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone

icecoast1 · Mar 26, 2020

Anybody within close proximity to NYC should be stopping anybody from the city from coming into their states if they are serious about slowing the spread. Florida is starting to crack down on people flying in but drivers should be checked as well

Edd · Mar 26, 2020

icecoast1 said:
Anybody within close proximity to NYC should be stopping anybody from the city from coming into their states if they are serious about slowing the spread. Florida is starting to crack down on people flying in but drivers should be checked as well

How do you mean? Verbal persuasion, right?

Newpylong · Mar 26, 2020

Edd said:
Rumor I’ve heard is NH on lockdown tomorrow. Press release forthcoming.

Sent from my iPad using AlpineZone

Not lockdown ie shelter in place, no state has issued a lockdown order.

Stay at home order effective tomorrow midnight mirroring MA and VT.

icecoast1 · Mar 26, 2020

Edd said:
How do you mean? Verbal persuasion, right?

Not sure how Florida is going about actually enforcing it. Probably a little more difficult with air travel

gladerider · Mar 26, 2020

i'd be shocked if any hills open up in May

BenedictGomez · Mar 26, 2020

icecoast1 said:
Anybody within close proximity to NYC should be stopping anybody from the city from coming into their states if they are serious about slowing the spread. Florida is starting to crack down on people flying in but drivers should be checked as well

The fleeing of COVID19+ people from NYC is a serious problem; Dr. Birx said so in the White House press conference yesterday.

Former Sunday Rivah Rat · Mar 26, 2020

I found a lot of comfort by looking at the link below. Particularly the fact that the death rate for those with no pre-existing conditions is only 0.9.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

The economic impact is going to kill WAY MORE folks.

Quote from the movie The Big Short. Brad Pitt played
Ben Rickert:
"If we're right, people lose homes. People lose jobs. People lose retirement savings, people lose pensions. You know what I hate about f***ing banking? It reduces people to numbers. Here's a number - every 1% unemployment goes up, 40,000 people die, did you know that?"

Some basic calculations of an increased death rate from this recession to come IN THE US ONLY:
So if we expect an average of a 5% increase in Unemployment over the next 5 years that means 40,000 people times 25 = 1,000,000 people will die from the recession to follow in the US alone.

The cure is definitely going to kill more than COVID-19, no question.

So far 23,595 people have died worldwide this virus, most with pre existing conditions.....

Globally, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the flu kills 290,000 to 650,000 people per year.

WTF?????

urungus · Mar 26, 2020

jimk said:
This is a mental game on my part, just the product of five minutes of googling and some shaky associations by me.

If Italy has a total pop of 60 million and current corona deaths are ~7500, and they are approaching a point where deaths will lessen each day, and projected 2020 Italy corona deaths are 30,000 (wild guess), that equals 0.05% of the population.

If US has a total pop of 330 million and we have as bad a time as Italy and 0.05% percent of our population dies of corona in 2020, that would equal 150,000 dead people.

Compare the 150,000 figure to leading causes of death in USA in 2017:
Heart disease: 647,457
Cancer: 599,108
Accidents (unintentional injuries): 169,936
Chronic lower respiratory diseases: 160,201
Stroke (cerebrovascular diseases): 146,383
Alzheimer’s disease: 121,404
Diabetes: 83,564
Influenza and pneumonia: 55,672
Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome, and nephrosis: 50,633
Intentional self-harm (suicide): 47,173
Roadway deaths: 40,231

Draw your own conclusions about the economic damage from panic and over-reaction vs. the actual health damage of this crisis. I know this is way over simplified. Shoot me down if you care to.

You are calculating 150,000 dead Americans assuming we lock down society and the economy, as Italy has (belatedly) done. But it would presumably be much more than that if we decided the economy is more important than Grandma. Also I fear that your projection of 30,000 fatalities in Italy will be on the low side, they have already surpassed 8,000 and have been averaging about 700 per day for the last few days. At that rate they will have surpassed 30,000 in about a month. This article has a sobering graph of how the number of cases is the US is accelerating faster than in Italy: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020/3/20/21179040/coronavirus-us-italy-not-overreacting

When skiing returns

Well-known member

Active member

Well-known member

Active member

Well-known member

Active member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Active member

Active member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Active member

Well-known member

Well-known member

Active member

Active member

Well-known member

Active member

Well-known member

Similar threads