The Official 3/16 - 3/17 Storm Discussion Thread

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR ALL OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...IS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY THE TIME THE SNOW TAPERS OFF ON SATURDAY...9 INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT AND THE NORTHERN BERKSHIRES. THE SNOW MAY MIX WITH SLEET FOR A TIME FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY... LITCHFIELD HILLS AND SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES WHICH MAY CUT DOWN ON THE ACCUMULATIONS IN THOSE AREAS. THE SNOW WILL RESULT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DELMARVA PENINSULA FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST TO JUST EAST OF LONG ISLAND SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE GULF OF MAINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW... SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

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SKIQUATTRO said:

no go for me...sister in law is having a baby Saturday...St Paddys Parade and we're hosting my wife mom's bday dinner for 20 Sunday night.....let the Guiness flow!!!!!

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ALLSKIING said:

I have been up at K since Sunday and not leaving until friday....Looks like I am dropping off the family on Friday at home and heading back up Sat night.

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powderfreak said:

Flight gets into Albany at 1045pm tomorrow night so an update will be late...at least midnight and I think we could see some changes tomorrow in the models. I've tried to account for those but this forecast could get outdated quickly. Sorry for the length.
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Track: A low pressure system will develop in northern Georgia on Friday morning and track up the coast throughout the day and on Friday night before reaching Cape Cod during the early morning hours on Saturday. The exact track (right now 50 miles either side of Cape Cod) will decide final snowfall amounts (how far inland the juice ends up).

Precipitation Type: All snow in far NW MA, NY State from Poughkeepsie northward, all of NH except coastal sections, all of Vermont, all of ME away from the coastal areas. I-95 region will start as mainly snow but will change to sleet and rain between BOS, PVD, and NYC. The amount of rain will depend on the final track of the surface low. Some significant sleet on top of the snow could occur in the far southern Hudson River Valley, NYC, western L.I., all of CT, and a good chunk of interior MA.

Initial Snowfall Forecast from noon Friday to 4pm Saturday: This is preliminary and an update will not come till late tomorrow night (flight gets into Albany at 10:45pm). I'll do this by general regions where I expect snowfall to exceed 6”...due to time, if your area is not on here I’m not expecting 6” or more. This forecast is listed for points SW (starting with Catskills) to NE (Maine) of the interior.

Catskills: 6-12” with all snow. Some spots may exceed 12” especially along the eastern slopes where orographic enhancement from easterly winds will occur.

Hudson River Valley including Poughkeepsie and Albany: 6-12” with POU seeing the best chance at 12”. My fear here is that easterly winds cause some downsloping off the Berkshires and could reduce snowfall amounts up towards Albany. I am leaning towards 6-9” for the immediate Albany area.

Berkshires: Heavy snowfall here with 10-15”.

Interior MA, NW of I-90/I-495 especially the RT 2 corridor: 5-9” with some accumulation of sleet on top.

Southern VT (South of Killington): Heavy snowfall with 10-15” of accumulation.

Central and Northern VT (Killington and points north): Significant snow with 7-15”. I’m leaving a larger range here due to less confidence in the NW extent of very heavy snowfall but feel, at the worst, this area is still looking at 7-9”.

White Mountains: Heavy snowfall with 10-15”

Sunday River and Sugarloaf in Maine: Heavy snow, 10-15” of snowfall.

DISCUSSION: The latest guidance still shows some minor but large differences for those along the western edge, particularly for an area including Binghamton, Albany, Glens Falls, Rutland, and Burlington. The 00z NAM has below a half inch of liquid in the Albany-Burlington corridor (more like .3") while the GFS has more than twice that at .75" or greater in that area. Bullseye looks to be in the Berkshires, southern VT, interior MA (say NW of an I-90/I-495 zone), most of NH, and ME. Killington northward is a little up in the air but I'm confident these areas are looking at a solid 6"+ along the Green Mtn spine and eastward. I'm not forecasting this but for those who like to dream, I saw the NWS AWIPS snowfall graphic from the 0z GFS and its got a 15"+ zone running from the Berkshires northward up the Green Mtn Spine then northwest across the northern half of NH and into ME including Sunday River and Sugarloaf. Remember, the NAM is about half that.

This storm will be fueled by strong warm air advection and will have a decent surge of Gulf and Atlantic moisture to work with. One interesting aspect is the lack of a strong westward pitch of moisture back into central NY like one would expect with this sort of track. The dynamics with this are not overly impressive (one cause for concern) in their set-up especially at 250mb and at 500mb I'd like to see a cut-off low for a widespread chance at 12" or greater. Also, the two pieces of energy that will form this storm are making me nervous in that this is not a slam dunk by any means. One jet streak will round the base of the trough and start to come up the coast before its hit from behind with more energy dropping out of Manitoba. This second infusion of energy is going to trigger the cyclogensis along the eastern seaboard. Knowing that the second hit of E (energy) is still in a data sparse region of northern Canada, there could be some big surprises during the day tomorrow.

The positives include favorable dendrite snow growth and higher than 10:1 ratios in an area bounded by Albany, Burlington, Rangley (ME), back to Lebanon (NH). This area will be well inside the cold sector and will not see the warming aloft that areas further SE will…all WAA events this winter have produced sleet and mixed precip farther north than progged so I’m going to give myself a buffer zone northwest of the current progs. As I've been writing this, more data has come in and the global models support the GFS, so will lean towards that for now though I hate discounting the NAM.

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Greg said:

I moved this in here.

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thetrailboss said:

Looking like we may get 6-12 here in VT. Not bad.

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