The "Sugarbush Thread" - Page 846

AlpineZone

Page 846 of 866 FirstFirst ... 346746796836844845846847848856 ... LastLast
Results 8,451 to 8,460 of 8655
  1. #8451
    Quote Originally Posted by HowieT2 View Post
    I get the look back but like I said, I've been monitoring the data and for months, the number of cases have been in the 20's per 100k for 7 day period. That's in the 200's per million over 7 days. how then does the algorithm get to 800+ per million active cases.
    Just a guess, but if your county for all 30 days has been less than VT's current estimate of your county's rate, then that would imply that VT's transmission rate in the model is faulty. Or another possibility is your county is talented relative to the average county at reducing transmission rates. VT is much more model based, others are more current testing based.

    Quote Originally Posted by HowieT2 View Post
    you guys dont actually believe there's going to be a vaccine distributed and administered widely enough to make any difference before next spring??? I mean, really, you are being facetious, no?
    To quote Will Rogers, all I know is what I read in the papers. Who knows what will actually happen when.

  2. #8452
    Quote Originally Posted by HowieT2 View Post
    I get the look back but like I said, I've been monitoring the data and for months, the number of cases have been in the 20's per 100k for 7 day period. That's in the 200's per million over 7 days. how then does the algorithm get to 800+ per million active cases.
    Vermont's algorithm to estimate the number of active cases is rather bizarre and definitely seems to be overestimating the number of actual cases by a decent amount. If I'm reading it correctly, they are using historical data of reported infections to basically attempt to predict how many other people they may have infected to figure out how many cases there currently should be? That's just strange...



    Also, the whole thing has very little relevance to an individual's actual risk anyway. If person A living in a red county rarely leaves their house and practices proper social distancing, that person has a "low risk". Meanwhile person B could be living in a green county and leave their house non-stop and never social distance and never wear a mask. I trust person A's risk level more than I trust person B's. Bottom line is it should be more about common sense instead of some bizarre overly conservative algorithm. If people follow social distancing rules and are minimizing their risk at home, then they should be welcomed (as long as they agree to continue to follow the guidelines).

  3. #8453
    Quote Originally Posted by mister moose View Post
    Just a guess, but if your county for all 30 days has been less than VT's current estimate of your county's rate, then that would imply that VT's transmission rate in the model is faulty. Or another possibility is your county is talented relative to the average county at reducing transmission rates. VT is much more model based, others are more current testing based.


    To quote Will Rogers, all I know is what I read in the papers. Who knows what will actually happen when.
    I don't know what papers you're reading, but there isn't anyone saying there will be a vaccine widely distributed to the population before next spring at the earliest. Even the idiot who said this was all going to go away isnt saying that.

  4. #8454
    Quote Originally Posted by HowieT2 View Post
    you guys dont actually believe there's going to be a vaccine distributed and administered widely enough to make any difference before next spring??? I mean, really, you are being facetious, no?
    Not Me, just being facetious.

  5. #8455
    Quote Originally Posted by cdskier View Post
    Vermont's algorithm to estimate the number of active cases is rather bizarre and definitely seems to be overestimating the number of actual cases by a decent amount. If I'm reading it correctly, they are using historical data of reported infections to basically attempt to predict how many other people they may have infected to figure out how many cases there currently should be? That's just strange...

    Also, the whole thing has very little relevance to an individual's actual risk anyway. If person A living in a red county rarely leaves their house and practices proper social distancing, that person has a "low risk". Meanwhile person B could be living in a green county and leave their house non-stop and never social distance and never wear a mask. I trust person A's risk level more than I trust person B's. Bottom line is it should be more about common sense instead of some bizarre overly conservative algorithm. If people follow social distancing rules and are minimizing their risk at home, then they should be welcomed (as long as they agree to continue to follow the guidelines).

    That's what I'm talking about. I get that the state wants people from areas where there is a high level of infection, to quarantine. And there are areas where that is the case. But not in NY/New England since june really.

  6. #8456
    The resorts can survive for one season at a big loss, some local businesses not so. It will take deep pockets to make it, but if this goes off the rails there will be no revenue coming in, ever try to run a business with zero cash flow! Survive so you can and fight for next year.

  7. #8457
    Quote Originally Posted by HowieT2 View Post
    I don't know what papers you're reading, but there isn't anyone saying there will be a vaccine widely distributed to the population before next spring at the earliest. Even the idiot who said this was all going to go away isnt saying that.
    I'd say different papers than you. It's been out for a while. Here's an updated article, first google hit.

    Biotech firm Moderna expects to know by November whether its coronavirus vaccine is effective at warding off the deadly disease, CEO Stephane Bancel said Thursday.

    Massachusetts-based Moderna says it has enrolled 25,296 people in the late-stage clinical trial of its COVID-19 vaccine that kicked off in July, one of three such studies currently underway in the US.

    The company will most likely have results from the trial indicating whether the shot works in November, Bancel said. He added that it’s possible but “unlikely” that the results could arrive in October, when fellow drugmaker Pfizer expects to know whether its own vaccine works.

    https://nypost.com/2020/09/17/modern...-november-ceo/

  8. #8458
    Quote Originally Posted by HowieT2 View Post
    you guys dont actually believe there's going to be a vaccine distributed and administered widely enough to make any difference before next spring??? I mean, really, you are being facetious, no?
    I agree. I see little chance of it happening for a variety of reasons.

    A) High risk and essential workers will be prioritized.
    B) Needing two doses 30 days apart is a distinct possibility (which further makes this a logistical nightmare as you just effectively doubled the number of vaccinations that need to happen AND need to carefully plan/time them)
    C) Some people (perhaps even many people) will be reluctant to get the vaccine when it first comes out
    D) Even with ramping up production before the vaccines are approved it will still take months to get the amount of vaccines produced that you truly need
    E) Combine point B with the fact that it takes another couple weeks for your body's immune response to get you to actually be immune and you now have at least a 6 week window after you even get the first dose before you're actually "safe". So even if you could somehow get the vaccine in late Q4, you still wouldn't be immune until early Q1. And there's simply no way every skier could get to the front of the line.

  9. #8459
    Quote Originally Posted by mister moose View Post
    I'd say different papers than you. It's been out for a while. Here's an updated article, first google hit.

    Biotech firm Moderna expects to know by November whether its coronavirus vaccine is effective at warding off the deadly disease, CEO Stephane Bancel said Thursday.

    Massachusetts-based Moderna says it has enrolled 25,296 people in the late-stage clinical trial of its COVID-19 vaccine that kicked off in July, one of three such studies currently underway in the US.

    The company will most likely have results from the trial indicating whether the shot works in November, Bancel said. He added that it’s possible but “unlikely” that the results could arrive in October, when fellow drugmaker Pfizer expects to know whether its own vaccine works.

    https://nypost.com/2020/09/17/modern...-november-ceo/
    All that says is that they expect to have the results of their latest clinical trials by November. It doesn't say anything about the vaccine actually being approved and available by November. There's a big difference between "ready" and "available".

  10. #8460
    But if you are in VT to ski on Saturday & Sunday and go back home, you are back in VT in 5 days. How do squeeze 14 days into 5. Or are you thinking, 1 pre 14 day quarantine sets you up for the entire season and basically never leave your house. Not thinking that is what they had in mind.

Thread Information

Users Browsing this Thread

There are currently 6 users browsing this thread. (1 members and 5 guests)

Similar Threads

  1. The "Sugarbush Thread" vs. Guess the ski area
    By Greg in forum Northeast Skiing and Snowboarding Forum
    Replies: 24
    Last Post: Aug 12, 2005, 10:14 AM

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
All times are GMT -5. The time now is 7:35 PM.