27th-28th Storm Potential

from_the_NEK · Dec 15, 2010

GFS is predicting something but it looks to develop too far north and warm :-x

On the other hand the GFS is looking slightly better for the 20th.

drjeff · Dec 15, 2010

from_the_NEK said:
GFS is predicting something but it looks to develop too far north and warm :-x

On the other hand the GFS is looking slightly better for the 20th.

The 240+ hour GFS has a notroius history of making things look like the "storm of the millenium" and then have it amount to absolutely nothing. Got to remember that the elements of energy that are being modeled that far out basically have to go around the globe before they *could* come into play for us. If the GFS at the 120 hour run still has something, then it's time to pay some attention to things.

from_the_NEK · Dec 16, 2010

drjeff said:
The 240+ hour GFS has a notroius history of making things look like the "storm of the millenium" and then have it amount to absolutely nothing. Got to remember that the elements of energy that are being modeled that far out basically have to go around the globe before they *could* come into play for us. If the GFS at the 120 hour run still has something, then it's time to pay some attention to things.

Yep, it's already gone

Maybe now we will get a classic Nor-Easter instead.

billski · Dec 16, 2010

thursday night, NWS BOS:
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM IS APPEARING MORE
PROBABLE WITH A GROWING CONSENSUS OF MODELSMusic to my ears..

IT IS STILL A FEW DAYS FROM THE EVENT SO THE DETAILS WILL NEED TO
BE IRONED OUT.

Tell that to the weathertainment industry. They've already put a run on the milk and bread...

BTV says:
HAVE PLACED LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY FOR ROUGHLY THE EASTERN HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA. COULD
BE A PROLONGED PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH PRECIPITATION STARTING AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

Burkie Baby...

Looks like a mandatory automobile ski and petrol load will be necessary on Sunday.
All points alert for early Monday... Navigation meeting Sunday night. Storm warning preparations
are urged: Fritos, twizzlers, overnight gear, camera and tunes. Christmas may be canceled due to inclement weather.

Need to cross check with snowforecast and internet rock stars

snoseek · Dec 16, 2010

Sun/Mon off!!!!! Bring it!!!!!

billski · Dec 17, 2010

this morning, the Wino continues to stumble along:

*** A WINTER STORM REMAINS POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON POTENTIAL IMPACTS ***

UNFORTUNATELY THE 00Z MODELS HAVE FLIPPED-FLOP FROM THEIR 12Z CYCLE

THEREFORE WE DECIDED TO CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST VERY LITTLE AND
JUST BLEND IN A BIT OF THE NEW GUIDANCE. THIS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
THE HIGHEST RISK AREA FOR SUBSTANTIAL SNOW AND WIND WILL BE ACROSS
EASTERN MA AND POSSIBLY INTO RI. HOWEVER GIVEN THE LARGE MODEL
FLUCTUATIONS FROM RUN TO RUN ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO LOCK INTO ONE GIVEN
SOLUTION AND ELABORATE ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WILL JUST HAVE TO BE
PATIENT AND SEE HOW THIS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND WAIT FOR MODELS TO
DISPLAY RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY.'
Source: boston forecast office nws

The Burlington VT office agrees with the above.
LOOKING FURTHER OUT TWD CHRISTMAS THE LATEST ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
WE HAVE ANOTHER VERY SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY.

Portland says:
COMPUTER MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK OFFSHORE OF NEW
ENGLAND... A FAVORABLE TRACK FOR SNOWFALL. HOWEVER...JUST HOW FAR
OFFSHORE IT TRACKS WILL DETERMINE WHETHER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
GETS SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OR ONLY GETS BRUSHED WITH A FEW FLAKES

billski · Dec 17, 2010

crap-u

How many inches is "disruptive"???this looks like a commuter forecast...
I have too much off-slope time on my day off...

"The period of concern for New England is from Sunday night into Monday for what could turn out to be a full-blown nor'easter with the possibility of a foot of snow."

hammer · Dec 17, 2010

billski said:
crap-u

How many inches is "disruptive"???this looks like a commuter forecast...
I have too much off-slope time on my day off...

"The period of concern for New England is from Sunday night into Monday for what could turn out to be a full-blown nor'easter with the possibility of a foot of snow."

Wow...I didn't know that the forecasts could be that precise 10 days out...;-)

UVSHTSTRM · Dec 17, 2010

So why is the topic for this thread about the 27th and 28th? And why are people discussing this weekend within this thread?

billski · Dec 17, 2010

UVSHTSTRM said:
So why is the topic for this thread about the 27th and 28th? And why are people discussing this weekend within this thread?

because somebody named billski is posting in the wrong thread. We need a 19th20th thread.

St. Bear · Dec 17, 2010

hammer said:
Wow...I didn't know that the forecasts could be that precise 10 days out...;-)

This forecast is for this weekend, not next. So it's 3 days out.

drjeff · Dec 17, 2010

billski said:
because somebody named billski is posting in the wrong thread. We need a 19th20th thread.

That would be this thread below

http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?t=87505&page=7

Greg · Dec 17, 2010

UVSHTSTRM said:
So why is the topic for this thread about the 27th and 28th? And why are people discussing this weekend within this thread?

No effin clue.

billski said:
because somebody named billski is posting in the wrong thread. We need a 19th20th thread.

We already had one. Renamed:

http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?t=87505

hammer · Dec 17, 2010

St. Bear said:
This forecast is for this weekend, not next. So it's 3 days out.

I already knew that...hence the ;-);-);-)

from_the_NEK · Dec 17, 2010

The storm now looking to be on the 28/29th might actually be turning into something promising . Still 11 days out, so who knows what is going to happen.

billski · Dec 24, 2010

NWS just stuck their neck out for 26-27 and is calling it a coastal event. Too early to know for certain.

KingM · Dec 24, 2010

from_the_NEK said:
The storm now looking to be on the 28/29th might actually be turning into something promising . Still 11 days out, so who knows what is going to happen.

Every storm 11 days out this year looks great, while every storm 24 hours out is either out to sea or far to the south. A lot like last year, in fact.

billski · Dec 24, 2010

KingM said:
Every storm 11 days out this year looks great, while every storm 24 hours out is either out to sea or far to the south. A lot like last year, in fact.

Well, it gives us something to talk about!

polski · Dec 24, 2010

yep, looking like another Yawgoo Mauler, at best.

I've got a couple free passes to Blue Hills (which would be a new area for me) and was pleased recently to see that a certain earned-turns spot near me had been mowed pretty extensively so I'm hoping we at least get a reasonable accumulation near the coast, if not up north.

Though this from NWS Taunton's new forecast discussion is potentially intriguing ...

SPECIAL NOTE AT 1140 AM...WE HAVE GOTTEN A GOOD LOOK AT THE 12Z NAM
AS WELL AS A QUICK LOOK AT THE 12Z GFS THROUGH TUESDAY /SO FAR/. WE
HAVE SEEN THE DRAMATIC TREND THAT THE GFS HAS TAKEN ON THIS RUN...AS
WELL AS THE W TREND ON THE NAM /THOUGH REMAINING WELL S OF THE
BENCHMARK/. WE WANTED TO NOTE THAT WE HAVE RECEIVED MESSAGES FROM
HPC ABOUT INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS ON BOTH THE NAM AND GFS RUNS THIS
MORNING. HAVING WORKED ON THIS DESK FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...ONE
THING THAT HAS SHOWN THROUGH IS THE LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY
BETWEEN INDIVIDUAL MODELS. WHILE WE ARE NOT RULING OUT A SHIFT TO
THE W...WE DO NOT WANT TO JUMP ON THE BANDWAGON EITHER. WANT TO
WAIT UNTIL WE GET A LOOK AT THE ECMWF RUN BEFORE MAKING ANY MAJOR
CHANGES.

KingM · Dec 24, 2010

polski said:
yep, looking like another Yawgoo Mauler, at best.

LOL.

I'm pretty sure I've seen you or someone else use that phrase before, but still...

27th-28th Storm Potential

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