1/26 - 27 Storm Discussion Thread

Madroch said:

If it is a wed storm, I may try to pre-position Tues night. If it is a tues or thurs storm I may miss it altogethor unless it is serious enough to close businesses. WED please.

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snoseek said:

I would imagine the skiing down there in Conn. is about as good as it ever gets.

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Greg said:

Put it this way. Would you guess this is CT?

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...AND WE
WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE THREAT OF A BLOCKBUSTER WINTER STORM...

AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY
NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...

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Euler said:

Fingers crossed!

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Euler said:

NWS ALY office forecaster is getting dramatic for this far out:


Fingers crossed!

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THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHEASTWARD,
POSSIBLY BRINGING OUR REGION ANOTHER WINTER STORM FOR LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY. THE TRACK OF THE POTENTIAL SYSTEM REMAINS
UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER, PRESENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST MAINLY SNOW IN OUR
REGION, WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION ON THE COASTAL PLAIN.

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• Plow-able Event
• Multiple Sick Day
• Extended Absence
• Prohibited Travel Conditions

• Energy Bars
• Wax and Waxing Iron
• Vouchers
• Helmet
• Shovel
• Broom
• Weather Radio
• Beer
• Steel-edged Boards, preferably with mounting brackets
• Winter boots
• Twinkies
• Insulated pants

St. Bear said:

NWS PHI isn't as exuberant.

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Glenn said:

Quote from NWS Albany: FTW!

WE KEPT THE PCPN...AS SNOW...AND IF IT MATERIALIZES WE MAY
NEED YARD STICKS TO MEASURE THE SNOWFALL...SINCE A TREMENDOUS
MOISTURE FETCH IS EXPECTED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC.

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• It is far too soon to precisely forecast snow/ice totals for any given city/location.
  
• However, this storm has the potential to dump at least 1 foot of snow over a large swath of the Northeast, with much higher totals exceeding 20" in spots.
  
• High winds, downed trees/powerlines, and power outages are expected Wednesday into Thursday, particularly near the coast."

billski said:

FIS: "Trough and storm threats all through out the next 10 days."

Snowforecast.com: "Wednesday--We've been watching yet another potential storm pulls in from the south--this could slow up and deliver quite a blow"

Josh Fox:"The cold will relent next week and we will shift our focus to a major east coast system which will evolve out of the massive cold air damming signature. This system has many question marks but for Vermont it remains mostly a "snow or no" during the middle of next week. More on this tomorrow. "

AWX: "Whenever the models try to warm us up, some other index keeps us cold. It's like the models have stopped trying...knowing we're in an unreal winter...one that is rare and only happens a few times in a long life."

Even Weather channel is getting into the act:
"Peak storm impact in Northeast: Late Tuesday through early Thursday

• It is far too soon to precisely forecast snow/ice totals for any given city/location.
  
• However, this storm has the potential to dump at least 1 foot of snow over a large swath of the Northeast, with much higher totals exceeding 20" in spots.
  
• High winds, downed trees/powerlines, and power outages are expected Wednesday into Thursday, particularly near the coast."

Even Accuweather is getting onboard with their hyperbole:

Next Week's Snowstorm Is a Big Deal

"More and more signs are pointing toward a major storm along much of the Atlantic Seaboard next week, meaning a wind-whipped snow for some areas and wind-driven rain for others.
The storm could rank right up there with the Christmas Weekend Blizzard and could hit part of the same area, or different areas farther inland. No matter what, it looks like a "big deal."


Now I'm getting excited!

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While the threat is several days away, current climatology and guidance supports a very high threat of a large storm system over the eastern United States in this time frame. Whether it is rain or snow, there appears to be a large amount of moisture involved with ECMWF QPF up to 4in in northern Delaware and southeastern Pennsylvania. I know many are critical of predictions of storms well in advance, but meteorology is about understanding the synoptic setup that leads to the development of these storms. Watching the evolution of this situation will be very interesting and I am becoming increasingly enthused for those well inland. Even along the coast heavy rain and high winds are possible with a western storm track so threats will be high with any storm scenario. Stay tuned for updates throughout the weekend. For now if I had to make a forecast, this would be the precipitation scenario map.

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