12/5 Storm Discussion Thread

Bostonian · Dec 2, 2009

Per Noaa:

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PASS FAR ENOUGH EAST OF OUR
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE STORM WILL
TRACK FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED AND HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT ON OUR REGION.

andrec10 · Dec 2, 2009

What else is new, we get missed/dissed again!:uzi:

Glenn · Dec 2, 2009

I'm watching this one. Regardless of how the storm tracks, looks like cold weather from late this week well into next. Friggin finally!

JD · Dec 2, 2009

inch and a half of rain forcast...that is gonna do some damage...boating should be epic though!

wa-loaf · Dec 2, 2009

JD said:
inch and a half of rain forcast...that is gonna do some damage...boating should be epic though!

That's the Thursday storm. Gonna be 60 around here.

There's a potential for something Fri night and Saturday. At the very least cold weather will be in for a bit.

JD · Dec 2, 2009

Ah. Looks like flurries for us on Noaa....

Greg · Dec 2, 2009

Bostonian said:
Per Noaa:

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PASS FAR ENOUGH EAST OF OUR
REGION SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT TO PREVENT A SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL A LOW PROBABILITY THAT THE STORM WILL
TRACK FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED AND HAVE A BIGGER IMPACT ON OUR REGION.

3 days out, I actually prefer the unfavorable track....means it can only improve. Nothing worse that predictions of a bomb 3 days out and the the track goes East.:smash:

Harvey · Dec 2, 2009

No question that you'd rather have a storm track too far east vs west. If it does end up east, then at least that means it will be cold. Plus it always seems like storms are more likely to be farther west of forecast vs the other way around.

Greg · Dec 2, 2009

harvey44 said:
No question that you'd rather have a storm track too far east vs west. If it does end up east, then at least that means it will be cold. Plus it always seems like storms are more likely to be farther west of forecast vs the other way around.

Good point. There are two "unfavorable" tracks. The one we have now is way less unfavorable than that other unfavorable one. :lol:

Grassi21 · Dec 2, 2009

JD said:
inch and a half of rain forcast...that is gonna do some damage...boating should be epic though!

Got dry-suite?

4aprice · Dec 2, 2009

Boy the models and the forecasters are all over the place with these storms and beyond. Doesn't seem like anyone has a handle on it. I've read everything from extended cold to more of the November warmth we've had over the next month. It hard to get excited about any prospects right now.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ

KingM · Dec 2, 2009

4aprice said:
Boy the models and the forecasters are all over the place with these storms and beyond. Doesn't seem like anyone has a handle on it. I've read everything from extended cold to more of the November warmth we've had over the next month. It hard to get excited about any prospects right now.

It really does remind me of the start of 2006/2007, where the weather kept sucking, but was about to turn favorable any moment now.

There was always just one more warm/rainy stretch and then this mythical cold air mass would come roaring down from Canada. It eventually came, of course, but I prefer not to wait until February if I can help it.

Harvey · Dec 2, 2009

KingM said:
It really does remind me of the start of 2006/2007, where the weather kept sucking, but was about to turn favorable any moment now.

There was always just one more warm/rainy stretch and then this mythical cold air mass would come roaring down from Canada.

This is so 100% true I can't stand it.

Riv already pointed out the cruel irony in the "cold start to November?" thread title.

Glenn · Dec 2, 2009

Hopefully, we'll have a better idea of what this is going to do by Thursday. I bet a lot of effort is on the "event" that's rolling through tonight and early tomorrow. Already heard the wind could be nasty later tonight.

WJenness · Dec 2, 2009

Glenn said:
Hopefully, we'll have a better idea of what this is going to do by Thursday. I bet a lot of effort is on the "event" that's rolling through tonight and early tomorrow. Already heard the wind could be nasty later tonight.

Wind & Rain is still better than the ice storm we had about this time last year...

Let's hope we don't have another one of those this year.

-w

hammer · Dec 2, 2009

WJenness said:
Wind & Rain is still better than the ice storm we had about this time last year...

Let's hope we don't have another one of those this year.

-w

Please no...4 days without electricity was not fun (and I know I didn't have it as bad as many).

drjeff · Dec 2, 2009

KingM said:
It really does remind me of the start of 2006/2007, where the weather kept sucking, but was about to turn favorable any moment now.

There was always just one more warm/rainy stretch and then this mythical cold air mass would come roaring down from Canada. It eventually came, of course, but I prefer not to wait until February if I can help it.

Yup, frustrating!!! :smash: :smash: :smash:

The big thing in watching the long range models quite regularly over the last few years, is when these air masses from Canada this time a year that look very promising far out in terms of cold air, is that this time of year, they tend to be a solid 10-15 degrees warmer in actuality than what the models suggest 7 to 10 days out. Much of that basically seems to happen, because of the following. If you think of the mass of cold air from Canada as a "U" shape, that mass of air usually originates from somewhere around Alaska. As it move to the East, it's not just spreading East, but also South. The air also flows counterclockwise within the air mass so there is mixing, especially on the Eastern side of the airmass with warmer air from the Southern part of the pool of cold air. So when that cold air roars across the US Canadian Border in the upper midwest and places in Montana, North Dakota and Minnesota are sub zero, if that pool of air plunges down towards the gulf coast (as it often does), by the time it gets to the East Coast, (especially the Northeast) that pool of sub zero air is getting tempered with air coming up along the Eastern side of that "U" shaped pool of air that has already been down by the gulf coast, and hence why we see temps in the 20's, not the sub zero stuff alot this time of year

I'm done with my weather geek-dom now and headed back to my usual tooth geek-dom now

Glenn · Dec 2, 2009

That ice storm was brutal. My wife and I were at the mountain that entire week. We got rained out one day, then Friday it was shut due to power being out. I took some amazing pics that day. The damage was just incredible.

bigbog · Dec 4, 2009

Certainly a rocky start...and certainly was nice though to roll down the windows yesterday when stuck in the #495_parking_lot-thing. Man, I'd forgotten how much fun #495 is/used to be...LOL Maybe the nighttime hours of some resorts are a thing of the future with the artificial stuff that Dan Egan put down @Tenney ??? I never took time to read into that but...with the sudden swings in weather systems it might be the future, however sad that might be. I think with a good job offer I get out west...might be "Add Em' Up, Move Em' Out"...for me...:roll: ...Or even BC(Canada)....

jaja111 · Dec 4, 2009

I can't even look at the weather anymore. It constantly goes from predictions of heavy lake effect to warmer and light rain showers the morning of said predicted event. Thank god meteorologists aren't medical doctors, "you have cancer.....now we think its just a cold" or engineers, "that's a catastrophic structural failure waiting to happen right there..... today we believe it to be a small amount of dirt which happened to look like a crack", or work for NASA, "Tank foam could never cause any substantial damage to the orbiter if it were to strike it during launch........." well...... never mind on that one.

On the western periphery the only good thing about any system Saturday is that the night temps have finally lowered almost enough to start the guns. It's all gonna be about the guns in the first half of Dec.

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