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$100 oil

Marc

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Malthus was right.
He just didn't factor in technology very well.

These guys have a pretty good system for load shifting: http://www.ice-energy.com/

On the thermodynamics issue, there are several groups working on Sterling engines, and most say that, at base, it's a materials problem that is not far from resolution.

I still say algal biodiesel is where it's at. If only someone would give me a couple mil to prove it...

Engines made of silver? What the hell good does that do us??


Wait... you mean Stirling engines... right? ;) I love being an arsehole.


Unfortunately, from what I've seen, but I'm no industry insider, there isn't enough work being done on Stirling technology. Most of the recent advances have been for using them as cryocoolers (inputing work to extract heat, rather than inputing heat to extract work). Materials science will only progress so fast, and no matter how efficient and cheaply they can be made to work and manufactured, they will always be limited by the temperature gradient they're given to work with. If it is a relatively small, constant difference, then we're talking buffers and storage, which requires a whole other field of technology to progress.

What I could see happening medium to long term is more localized eletricity production (I'm talking about township and personal property local) eliminating transfer losses using mass produced generation means and eletric transportation based on a charging and battery swapping infrastructure. Of course, if that happens it will be through vastly improved battery technology and standardization.

I'm hoping for cities, there's promise for the flexible, polymer PV panels that would cover the exterior of buildings, all becoming locally self sufficient. Only thing to do is wait and see I guess.
 

ctenidae

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The big issue with Stirling engines (arse) seeme to be materials that can handle the change in temperatures required from teh hot to cold sides without expanding or contracting too much to brreak the seal between the two sides, and yet still let the piston move. It's an interesting concept, but I'm not putting any money in it personally.

I think local generation has some legs, especially if thin film PVs get up and running. Still, PV's need some major improvements in efficiency, and most realists seem to think that's still at least 10 years away. And by "realists" I mean people who are not investing in PV's because they think it'll take that long, as opposed to people who think that PV's are the end all answer, and the breaktrhough is right around the corner.

Biggest possible, and cheapest, energy savings comes in the form of better building insulation. Huge yeilds, small costs.
 

Marc

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The big issue with Stirling engines (arse) seeme to be materials that can handle the change in temperatures required from teh hot to cold sides without expanding or contracting too much to brreak the seal between the two sides, and yet still let the piston move. It's an interesting concept, but I'm not putting any money in it personally.

I think local generation has some legs, especially if thin film PVs get up and running. Still, PV's need some major improvements in efficiency, and most realists seem to think that's still at least 10 years away. And by "realists" I mean people who are not investing in PV's because they think it'll take that long, as opposed to people who think that PV's are the end all answer, and the breaktrhough is right around the corner.

Biggest possible, and cheapest, energy savings comes in the form of better building insulation. Huge yeilds, small costs.

That is most definitely correct. Hopefully sooner rather than later extremely strong rigid materials become cheap and easy to produce and we can have vacuum insulated homes. Combined with low emissivity coatings, we could have a nearly perfectly insulated space.

As far as PV goes, I agree with those not sinking money into it right now, as they're still incredibly energy intensive to produce and costly.

Large scale and short term, and depending on the moods of the super rich and bird lovers, I think wind technology has the biggest potential for being viable. Certainly easier to solve the ills of suicidal birds than the disposal issue of nuclear waste.
 

ctenidae

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Large scale and short term, and depending on the moods of the super rich and bird lovers, I think wind technology has the biggest potential for being viable. Certainly easier to solve the ills of suicidal birds than the disposal issue of nuclear waste.

Wind has some serious issues to overcome, not least of which is availability. The wind tends to blow most int eh morning and evenings, when the load is lowest. If someone comes up with a viable way to store electricity produced at night for distribution during the day, then wind may get somewhere. As it is, it's hard to build a viable grid on a 30% availability. The only way around it now is widely dispersed wind farms, but then you run into transmission problems. Tidal generation is a much more interesting and useful idea, since the ocean currents andn tides are always moving. Of course, the sea is a harsh mistress, so there are a lot of engineering issues to be overcome. Whatever salt water won't corrode, sand will erode.

Biomass, landfill methane, and geothermal are all nice ideas, too, as is local hydrogen. Trouble is, the way the grid's set up, none of the renewable solutions can be the one big answer. We need to rebuild the grid, anyway, and it needs to be done in a flexible way that allows for teh incorporation of a variety of generation techniques.
 

deadheadskier

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The new Altima is a tank compared to the older sized cars.


While I agree with you that cars seem to be getting bigger, this above statement is false. The new Altima is actually smaller than the previous model, which I believe had been on the road since 2002.


The biggest culprit I see in enlarged vehicle is the Toyota Tacoma. I can remember the Toyota SR5? I believe it was called before the Tacoma in the mid 90's and it was a pretty compact pick up truck. The new Tacoma's are damn near as large as an F150 and the Tundras....BIG F'N RIG.
 

deadheadskier

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This Energy thing IS NOT NEW guys ! this nation has been thru this once before in the 70's and FAILED to learn from that experience .

This isn't entirely true. The energy crisis of the 70's and then again in the early 80's was to a much larger degree political posturing and market hysteria than today. Supply and Demand wasn't the issue then and it played out because in both situations (as well as in 97) oil plummeted to around $10 a barrel (2008 dollars) once people calmed down. Had Supply and Demand been the issue, this wouldn't have happened and we would've been much more serious about making the necessary investments in alternate fuels/technologies.

The nation didn't necessarily FAIL, they simply didn't really have to change and the market proved that.

The primary difference between then and now? India and China and because of them, it actually has become a Supply and Demand problem, not simply stock market hysteria / political posturing.

Unfortunately, it's human nature to an extent. People won't change until they are forced to change. The obese guy won't give up his double wopper until his doctor says, stop it now or you're going to develop diabetes and die early in life.

The energy crisis is now truly real and it's going to be painful to go through the necessary changes. I'm less concerned with how much it costs me to fill my tank to go to the mountain or the cost of fuel to heat my home, than I am with how much it's going to cost me to fill up my cart at the grocery store. Anyone can find a way to drive less and dress warmer, but we all still gotta eat and that is where the true pain is going to be felt.

Grain is the new gold. Fuel prices are making it more expensive to farm it and transport it, which is driving more and more farmers to give up. You couple that with an exploding world population and you have major problems. Seven out of the last Eight years grain production has not been sustainable for our earths population. We can all sit here and bitch on our computers about how it's getting that much more difficult to afford the drive to the mountain and heat our homes. It's quite the luxory when you consider how many people are dying because of lack of food.....and it's only going to get worse.

That is the true crisis in all of this.
 

deadheadskier

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Part of the answer, at least with private passenger vehicles, will be steep taxes on vehicles with poor fuel mileage.


One can only hope. Right now the laws are purely based upon weight, not vehicle use/function. Any Joey out there right now with a six figure plus income that can afford a Hummer or a Suburban can practically drive such a vehicle for free with a little creative accounting.
 

ski_resort_observer

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Many of the parts of this latest energy thing is not new......supply isues, productions issues(no new refineries built in the last 30 years) and our gasguzzling society but there are some new important twists to this latest energy situation..

In the last 5 years the economies of Chine and India have grown exponentially resulting in huge energy demands by these countries. One of the many reasons why I feel the price of crude will back off of $100 is that these economies while still growing, the rate of growth is starting to slow down, combined with the fact that India and China's own oil developement, especially China, is starting to come online, reducing their demand on oil from the mideast. The oil futures are showing this.
 

wa-loaf

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Heating oil over $4 a gallon now I hear in my area ... looking at electric heat now.

We're locked in at $2.59 right now. Next fall is going to suck! We're going to use our tax advance/stimulus BS check to pre-buy Oil for next winter. We're getting $1800 for the two of us and the kids and that likely won't cover the heating bills next year.
 

ctenidae

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Breaking $100 is an important psychological event. Now that it's done it, it'll be back. Within a couple of weeks, oil will probably be over $100 to stay, and by the end of the year we'll be looking back and saying "Boy, remember when oil was only $100 a barrel? Those were good times."

Sometimes it sucks being right.
 

ski_resort_observer

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Sometimes it sucks being right.

For now....:wink: If the damn dollar would only shore up maybe this week long downward trend in the price of crude will continue. If that happens oil speculators will jump off the oil train as fast as they jumped off the gold train recently where the price was $1000/oz a few weeks ago now at $865. .I still say $100 oil is possible in the near future.
 

ctenidae

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For now....:wink: If the damn dollar would only shore up maybe this week long downward trend in the price of crude will continue. If that happens oil speculators will jump off the oil train as fast as they jumped off the gold train recently where the price was $1000/oz a few weeks ago now at $865. .I still say $100 oil is possible in the near future.

I'm not so sure. I don't think the gold activity is as similar to oil activity as you may think. Different set of investors, different set of supply/demand curves, different set of geopolitical factors. Gold's trucking its way back up, too.

Abu Dabhai is sinking $1B into green energy research. Think they may know something we've refused to accept yet?
 

ski_resort_observer

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I'm not so sure. I don't think the gold activity is as similar to oil activity as you may think. Different set of investors, different set of supply/demand curves, different set of geopolitical factors. Gold's trucking its way back up, too.

Abu Dabhai is sinking $1B into green energy research. Think they may know something we've refused to accept yet?

I think the "green movement" is well underway in many aspects of our lives and in business, one positive thing from the high oil prices. As long as inflation is low I think gold will continue to drop or at least flatten out. Today Gold has dropped again to $851. 06 growth(better than expected btw) and .05 growth the last two quarters is the foundation for that. That's POSITIVE growth so in general our economy is NOT in recession IMHO. Looking at particular sectors some are definately in recession like the auto and real estate sectors.
 

ctenidae

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There's a deeper threat of inflation looming, and the Fed's cut yesterday didn't help that. According to David Hale, the Fed has admitted it's lost all control of inflation and has no way to protect the dollar, so all they're doing now is trying to maintain the stability of the financial system. That's not a comforting thought.
 

ski_resort_observer

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Personally I think the Fed has done a good job...according to the two Fed Regional Govenors I saw interviewed yesterday they didn't really want to lower the rate again but felt the .25 cut was already baked in the market so they went for the lesser of two evils. No rate cut would have helped the dollar but hurt the financial markets.

You can drive yourself crazy looking at all the ying/yang things out there. Food is getting more expensive in part cause farmers are growing as much corn as possible, in deference to other crops, to take advantage of the high prices to meet the increasing ethanol demand which in a way is a good thing regarding our foreign oil demand but it costs more to feed your family.

head_screaming.jpg
 
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I wish bank CD rates kept pace with inflation..they were 5+ percent when inflation was low and now less than 4 percent with high inflation...
 
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