When skiing returns - Page 9

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  1. #81
    of course when a few thousand from points south flee to the perceived safety and tranquility of points north, that will add to the burden. Capacity that was not necessarily planned for. Vermont may be able to handle some of this but the Adirondacks are a different story. Lots of people flocking up there, buying out the food supply and hunkering down in their 2nd homes. All fine until they need legit medical care, then the shit really hits the fan. Beautiful country but remote in every sense of the word.

  2. #82
    Quote Originally Posted by deadheadskier View Post
    I started my day with a very sobering conversation with the Director of Nursing of a hospital in VT. If the rate of infection in NYC hits VT, within 3 weeks the hospital will have to switch to a policy of no ventilators for patients over age 60. These heroes are very well used to DNR situations and see sad endings of life every day, but it's pretty much unprecedented they have to make the DNR choice for their patients and loved ones because they lack the resources to treat.

    That's not media fear mongering. It's legitimate fear of the providers on the front lines. Let's hope it doesn't get that bad.
    If. And it wont.

    Vermont has a strong natural defense against massive, large scale numerical, communicable pandemic disease; it's called geography.
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



  3. #83
    Quote Originally Posted by Siliconebobsquarepants View Post
    With elective surgeries on hold will this make a viable dent in the deficit?

    https://poststar.com/news/local/loca...8e9bb4b33.html
    It will help some for sure. A lot of my week has actually been reaching out to Anasthasia docs to let them know that the FDA has an emergency order in place that allows for the use of Anesthesia machines for off label use as ICU ventilators.

    It's not ideal. Anesthesia machines are far more advanced to run than an ICU ventilator. The skill requirement to run a ventilator is a 2 year associate degreed Respiratory Therapist making $40-65k a year. Anesthesia machines require at least a CRNA making $120k+ if not a true Anesthesiologist in the $400k range.

    The additional capacity is pretty minimal though. Annual sales in the US market for Anesthesia machines is roughly 6k units. Average lifespan of that equipment is about 12 years. Some hospitals and surgery centers push that limit out. So call it 100k certified Anesthesia machines in the country would be my guess. So when you see one state such as NY begging for 30k ventilators, you can see that pushing a portion of the 100k Anesthesia machines in the US in place as an ICU vent substitute is somewhat of a drop in the bucket.

    Hospitals are for sure actively converting ORs to ICU isolation beds with Anesthesia machines as vents to increase critical care capacity.

    Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app

  4. #84
    Quote Originally Posted by Sunday Rivah Rat View Post
    congrats cdskier for finding the 1 article that contradicts numerous studies showing higher unemployment causing an increased death rate :

    https://news.yale.edu/2002/05/23/ris...searcher-shows

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1448606/

    https://www.genre.com/knowledge/blog...y-rate-en.html

    https://www.livescience.com/13578-un...mortality.html
    I guess you didn't actually read the details of the research I posted. If you did, you'd see that while yes, unemployment itself causes an increase in the mortality rate among the unemployed, it is also offset by a benefit to ALL groups of reduced risk factors during a slower economy.

    Also, here's a second article since you seem to think there's only 1:
    https://www.pnas.org/content/106/41/17290

    I'm not saying I'm advocating a recession. I'm just saying it isn't necessarily anywhere near as bad as some of you want us to believe it would be. With COVID-19 we have actual REAL deaths occurring TODAY. With a recession we "may" have deaths based on some hypothetical scenarios. We can't just "open things up" because we're worried about the economic impact. And I'd love to hear some real solutions on how we would logistically implement a "isolate only high risk factor people" scenario. It really isn't anywhere near as simple as people pretend it is. There's far too much integration and potential "touch points" between different risk factor groups at least in major metro areas. More isolated rural areas could potentially find it easier to have more flexibility (assuming you can keep the higher-risk metro area people away somehow).

    Maybe when you lose someone close to you from this you'll understand (especially when they are young and had a family). I take little comfort in statistics right now. Yes, emotion is playing a role in my responses here. Don't care... My view is largely unchanged from what it was previously. The only difference is I'm being more vocal about it now.

    Someone else commented earlier (either in this thread or another one today) something along the lines of "you can think the media is over-hyping things and also think this needs to be taken seriously". I agree with that statement and line of thinking. I still think there are many people that don't take this seriously enough. I also think the media is nuts. The two are not mutually exclusive.

  5. #85
    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    If. And it wont.

    Vermont has a strong natural defense against massive, large scale numerical, communicable pandemic disease; it's called geography.
    Likely so, but are you so confident to claim my suggested state capacity of about 50 serious Covid-19 patient rooms can't become overwhelmed by this?

    I don't know that answer myself. I can only report that the people I talk with are scared shitless and scrambling for every bit of equipment that they can get their hands on.

    This very hospital I was referring to I helped setup a temporary 8 bed ICU unit last week. I'm doing another one in NH tomorrow. I've got a couple hospitals in Maine looking to do the same next week.

    We are the number three player in the business and are getting calls left and right for product from hospitals who traditionalky use the two top players because those companies have no equipment left in inventory to sell.

    It will be months before the manufacturing capacity of the big players in the industry can catch up.

    Sent from my XT1635-01 using AlpineZone mobile app

  6. #86
    Quote Originally Posted by cdskier View Post
    Someone else commented earlier (either in this thread or another one today) something along the lines of "you can think the media is over-hyping things and also think this needs to be taken seriously". I agree with that statement and line of thinking. I still think there are many people that don't take this seriously enough. I also think the media is nuts. The two are not mutually exclusive.
    That was me. It's still my belief.

    It's rare I see something in the media not bases on worst-case scenarios or unrealistic worst-case modeling which we already know is not going to be correct. I'm still seeing media peeps speculating over 1 Million to 2 Millions US deaths, which is beyond absurd.



    They're stirring fear & panic irresponsibly, which doesnt help because it's probably part of why infected people from NYC are fleeing to uninfected areas. Cuomo's not helping either, he's very dramatic & saying terrifying things like thousands of New Yorkers are going to die because he needs 30,000 ventilators. The thing is, nobody ever flipping asks him how he arrives at that math, as in another post here I noted how I have no clue how he gets there.
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



  7. #87
    Quote Originally Posted by BenedictGomez View Post
    That was me. It's still my belief.

    It's rare I see something in the media not bases on worst-case scenarios or unrealistic worst-case modeling which we already know is not going to be correct. I'm still seeing media peeps speculating over 1 Million to 2 Millions US deaths, which is beyond absurd.

    They're stirring fear & panic irresponsibly, which doesnt help because it's probably part of why infected people from NYC are fleeing to uninfected areas. Cuomo's not helping either, he's very dramatic & saying terrifying things like thousands of New Yorkers are going to die because he needs 30,000 ventilators. The thing is, nobody ever flipping asks him how he arrives at that math, as in another post here I noted how I have no clue how he gets there.
    Fully agree with your comments here. Would be nice if the media would stick with reporting simply facts. But I guess that doesn't sell enough ads...

  8. #88
    Quote Originally Posted by deadheadskier View Post
    Likely so, but are you so confident to claim my suggested state capacity of about 50 serious Covid-19 patient rooms can't become overwhelmed by this?
    YES!

    Let's do the math, and intentionally make it unrealistically bad. You approximated pop. @ 600k, let's go higher with the real pop. of 623k.

    NYC pop. is exactly 8M more at 8,623,000. As of today, they have 21,393 cases, or 1 in 403 people.

    It we extract that 1 in 403 people to Vermont, which is RIDICULOUS because people in VT dont all live on top of one another a few miles apart like in NYC, but whatever, I'm doing this to show the silliness of the math.

    You get 623,000 / 403 = 1,553 COVID19+ Vermonters.

    They say just slightly less than 5% will need ICU (we'll go with 5%), and that's 5% of 1,553 = 78 ICU patients
    Last edited by BenedictGomez; Mar 26, 2020 at 8:11 PM.
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



  9. #89
    This virus isnt going anywhere until an effective vaccine is developed. Best case scenario for that is the end of this year. We supposed to just hide in our homes until then, or maybe longer?

  10. #90
    Quote Originally Posted by cdskier View Post
    Fully agree with your comments here. Would be nice if the media would stick with reporting simply facts. But I guess that doesn't sell enough ads...
    Would be nice if someone in the media has the balls to raise their hand and say, "Governor Cuomo, for a week now you've been saying NYC will very soon need 30,000 ventilators, or thousands of New Yorkers will soon die. What basis or who's model are you using for that math?"

    FYI, for 30,000 vents you need 7% of NYC's 8.63M population to have COVID19, which is 600,000, or about 580,000 more NYC residents than have coronavirus today. And technically, you need quite a bit MORE than that figure because not all 30,000 will simultaneously be in use, as once someone comes off vent (or dies) the machine can be reused.
    President - Bicknell's Thrush Extermination Solutions (BTES), LLC



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