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12/19 - 12/20 Storm Discussion Thread

The Sneak

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Mighty Ullr

Have I not more than tithed in the form of equipment upgrades? Have I not consumed in your name many beers darker than the permanent night of scandinavian winter? Have I not spread the gospel of pow? Have I not endured many an accursed, dismal fallow weather pattern devoid of your blessings? I beseech thee to look upon your followers with great favor come the sabbath, so that BEast may be rocking on monday.
 

Glenn

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Hoping it takes the "Major Impact" track and we get stuck in VT Sunday night. I've got plenty of beer and firewood for such an occurrence.
.

:snow:
 

billski

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I think the bloggers at weather.com get more excited than we do!
"Wow look at all that cold air....... "
"I'm expecting this to be our biggest storm system so far this year"

Happily taking the world out of context.... :)

I will gladly do the night-before-drive-up. Standby KingM.... Riders?

Going to pay homage to my Ullr statue now.....
 

hammer

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Latest NWS discussion:

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WHILE WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THIS TIME...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH THOSE READINGS AT OR BELOW ZERO DURING THE NIGHT AND IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS/TEENS DURING THE DAY. WIND TRAJECTORIES FAVOR ANY OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF/LIGHT ACTIVITY ON THE OUTER CAPE.

THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR THE WEEKEND. FROM TIME TO TIME...VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ON THE EAST COAST AROUND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE WILD SWINGS IN THE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT AS THE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME PROJECTING HOW THE POLAR VORTEX AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE INTERACT. FOR THE MOST PART...THE MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN AN OUT-TO-SEA SCENARIO WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS OF THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUN...THESE MEMBERS INCLUDE THE GFS...PARALLEL GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST AND THE GGEM IS ALSO CLOSE ENOUGH TO GRAZE THE AREA.

IN A NUTSHELL...THE SUNDAY/MONDAY FORECAST IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE. CHANCES ARE THAT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL GRAZE OR MISS THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR VORTEX MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION AND PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE JUST RIGHT...SNE COULD BE IN FOR A HECK OF A SNOWSTORM. IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE NORMALLY-RELIABLE ECMWF TO BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT IS.

OVERALL...EXPECT POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA REMAINS TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE ON.
 

Greg

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Translation: "We have no clue what the hell is gonna happen."
 

WinnChill

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I can see that the evolving pattern over the next week or two will be more favorable for one of these storms coming up the coast. There is some high pressure blocking over Greenland which will be shifting westward and forcing a trough over us...we typically look for storms to flare up during the onset of this transition. So I see the increased potential and it's been showing indications of it for a while. However, I'm not a big fan of articles saying..."If the storm is close to us, we get snow...if it's far away, we don't"...yeah, no kidding. I suppose a team who has the most points near the end of a game has a good chance of winning.

Anyways, just my .02.

Cheers
 

WinnChill

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Greg,

To a degree, we don't know the details (or course the devil is in the details), but we're just saying that the evolving pattern is more favorable to something big. That's really all that can be done.
 

bigbog

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Well it was 32F in Kingfield at 5pm with windchill bringing it down to 27F...so Sugarloaf should be definitely making snow starting tonight, then the colder temps are coming in tomorrow...right through the week(-end..I think). Just tune/wax..and bring everything ya' got:)rolleyes:) and book in northern NewEngland..noone should have any problems once you get up north..
With the wackiness of the weather systems this last 2 decades....the weather isn't that predictable these days...imho, not even with rows of CRAYs and IBM's supercomputers. ..And agreed, from what one hears, and what it seems like = all they can do is predict from what is already developing..somewhere...y/n?

My Bad!..Greg..was this..Translation: "We have no clue what the hell is gonna happen."...with your other job..?..or was this about the weather..?..(just a little, little bit of humor)

$.01
 
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WinnChill

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Yep, we'll get into optimal snowmaking temps overnight and all the way into the weekend--temps increase slightly by Monday though. Although, summit temps Wed night/Thurs AM may be a little too cold for pipes...I've never worked mountain crew so not sure how real cold temps affects equipment. Also, just FYI (not to split hairs or anything), but windchill is only a measure of how we feel when exposed to wind...it doesn't effect ambient air temperature. Not to say wind doesn't help enhance snowfall--it does in upslope situations, etc.--but the windchill temp is just a comfort parameter. However, a temperature that DOES have an effect on snowmaking is wet-bulb temperature...the temperature in between temp and dewpoint, or, the temperature at which you cool the air by evaporating water (a cooling process) into it....or basically what the snowguns do by vaporizing water droplets. Well, this has probably been kicked around the forum before--I'm new here so please excuse my blathering.

As for predictions, you can only forecast so much until the time of the event--you then go into "nowcasting" and making fine-tune tweaks as things play out.
 

Warp Daddy

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yada yada yada ~~~~~~~~~~~ the "weather guessers" :D . E oops meteorologists are at it again. Can't get too excited bout the noize it'll snow when it does till then YAWN
 

WinnChill

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Alright Warp Daddy, here's one for ya (at my own expense)...

....so the teacher said to little Johnny, "Oh my Johnny, you got half the answers wrong on your test!" Little Johnny replies, "Ah, that's ok Teach! I'm gonna be a meteorologist!"
 

Warp Daddy

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Alright Warp Daddy, here's one for ya (at my own expense)...

....so the teacher said to little Johnny, "Oh my Johnny, you got half the answers wrong on your test!" Little Johnny replies, "Ah, that's ok Teach! I'm gonna be a meteorologist!"


Lmao Hey WC welcome to the forum i meant no harm you guys have a tuff time keeping US happy :D

BTW heres one on MY profession :

If You can't do ------------TeaCH

if you can't teach ---------------teach education.

If you can't teach education --------------------become the college president :D:D
 

polski

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If I were Matt Drudge I'd be tempted to go with an

siren.gif

UPSLOPE SNOW ALERT


Not that I'd bet a quarter on any forecast this far in advance, but ...

Latest NWS-Burlington forecast discussion eyes possible long-duration upslope snow event this weekend into early next week, draws comparison to 3/4/06 which produced 30-40" (!!!!) at Mt Mansfield. Scott Braaten sees "some similarities but this event will be nowhere near the size/scope" of "the benchmark of upslope events."

Meanwhile, NWS-Gray ME also sees precip this weekend in a cold NW flow, and then early next week monitoring that potential large coastal storm.

p.s. WinnChill, I really appreciate your perspective. I'm a wx weenie myself, won't deny it ;-). It's just pretty cool to spot the first signs of something potentially significant, especially on those occasions when it actually comes true.
 
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polski

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Mighty Ullr

Have I not more than tithed in the form of equipment upgrades? Have I not consumed in your name many beers darker than the permanent night of scandinavian winter? Have I not spread the gospel of pow? Have I not endured many an accursed, dismal fallow weather pattern devoid of your blessings? I beseech thee to look upon your followers with great favor come the sabbath, so that BEast may be rocking on monday.
What is it all the kids these days say?

Oh yeah.

This.

:lol:
 
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