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1/28 Storm Discussion Thread

Bostonian

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As I turned on the news this morning, the weather guy from Channel 5 was predicting a potentially large storm for Wednesday the 28th. I did a little checking, and on Noaa's website they are saying 50% chance of snow. Could this be a big one? Could it be a fizzler? Let's get the speculation going!
 

mondeo

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Looking like yet another southern track. Snow-forecast is showing 7.5 at Sundown, 4 at Mount Snow, and 2 at Killington.
 

billski

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Looking like yet another southern track. Snow-forecast is showing 7.5 at Sundown, 4 at Mount Snow, and 2 at Killington.

Yeah, even Jersey is expected to get more snows than the mountains.

Regardless, I hope their wrong and that it tracks north. I can only hope. I'd like to take off late midweek for a surprise day of east coast pow....8)
 

gmcunni

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i'm keeping my eye on this one, jones'ing for a sick day to do some mid-week powder skiing, BEAST or Magic! !
 

Angus

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I'm hoping it runs further north too for the skiing but I have to admit I'm really enjoying this extended and consistent bit of winter in the metrowest area of boston/southern NE. I've skied x-c four times this past week - the conditions have been excellent and pond skating as well. it's nice.
 

Jisch

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I'll take another 4-5" down here in CT, the woods will be mint. Hopefully it will bury this breakable crust we've got now - all turns are step turns right now, not cool.

John
 

billski

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Looking good for Thursday!

Hot Damn, high probs of 4" or more, moderate probs of 8" or more in southern new england, southern VT, SoNH, White Mts and Maine. Wed night into Thursday AM NVT will have to wait...

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/winter_wx.shtml

Could be another ringer for Magic.

THURSDAY POWDER DAY!


snowfall126.jpg

:daffy::snow::daffy:

Scott says (Sunday):
I'm beginning to become confident in a snowstorm that will effect a large=

area of upstate NY, central New England, and southern New England. As fa=
r
as VT snow goes, central and southern regions are looking good right now =
for
a potentially significant snowfall. While the jury is still out, and we'=
ll
have a much better idea in a day or so.=20=20

Figured the word should get out that this week might hold more promise th=
an
current forecasts if this winter storm is indeed coming north.
 
Last edited:

billski

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wow. this is really starting to shape up nicely. The models are now seeing this move further north, and a more prolonged period in the south. and. its. all. snow:snow:

I really can't concentrate now!
 

billski

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billski

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Looking like yet another southern track. Snow-forecast is showing 7.5 at Sundown, 4 at Mount Snow, and 2 at Killington.

Well, they just changed their tune. It's tracking notheast now and pushing farther north.

At black: "Snow Potential
Much heavier accumulations with shifting storm track...5-10" for now...will likely adjust even more "

Kmart:
Much heavier accumulations with shifting storm track...4-8" for now...will likely adjust even more

Magic
5-10" for now...will likely adjust even more
 
Last edited:

Bostonian

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This is from the NOAA website's discussion section. I just plugged in my zip code:

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
SPENT MUCH OF THE TIME CONCENTRATING ON THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST.
A SHORT WAVE PERTURBATION RIPPLES EAST NORTHEAST ALONG THE MEAN FLOW
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY REGION INTO THE NORTHEAST. SUBTROPICAL AND
ATLANTIC MOISTURE CONVERGES AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING SHORT WAVE.

FORCING MECHANISMS INCLUDE THE DIVERGENT RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A
H25 180 KT JET STREAK AS WELL AS A TIGHTENING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ISENTROPIC LIFT AT H85 AND GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING
INFLOW AT THE SURFACE THROUGH H925. THIS ALL LEADS TO LARGE SCALE
ASCENT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS FROM THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WHERE THE 850 MILLIBAR LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS
THE REGION AND LOCATION OF HEAVIEST SNOWFALL AND POTENTIAL MIXING
WHICH COULD HOLD DOWN THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS.
00Z ECMWF REMAINS THE WARMEST AND FURTHEST NW OF THE MODEL SUITE AND
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MEANWHILE THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS COLDER
AND MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN MOST OF THE MODELS. TREND HAS BEEN FOR A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE SURFACE LOW TRACK. GIVEN THE
LACK OF BLOCKING UPSTREAM AND NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE CONFLUENCE
ZONE. THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE MEAN HAS THE 850 MILLIBAR LOW TRACK
CROSSING NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND INTO INTERIOR
SE MASSACHUSETTS. ALSO EXAMINED THE 21Z SREF WHICH HAS THE STRONGEST
SIGNAL OF 4 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS JUST NORTH OF THESE AREAS. SO FOR NOW
IT APPEARS THAT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MASS PIKE INTO SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE SHOULD RECEIVE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TOTALS.
 

St. Bear

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For those of us in northern NJ/PA

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
242 AM EST MON JAN 26 2009

...WINTRY WEATHER WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY...

NJZ001-007-008-PAZ054-055-060>062-262200-
/O.NEW.KPHI.WS.A.0003.090127T2300Z-090128T2300Z/
SUSSEX-WARREN-MORRIS-CARBON-MONROE-BERKS-LEHIGH-NORTHAMPTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEWTON...WASHINGTON...MORRISTOWN...
JIM THORPE...STROUDSBURG...READING...ALLENTOWN...BETHLEHEM...
EASTON
242 AM EST MON JAN 26 2009

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TUESDAY AND
THEN MOVE NORTHEAST CROSSING SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEDNESDAY.
SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING. THE SNOW WILL THEN CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING BEFORE
MIXING WITH AND POSSIBLY CHANGING TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE POCONOS AS
WELL AS EAST CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE
COULD ALSO BE A COATING OF ICE IF THE SNOW CHANGES OVER TO
FREEZING RAIN ON WEDNESDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF AND
END BY WEDNESDAY EVENING.

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
 

drjeff

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crossing my fingers for a northern VT dump :spread:

Better use BOTH hands, your toes, your legs, arms and eyes ;) This one's got some of So VT, the Berkshires, So NH and the Catskills as jackpot land. And with forcast speed of the storm, even when it finally gets a big gulp of moisture somewhere off Long Island and starts to rapidly intensify, it will be too far away and pulling away to quickly to get No VT involved with significant snow.

BTW, talk about hype factor, this storm is now a [size=+4]420+[/size] page thread over in the accuweather forums :rolleyes:
 

Glenn

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I'll take less snow in CT, if it means more snow for Southern VT.
 
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