The Official 12/5-12/6 Storm Discussion Thread

Zand · Nov 29, 2005

Kill me for starting this a week beforehand, but there's a strong chance of a large storm Monday-Tuesday of next week. I'm confident about it because every weather station is noting it and th GFS has shown it for about 5 days now.

highpeaksdrifter · Nov 29, 2005

U da man Z, get them comin.

Bosefius · Nov 29, 2005

Why would I kill you for putting the thought of fresh pow into my mind? Instead, I thank you.

Strat · Nov 29, 2005

So where is it that you see the GFS model? Would like to be able to check them out myself...

Zand · Nov 29, 2005

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

A few models in there, including the GFS which is the second one down.

Speaking of GFS, the latest run shows the storm hugging the coast the whole way up with the air staying just cold enough that it should remain all snow inland. Any east wind will change it to rain on the immediate coast this time of year, but it shouldn't effect the ski areas. It shows a good 18 hours of storm at this point, as well.

Strat · Nov 30, 2005

I'm not seeing this... wanna direct link me?

Tin Woodsman · Nov 30, 2005

Zand said:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/

A few models in there, including the GFS which is the second one down.

Speaking of GFS, the latest run shows the storm hugging the coast the whole way up with the air staying just cold enough that it should remain all snow inland. Any east wind will change it to rain on the immediate coast this time of year, but it shouldn't effect the ski areas. It shows a good 18 hours of storm at this point, as well.

Zand -

If you follow this closely, you should know that the GFS in particular has been just awful this year. no need to hug the model that spits out the ideal solution. The UKMET says this impacts far SE New England only, and it's been far more accurate. Sure, there's going to be a nice storm on the East Coast next week, but I'll be suprised if it verifies as the GFS currently depicts.

highpeaksdrifter · Dec 1, 2005

What do you think Z?

http://www.skiingweatherman.com/weather.php

salida · Dec 1, 2005

Again... the GFS sucks this year... absolutely awful, and sweet the TV mets hyped it, they must be right.

It's all speculation, no one knows, not even the pro mets. If I were you'd I'd be focusing on the negatively tilted system over the plain states that is going to give Maine ski areas mostly rain, NH a mix, and VT probably all snow. Look for 6-12 inches on the hil tops between tonight and Saturday Morning from, Killington thru Jay...

Zand · Dec 2, 2005

The current time table for the storm is Monday night into Tuesday. At this point, New England is labeled in a 6-8" snowfall range, but that should go up in the future.

I'm starting a new topic for southern New Englanders to report Sunday's storm in. It's looking minor, but something to talk about while Monday night's storm draws nearer. There is also the potential for another large storm at the end of next week.

ctenidae · Dec 2, 2005

Looks to me like NOAA's calling for "Slight chance of snow" to "Accumulations less than one inch" from New York to Maine.

I don't see a big storm. If it comes, great- no complaints, but I'm not buying a snowblower just yet.

Zand · Dec 2, 2005

NOAA says "signifigant snowfall Monday night" for me. It also says around 3" Sunday.

ctenidae · Dec 2, 2005

Where?

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/ifps/MapClick.php?CityName=Leicester&state=MA&site=BOX

Zand · Dec 2, 2005

INCREASING TO LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT (EXCEPT CHESHIRE CTY NH)
CHANGING QUICKLY TO ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR WRAPS INTO REGION. MAIN
THRUST OF STORM LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATING SNOW POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING IN WAKE OF
DEPARTING STORM. CURRENT QPF FAVORS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF SNOW.
HOWEVER DESPITE THE FACT THERE IS ALOT OF COLD AIR TO DRAW UPON OVER
CANADA...SOME SIGNALS GOING AGAINST HEAVY QPF ARE A DAMPENING RIDGE
UPSTREAM OVER GREENLAND AND NO SURFACE HIGH TO OUR NORTH DURING THE
EVENT. BUT GIVEN CURRENT PROJECTIONS...WILL ISSUE AN SPS TO
GIVE A HEADS UP BEFORE THE WEEKEND.

That's from the forecast discussion link from that page. I see no place where it mentions "slight chance".

gores95 · Dec 3, 2005

I thought the Monday/Tuesday storm was forecasted to move up the coast and out to sea. Possible bigger snows for the major cities nearer to the coast. Interior sections may miss out. :angry:

Don't shoot the messenger...just what I had heard lately.

Greg · Dec 5, 2005

Gonna be a bust for Northeast ski country. Looks like the mid-Atlantic will make out okay. The southern New England coast may also pick up some decent snow. Anyone remember last season when the Cape and southeast NE got all those storms..? :roll:

highpeaksdrifter · Dec 5, 2005

Greg said:
Gonna be a bust for Northeast ski country. Looks like the mid-Atlantic will make out okay. The southern New England coast may also pick up some decent snow. Anyone remember last season when the Cape and southeast NE got all those storms..? :roll:

Yes, and I remember nemesis (can’t recall his handle) wrote that he got snowed in his house on the Cape.

These near misses hurt.
:angry:

hammer · Dec 5, 2005

At least it's forecasted to be cold all week...no excuses for New England ski areas not to have the snow guns blazing...

thetrailboss · Dec 5, 2005

It will be :angry: for skiing, but

for business since snow will be in the cities and folks always think that snow in backyard in [insert Southern New England Metro Area] = Snow in Mountains.

So our skiing will suck, but the resorts will probably do well. LOTS of snowmaking going on...Sunapee will be on at least 15 runs and on five lifts this weekend. Burke is looking good for opening as well.

ctenidae · Dec 5, 2005

I think we're going to try to hit Sunapee on Sunday, depending on how it goes for them (and how our weekend pans out)

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