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  1. #91
    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    YES!

    Let's do the math, and intentionally make it unrealistically bad. You approximated pop. @ 600k, let's go higher with the real pop. of 623k.

    NYC pop. is exactly 8M more at 8,623,000. As of today, they have 21,393 cases, or 1 in 403 people.

    It we extract that 1 in 403 people to Vermont, which is RIDICULOUS because people in VT dont all live on top of one another a few miles apart like in NYC, but whatever, I'm doing this to show the silliness of the math.

    You get 623,000 / 403 = 1,553 COVID19+ Vermonters.

    They say just slightly less than 5% will need ICU (we'll go with 5%), and that's 5% of 1,553 = 78 ICU patients

    As of today there are 158 COVID+ Vermonters, so we can assume something like maybe 8 or 10 need ICU rooms.
    I'm tired, so if I'm not following your math correctly, apologies. But I said VT has a capacity of about 50 ICU patients. You just said they could reach 78. That's a problem that will result in rationed care, which was the point I was making. The caregivers in VT are concerned with limited capacity.

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  2. #92
    Also, one thing I want to clarify here BG is I hope you are using the term ICU loosely when calculating a medical facilitily's need for Vents. Vents are used all over a hospital, not just in the ICU.

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  3. #93
    Vermont’s latest modeling shows just barely enough hospital beds and not quite enough ventilators. (Don’t ask me how I know.)

    With a forecasted peak at the end of April, there is time to get the ventilators.

    Overall, Vermont is in pretty good shape.

  4. #94
    Quote Originally Posted by deadheadskier View Post
    I'm tired, so if I'm not following your math correctly, apologies. But I said VT has a capacity of about 50 ICU patients. You just said they could reach 78. That's a problem that will result in rationed care, which was the point I was making. The caregivers in VT are concerned with limited capacity.
    No, I used outrageously silly numbers as if all 600k+ Vermonters lived right on top of one another like they're in one big city, and even then I could only get to 78. I guess I should have explained that better.

    Point is, a logger in the northeast kingdom or a farmer in Chester does not have the same likelihood of getting COVID19 as the convenience store work next to the Essex train stop from NYC (which should be shut down) or the 13 college kids in a Burlington apartment building sharing the same common entry door handle.

    And remember, this is all with the current NYC infection rate of 1:403 (as of today), which VT will never hit.

    Even if the math gets way worse (and it may), I cant imagine VT being in bad shape.
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



  5. #95
    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    Point is, a logger in the northeast kingdom or a farmer in Chester does not have the same likelihood of getting COVID19 as the convenience store work next to the Essex train stop from NYC (which should be shut down).
    The Amtrak Vermonter has been shut down.

    https://www.mynbc5.com/article/vermo...d-19/31935541#

  6. #96
    JimG.'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cdskier View Post
    Fully agree with your comments here. Would be nice if the media would stick with reporting simply facts. But I guess that doesn't sell enough ads...
    Heh...the days of Walter Cronkite and Harry Reasoner are long gone.

    Journalism today is as yellow as piss.

  7. #97
    Quote Originally Posted by nhskier1969 View Post
    I know its all doom and gloom out there, been following the stats for the coronavirus(I use to do this storm tracking in the winter). Anyway if you look at china, the outbreak started December 31st. by the middle of February companies we starting to open and most went back to work . That runs about 45 days. And today they just announced that Itlay's new cases have been slowing down for couple days. Again there's ran about 45 days. If you look at the United States the first case in Washington was the sometime around the first week of February. If it runs it course like the other countries, it would reach its peak in around the first week of April. Italy death rate was much higher because 3 generation of families normally live in the same complex. Majority of the deaths in Italy are people over the age of 70. The death rate in the united state currently is running 1.3% of known cases. Doctors have even come out saying they believe the infection rate is 20 to 30 times more than being reported. This thing will never go away. Very similar to malaria. There are always going to be outbreaks of this disease but the cases will be smaller and smaller.
    Also I think the media way overhyped this thing. Yes the death rate will be higher than the flu but we haven't built up an emmune system yet. I do think its a bad situation but not as much as the media are over hyping it.
    The only thing I will disagree with is the rest of the world knows how to lock down. Had we taken it seriously and sheltered in place for 2-3 weeks like China and Italy (without needing to be arrested) I would say we would have likely been spared the worst of it. Problem is while some took the warnings seriously many did not and still are not. Maybe what was done is enough but I'm not sure. I hope im very wrong, time will tell.

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  8. #98
    Just to show some of the over hyping, I have found this quote:

    Nine days ago, Imperial College London claimed that the US would lose up to 2 million Americans. Their new numbers? Just 84,000, again with two-thirds predicted to die within the next six months without Coronavirus (Ricochet). From White House coronavirus task force member Deborah Birx: “If you remember, that was the report that said there would be 500,000 deaths in the U.K. and 2.2 million deaths in the United States. They’ve adjusted that number in the U.K. to 20,000. So, half a million to 20,000.
    lovin life,

    Bob

  9. #99
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    Really wished they would have closed nyc down and made it like in escape from New York. No way in, no way out. Where is Snake Plimpkon?




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  10. #100
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    Quote Originally Posted by Smellytele View Post
    Really wished they would have closed nyc down and made it like in escape from New York. No way in, no way out. Where is Snake Plimpkon?


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    Um, that’s Plissken, and he wants to meet The Duke.


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