Late October Snowmaking?

bobbutts · Oct 23, 2007

snowman said:
That forecast is looking really good. I can see them starting by Nov 1 for sure with that one. Anyone who goes out blowing snow on night one of cold temps is a fool though. If they start on Monday, they'll lose half of what they blow that night to ground melt. I could see the River open with one trail by Sunday the 4th with that forecast

hah.. I hope it works out, but you are going to be very disappointed all winter long if you trust the long range GFS forecast.

Greg · Oct 23, 2007

snowman said:
That forecast is looking really good. I can see them starting by Nov 1 for sure with that one. Anyone who goes out blowing snow on night one of cold temps is a fool though. If they start on Monday, they'll lose half of what they blow that night to ground melt. I could see the River open with one trail by Sunday the 4th with that forecast

You're dreaming I'm afraid.

GrilledSteezeSandwich · Oct 23, 2007

snowman said:
Well, the half that's left ends up getting mixed with the mud that you create. It's just a dumb idea unless you really, really have to (as in it's Dec 15 and you still have a $hit forecast). With the extended forecast rolling out with progressively colder temps, any smart mountain ops team is going to wait for the ground to freeze a little and then roll with the lower temps. Anything 20 and up for a nightly LOW is worthless. Humidity typically runs in the 90+ at night range this time of year (70 at best on a good night) meaning you can barely make any snow at 20. Couple that with the fact you're talking about a LOW, and it only gives you a 2-4 hour operating window. Warm ground, and a warm daytime temp with a bit of wind WILL take ALL of that away the next day. Those days with lows in the 16's should give you a 8-12 hour operating window with 4-6 hours of temps where you can make some decent amounts of snow. If you can't put people on the mountain for a real shift, and you stand the chance of losing most of what you do make, you're not going to do it, unless you're insane.

According to the wet bulb chart..they can blow snow with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s and high humidity...I see i all the time at Blue mountain. 20 degrees for a night-time low is excellent...you really don't know what you're talking about...

ski_resort_observer · Oct 23, 2007

GrilledSteezeSandwich said:
According to the wet bulb chart..they can blow snow with temperatures in the mid to upper 20s and high humidity...I see i all the time at Blue mountain. 20 degrees for a night-time low is excellent...you really don't know what you're talking about...

According to the wet noodle chart if you want to open early you gotta blow, baby blow. Waiting for the ground to freeze is a luxury that just doesn't exist anymore. If you do get a real honest to goodness cold snap before you blow, it a bonus, for sure. No resort wants to be rated high on the wet noodle chart. :lol:

kingslug · Oct 23, 2007

Angus said:
flew over the CO rockies this AM - the rockies are covered in snow! It was strange to look down on Denver and see everything south of town covered in snow. got me imagining about skiing in earnest! closest winter weather I've seen in the east this fall was the 3rd week of August during our NH vacation - sleet on top of Mt. Washington and cold nights that required a fire at the cottage!

Now yer talkin.

Vortex · Oct 23, 2007

Greg said:
You're dreaming I'm afraid.

There is enough time to open I think if the temps actually come true. All that being considered You will see a before Nov 9th opening, but not that weekend of the 4th.. Probably the 2pm opening a few days early. I'll be there one day opening weekend. Have to work around footballl till the weekend of the 17th. The Sr regulars have all see it, 36 hours of good weather and you could see something off Locke. Then they will let it set at least one day probably two.

Boyne has alot it wants to show. It has won the publicity battle. Doing this would go a long way to back up what most everyone belives will be a great ownership group..

Greg · Oct 23, 2007

Bob R said:
There is enough time to open I think if the temps actually come true. All that being considered You will see a before Nov 9th opening, but not that weekend of the 4th.. Probably the 2pm opening a few days early. I'll be there one day opening weekend. Have to work around footballl till the weekend of the 17th. The Sr regulars have all see it, 36 hours of good weather and you could see something off Locke. Then they will let it set at least one day probably two.

Boyne has alot it wants to show. It has won the publicity battle. Doing this would go a long way to back up what most everyone belives will be a great ownership group..

I'm with ya, Bob. I just like to point out snowman's backpedaling. :spin:

I have reason to believe we should be keeping a very close eye on Attitash as well.

Vortex · Oct 23, 2007

Like wise, two of the new groups appear out to prove something.

snowman · Oct 23, 2007

Bob R said:
There is enough time to open I think if the temps actually come true. All that being considered You will see a before Nov 9th opening, but not that weekend of the 4th.. Probably the 2pm opening a few days early. I'll be there one day opening weekend. Have to work around footballl till the weekend of the 17th. The Sr regulars have all see it, 36 hours of good weather and you could see something off Locke. Then they will let it set at least one day probably two.

Boyne has alot it wants to show. It has won the publicity battle. Doing this would go a long way to back up what most everyone belives will be a great ownership group..

The pesimist is actually going to argue against you on this one. That forecast you posted today rocks. There should be a bit of frost in the ground by witching night with that one and I can see them firing up then or the next night at the latest? I'm thinking 3 x 12 hour nights of snowmaking should be more than enough to get something off locke or Barker open with their fire power?

snowman · Oct 23, 2007

Greg said:
I'm with ya, Bob. I just like to point out snowman's backpedaling.

I have reason to believe we should be keeping a very close eye on Attitash as well.

Back peddling? The long term forecast was total crap a week ago with not even a freezing temp thru the end of the month. Now there's 4 or 5 coooold days before the end of the month and Decent night time snow making temps from the crack of midnight on Nov 1. I don't control the forecast. I said you need about a week of cold temps to freeze up your ground properly and sub 20's to blow decent snow. The forecast changed and provided exactly that, therefore, I am changing my snowmaking forecast. I will also point out I said there wasn't a chance in hell of skiing before the end of the month and I'm pretty darn sure I was correct on that.

snowman · Oct 23, 2007

The SR forecast also seems to kick the loaf's foecast too for some reason? The loaf is what we were originally looking at..

Greg · Oct 23, 2007

snowman said:
Back peddling?

Yes.

Yesterday:

snowman said:
You're dreaming I'm afraid. The first time the loaf is going to even remotely be able to make snow is Nov 4th, and even then it's going to be tough with all the moisture in the air and ground from the forecasted precipitation leading up to that date. If the forecat keeps having those 19's in it from the 4th on out, they should be good to go after a day or 2 after that coupled with the colder temps leading up to the 19's. If they can get to blowing decent snow on frozen ground by the 6th they should be able to hit the opening date of the 17th with 1 trail or maybe a trail and a half

Today:

snowman said:
That forecast is looking really good. I can see them starting by Nov 1 for sure with that one. Anyone who goes out blowing snow on night one of cold temps is a fool though. If they start on Monday, they'll lose half of what they blow that night to ground melt. I could see the River open with one trail by Sunday the 4th with that forecast

Just sayin'...

GrilledSteezeSandwich · Oct 23, 2007

I love it when Snowman get's owned....frosty really knows a ton about snowmaking....ahahahahahahahah

Vortex · Oct 23, 2007

Russ (SR board) who has a history of weather forecasting at the River is saying don't get to excited yet. He has been saying around turkey day all fall. I have hope still.

ALLSKIING · Oct 23, 2007

Bob R said:
Russ (SR board) who has a history of weather forecasting at the River is saying don't get to excited yet. He has been saying around turkey day all fall. I have hope still.

Sounds like your ready to put that new condo to good use other then hiking.

Zand · Oct 23, 2007

The 1st 2 weeks of November are definitely looking colder than normal. Should see highs in the mid 40s and lows in the mid 20s in southern VT as early as Halloween and probably even colder than that in Maine. With that, the places with courage and killer snowmaking should at least get a run or two for Veterans Day.

Still can't believe how warm this October has been. ORH recorded a CDD today... absolutely unheard of this time of the season... they're usually rare enough in September. Current temp here is 68 at 9:30... more like July.

snowman · Oct 23, 2007

Greg said:
Yes.

Yesterday:

Today:

Just sayin'...

Check your geography Greg. I'm talking about the River now, and the Loaf before. Where the River has 3 times more firepower and 1/3 the distance to cover it's an entirely different situation for a projected opening day. I was also talking about a weather.com forecast last week and an accuweather forecast at a different place now. Weather.com is still saying there won't even be a skim of ice on a puddle at the Loaf beyond Nov 1, and absolutely no chance of snowmaking. I still say the Loaf will be lucky to have 1 trail off the superquad by Nov 17, and if Accuweather is right, the River may be able to open something as early as next weekend. We're back to media soundbite crap here. Saying I said one thing about one place, when actually I was talking about someplace completely different.

snowman · Oct 23, 2007

I was just looking at the West Dover forecast for the first time. There's no snowmaking go date in that forecast either, right thru Nov 6. I wonder how the River lucked out with the pocket of temps they seem to have forecasted for them?

ski_resort_observer · Oct 24, 2007

NOAA point forecasts at 1800ft on Mt Snow and 1647ft at SR show similar cold temps overnight in the mid 20's starting Monday night(10/5)

GrilledSteezeSandwich · Oct 24, 2007

but mid 20s overnight temps aren't cold enough for snowmaking according to Snowman..lol

Late October Snowmaking?

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