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.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH TEMPERATURES AVERAGING 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WHILE WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE DURING THIS TIME...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE VERY COLD...WITH THOSE READINGS AT OR BELOW ZERO DURING THE NIGHT AND IN THE SINGLE NUMBERS/TEENS DURING THE DAY. WIND TRAJECTORIES FAVOR ANY OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO REMAIN OFFSHORE...BUT CAN/T RULE OUT SOME BRIEF/LIGHT ACTIVITY ON THE OUTER CAPE.
THE FORECAST THEN BECOMES MORE COMPLEX FOR THE WEEKEND. FROM TIME TO TIME...VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE MEMBERS HAVE BEEN ADVERTISING STRONG COASTAL LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ON THE EAST COAST AROUND THE SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME. HOWEVER...THE WILD SWINGS IN THE SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE PRESENT AS THE GUIDANCE IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME PROJECTING HOW THE POLAR VORTEX AND A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE INTERACT. FOR THE MOST PART...THE MODELS SOLUTIONS HAVE SHOWN AN OUT-TO-SEA SCENARIO WITH LITTLE EFFECT ON SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AS OF THE LATEST 00Z MODEL RUN...THESE MEMBERS INCLUDE THE GFS...PARALLEL GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST AND THE GGEM IS ALSO CLOSE ENOUGH TO GRAZE THE AREA.
IN A NUTSHELL...THE SUNDAY/MONDAY FORECAST IS A LOW CONFIDENCE ONE. CHANCES ARE THAT ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL GRAZE OR MISS THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE NORTHERN STREAM POLAR VORTEX MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION AND PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE JUST RIGHT...SNE COULD BE IN FOR A HECK OF A SNOWSTORM. IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL SHIFT WESTWARD IN THE NORMALLY-RELIABLE ECMWF TO BE SIGNIFICANT SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS IT IS.
OVERALL...EXPECT POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE FLOW OVER NORTH AMERICA REMAINS TOUGH TO GET A HANDLE ON.
... but the boss said the web site hits are down and we need to goose the ratings or they cut our budget....Translation: "We have no clue what the hell is gonna happen."
Alright Warp Daddy, here's one for ya (at my own expense)...
....so the teacher said to little Johnny, "Oh my Johnny, you got half the answers wrong on your test!" Little Johnny replies, "Ah, that's ok Teach! I'm gonna be a meteorologist!"
What is it all the kids these days say?Mighty Ullr
Have I not more than tithed in the form of equipment upgrades? Have I not consumed in your name many beers darker than the permanent night of scandinavian winter? Have I not spread the gospel of pow? Have I not endured many an accursed, dismal fallow weather pattern devoid of your blessings? I beseech thee to look upon your followers with great favor come the sabbath, so that BEast may be rocking on monday.