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The Official 3/18 - 3/21 Storm Discussion Thread

Greg

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Winter Storm Watch for Central-Northern Vermont:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
350 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...WINTRY WEATHER HEADING FOR THE NORTH COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT...

.A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER
TODAY...AND MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND WILL BRING LIGHT MIXED WINTRY
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. WARM AIR WORKING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL RAIN FROM THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY
WEST...BUT MAY REMAIN A MIX FROM THE GREEN MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE
CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY. AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL
NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...ALL PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. MOISTURE ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

VTZ003-004-006>008-010-012-182100-
/O.NEW.KBTV.WS.A.0008.080319T0800Z-080320T2000Z/
ORLEANS-ESSEX-LAMOILLE-CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-ORANGE-WINDSOR-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWPORT...ISLAND POND...JOHNSON...
STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...MONTPELIER...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION
350 AM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BURLINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS FOR ALL OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
VERMONT...INCLUDING AREAS IN THE CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...AND THEN CHANGE TO A
MIX OF SLEET AND POSSIBLY FREEZING RAIN DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS CONCERNING
PRECIPITATION TYPE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN A MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE BASED ON THE
LATEST INFORMATION AVAILABLE.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND TO
THE MAINE COAST DURING WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE BACK
INTO CENTRAL AND EASTERN VERMONT ALLOWING THE MIXED PRECIPITATION
TO CHANGE BACK TO ALL SNOW BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY MORNING...RESULTING IN
POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW OR SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATION.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...YOUR LOCAL MEDIA...OR
GO TO WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BURLINGTON FOR FURTHER UPDATES ON THIS
WEATHER SITUATION.

$$
 

danny p

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fingers are crossed.......hearing more and more that the following weeks will be more dependable cold and favorable precip.
 

gladerider

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i am seeing conflicting forecasts for north country. NWS says rain wednesday night and accuweather says snow. i found NWS very unreliable the past couple storms. hope they are wrong this time also.
 

loafer89

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Warm air and rain will make a strong punch norward to the Canadian border. Most of New England will see rain/freezing rain for a while on wednesday.
 

loafer89

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
753 PM EDT TUE MAR 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND
INTO WEDNESDAY. A WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD A WINTRY
MIX OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...THEN MIX WITH AND
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION AND CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION BACK TO SNOW.
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ESPECIALLY OVER
THE NORTHERN GREEN MOUNTAINS...THEN HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT TUESDAY...WARM FRONTAL PRECIPITATION TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BEGINING AS A MIX OVER THE
NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND SPREADING NORTH AND EAST. COLD LOW
LEVELS TONIGHT FAVORABLE FOR SNOW/SLEET...THEN CHANGING TO
FREEZING RAIN BY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL WARM LAYER MOVES IN. ONE
THING IN OUR FAVOR AGAINST FREEZING RAIN IS LACK OF BLOCKING HIGH
TO OUR NORTH WILL ALLOW SOUTHERLY SFC WINDS OVER ENTIRE AREA. LOW
QPF (0.15-0.25) OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN
SHORTLY AFTER 12Z WED. BUFKIT LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES NEARLY
ISOTHERMAL BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TIL AROUND 12Z
TOMORROW, THEN WARM AIR COMES ON LIKE GANGBUSTERS. WILL BE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE AS WARM LAYER ALOFT MOVES IN
BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS WARM UP.
SFC HIGH HAS MOVED OFF THE
COAST...AND WITH NO BLOCKING
HI TO N WE`LL OPEN UP TO SOUTHERLY
FIOW AND
SFC COLD WILL SCOUR OUT A LITTLE EASIER.

HAVING SAID ALL THAT...THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH COLD AIR TO
WARRANT CONTINUATION OF ADVISORIES FOR SLEET/FREEZING RAIN. IN
ADDITION...CHANGED THE WINTER WEATHER WATCH IN EASTERN VERMONT TO
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 344 PM EDT TUESDAY...MAIN PORTION OF WINTER STORM WILL BE
FOCUSED ON WED/THURS. WARM AIR WILL STREAM NORTH IN CHAMPLAIN
VALLEY...WITH CHANGEOVER TO RAIN THERE EARLIEST. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY ENDS 15Z FROM WESTERN SLOPES WESTWARD INTO ADIRONDACKS
AND ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. IN EASTERN VT WHERE GREEN MOUNTAINS WILL
BLOCK WARM AIR LONGER...SOUTHEAST VT KEEPS THE ADVISORY TIL
18Z...AND NORTHEAST KINGDOM EXPIRING 21Z.

POTENTIAL FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS DURING THE DAY WEDS IN ADVANCE OF
THE SURFACE LOW. HOWEVER BY THIS TIME WE`LL BE IN THE WARMER
AIR...AND ANY ICE LOADING ACCUMULATED OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE
LESSENING. CENTER OF SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN
VT LATE TUESDAY. SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AT THIS TIME...WITH SFC LOW
FURTHER S AND WEST IN THE NAM...AND FASTER/FURTHER NORTH IN GFS.
LOW LEVEL TEMP PROFILE FROM NAM LOOKED TOO COLD GIVEN STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW...SO GENERALLY USED THE GFS DATA.

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH ANY MIXED PRECIP
CHANGING BACK OVER TO SNOW AND CONTINUING THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL NW
JET THURSDAY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE STRONG
WIND GUST POTENTIAL. HIGH RH IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL
CONTINUE SNOWFALL IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. OPTED TO TREAT
TONIGHTS AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAYS WINTER WEATHER AS TWO
SEPARATE EVENTS...SO WE WOULDN`T HAVE ADVISORIES FOR 36 HOURS WITH
A 12-18HR PERIOD IN THE MIDDLE OF WARM TEMPS. NOT FORECASTING
ADVISORY LEVEL PRECIP ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IN THE
ADIRONDACKS AND CHAMPLAIN VALLEY...BUT ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY
FOR POST FRONTAL WRAP AROUND PRECIP IN NORTHERN/NORTHEAST VERMONT.
WILL RE-EVALUATE TOMORROW AFTER TONIGHTS WEATHER WINDS DOWN.
 

Zand

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Was lightly snowing in Sturbridge about 45 minutes ago.. back here at home it hasn't started yet but I imagine it's only a matter of time. I was surprised to see it... it's 40 degrees out. Wet-bulb must be real low.
 

salsgang

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While today / tonight looks like a washout for everyone - Looks like the possibility for significant snow on the backside of this storm for the Maine Mountains. From NWS Gray:

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON SOME SPECIFICS...THE BOTTOM LINE IS
LARGELY THE SAME. THE 00Z GFS IS FASTER DEVELOPING THE LOW AND
STRONGER...WITH THE NAM IN THE MIDDLE...AND THE UKMET/GEM WEAKER.
THE 12Z EUROPEAN LENDS SUPPORT TO THE GFS. FOR NOW USE NAM/GFS
BLEND...GENERALLY EXPECTED A 975 - 980 MB LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. HOWEVER...WHEN IT COMES TO THE FORECAST...TWO THINGS
LOOK FAIRLY CERTAIN. IT WILL BE WINDY...AND THERE WILL BE UPSLOPE
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.

1) WINDS: WHILE THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW WILL DETERMINE THE
SPECIFICS...BOTH NAM/GFS SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF 40 KT WINDS AT
925 MB...WHICH LINE UP WITH SURFACE WINDS. THURSDAY NIGHT EXPECT
SOME HINT OF A NIGHTTIME INVERSION TO LIMIT WIND GUSTS A BIT
(STILL SEE GUSTS IN THE 40 MPH RANGE). EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS
ON FRIDAY. NAM BUFKIT INDICATING THESE HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO MIX
DOWN...WITH BREAKS OF SUNSHINE THE KEY TO PROVIDING THE
INSTABILITY NEEDED TO MIX THINGS DOWN. SYNOPTIC SET UP IS ONE
WHICH CAN PRODUCE GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH. STILL A WAYS OFF FOR
A WATCH...BUT IT WILL BE AN ISSUE FOR FUTURE SHIFTS. WINDS SHOULD
DROP OFF FRIDAY NIGHT RATHER QUICKLY.

2) UPSLOPE SNOW: THIS SYSTEM IS A CLASSIC SET-UP FOR SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE SNOW. 925 MB WINDS SIT AT 35 TO 45 KT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WHILE 925 MB RH IS LARGELY ABOVE 80 PERCENT. STALLED
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM CONSISTENT WILL LOCAL RESEARCH ON UPSLOPE
EVENTS. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL VARY GREATLY...WITH FAVORABLE
UPSLOPE LOCATIONS IN A NORTHWEST FLOW POSSIBLY SEEING GREATER THAN
A FOOT OF SNOW BY THE TIME THIS EVENT IS OVER..
.WHILE THE VALLEY
TOWNS MAY ONLY SEE A COUPLE INCHES. WILL CARRY WINTER STORM
WARNING INTO THURSDAY NIGHT GIVEN CONFIDENCE IN A SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE EVENT. WHILE THE TOWNS MAY DODGE THE WORST OF IT...TRAVEL
THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST.
 

loafer89

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Backside snowfall forecast:

Storm Total Snow Forecast

StormTotalSnowFcst.png


Click anywhere on the image to zoom in


WWUS41 KBTV 190751WSWBTVURGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT351 AM EDT WED MAR 19 2008...MIXED PRECIPITATION GRADUALLY CHANGING TO RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHCOUNTRY TODAY....PRECIPITATION ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A WARM FRONTACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PERIODS OFMIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH COUNTRY TODAY. AS WARMERAIR MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLYCHANGE OVER TO RAIN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. SLEET ANDPOCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK THIS MORNINGWILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING. LIKEWISE...ONGOINGSNOW IN THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY AT 3 AM WILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND THENTO RAIN BY LATE THIS MORNING. EAST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS...A COLDERAIR MASS WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE OUT. SNOW THROUGH LATE MORNINGWILL CHANGE TO SLEET AND POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN THROUGH LATETHIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN. A FEW POCKETS OF FREEZINGRAIN MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT THAT THREAT APPEARSTO BE LIMITED BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.ALTHOUGH NOT SPECIFICALLY ADDRESSED IN THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHERADVISORY AREAS...AS THE SURFACE LOW PASSES OVER CENTRAL NEWENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGEBACK OVER TO ALL SNOW...WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION EXPECTEDON THURSDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THEWEST SLOPES OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS AND ACROSS THE NORTHERNADIRONDACKS...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ISPOSSIBLE. AN ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FORTHURSDAY FOR THESE AREAS PRONE TO UPSLOPE SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHERNNEW YORK AND VERMONT.
 

loafer89

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Jay Peak looks like the place to be on friday:

FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE OROGRAPHIC SNOW POTENTIAL FOR OUR MTNS AS
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS ALONG THE ME COAST THURSDAY
AFTN. WITH H5 TROF REMAINING OVER NRN NY AT 18Z THU AND THEN
CLOSING OFF OVER CENTRAL ME BY 00Z FRI...WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN
LOW-MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW REGIME IS IMPRESSIVE. NWLY 850MB FLOW OF
45-50KTS IS PROGGED BY GFS AND THIS WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT
UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE NRN ADIRONDACKS AND ESPECIALLY THE NRN GREEN
MTNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ARE POSSIBLE...WITH NRN GREENS LIKELY SEEING 6 TO 12
INCHES OF SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY JAY PEAK
VCNTY BY NOON ON FRIDAY.
ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED TO COVER THIS
OROGRAPHIC SNOW...BUT WILL DEFER AT THIS TIME TO ALLOW MIXED
PRECIPITATION CONCERNS ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE STORM TO PASS.

THE STRONG NWLY GRADIENT FLOW WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SFC THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 EXPECTED AREAWIDE. GUSTS
TO 35 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO CUTOFF NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE SEAWAY. HAVE
INCLUDED THESE GUSTY WINDS IN CURRENT FCST.
 
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Wow it looks like Friday is going to be Epic at Sugarbush for the AZ day...As of last night there was 97 inches at the Mount Mansfield stake...and Stowe was reporting 3-5 inches new this morning..I'm sure it's changing over there now but they should get another foot on the backside..12 more days until I'm skiing Stowe..woo hoo..such deep coverage..Holla
 

ski_resort_observer

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Here at the Bush the two local forecasters are calling for 8-12" of snow from the "backside nor'easter after some mixed stuff on Wednesday. This time of year elevation can make a big diference in what type of precip we get.

Last Wednesday, for example, it was mixed at the base but on the upper mountain it was all snow. What happens in Burlington has nothing to do with what we get in the mountains.
 

Greg

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Here at the Bush the two local forecasters are calling for 8-12" of snow from the "backside nor'easter after some mixed stuff on Wednesday. This time of year elevation can make a big diference in what type of precip we get.

Last Wednesday, for example, it was mixed at the base but on the upper mountain it was all snow. What happens in Burlington has nothing to do with what we get in the mountains.

Let's hope. Let's also hope the winds don't take the upper lifts out of commission. I could be happy lapping the CR chair of Heaven's Gate on Friday. You coming out SRO?

Josh Fox seems a tad upbeat:

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/2008/03/fridays-our-best-shot-for-powder-day.html
 

JD

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Great stuff covering up the hardpack today in central VT. Fluff on top will ski very nice, even if it isn't that deep. Burke would be a good call for tomorrow I think. Bring the skins though, wind hold very possible I think.
 

riverc0il

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2" here in Ashland/Plymouth featuring all snow and no rain all day. Starting to get rather wet snow, perhaps a small change over to rain coming soon, but much much better than I had hoped for this area. Considered grabbing an earned run after work but decided two inches of wet snow was not worth the effort considering I am looking to go three days in a row this weekend.

Might have to hit Jay on Friday instead of Bush. Tough call but that map up above suggests Jay may really get nailed. We'll see how things look Thursday night as reports come in. Game on!!!!!
 
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