Mar 5/6

billski · Mar 4, 2011

ScottySkis · Mar 4, 2011

I hope these snow map is correct looks like Monday will be epic

ScottySkis · Mar 5, 2011

http://madriverglenweather.blogspot.com/ updated on Friday March 4,for Mad River Glen he saying rain up to an inch on Sunday will turn into snow on Monday

WinnChill · Mar 5, 2011

A very text-heavy, complex forecast for N VT (Jay's forecast)....places like Jay/Burke/Bolton/Smuggs/Stowe may get summit accumulations.

Will check back in a couple of hours, then heading north today (Stewartstown, NH) to play a show tonight.

billski · Mar 5, 2011

BTV, 8AM Saturday
STILL
VERY LITTLE MODEL-TO- MODEL CONSISTENCY...THEREFORE LOTS OF ROOMS
FOR ERROR AND CHANGES IN THE FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
CLOSER TO NORMAL BY SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH COLDER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA...AFTER A MILD START TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE.

deadheadskier · Mar 5, 2011

got 20 minutes down the road this morning and aborted

was hoping the rain was gonna hold off. :smash:

gmcunni · Mar 5, 2011

deadheadskier said:
got 20 minutes down the road this morning and aborted

was hoping the rain was gonna hold off. :smash:

i bailed too. was planning on VT today but will just put in a couple hours local (hopefully)

Magog Fishy · Mar 5, 2011

Using the most recent NWS Hourly Weatherly graph data it is looking like the two areas that have the best potential for a big snow event for Monday are Stowe/Smuggs and Jay, although right now the forecasted snow density is for heavy wet snow. For Stowe, NWS data has 17.5" of snow on 1.51" of precip. For Jay, NWS has 15" of snow on 1.59" of precip.

If cold air moves in quicker and produces a less wet snow, could be one of the better single day storms of the season but I'll speculate that Stowe is a 20% chance and Jay is a 25% chance for a powdery snow. I'm probably going to pass on Monday, but will check the forecasts again tonight.

I was going to include my chart with the numbers, but I can't figure out how to format charts on Alpine Zone.

Does anyone know (Billski?) if NWS calculates snow density -- I didn't see it anywhere on their Hourly Weatherly Graph.

Note: for Mt. Mansfield the data above is from elevation 3,444' and for Jay is from elevation 2,499'. About a year ago I could get NWS data from a higher elevation at Jay, but now I can't figure out how to do it.

deadheadskier · Mar 5, 2011

deadheadskier said:
got 20 minutes down the road this morning and aborted

was hoping the rain was gonna hold off. :smash:

of course now the weather is great. I encountered a steady rain for ten minutes and said screw it.

Truthfully, I think for the first time in my life the cost of gas factored in my decision. My thought was, do I really want to blow through 6 gallons of gas at $3.40 a gallon to potentially ski in the rain.

reefer · Mar 5, 2011

Sad but true

deadheadskier said:
of course now the weather is great. I encountered a steady rain for ten minutes and said screw it.

Truthfully, I think for the first time in my life the cost of gas factored in my decision. My thought was, do I really want to blow through 6 gallons of gas at $3.40 a gallon to potentially ski in the rain.

Did play a factor in today also. Would have done twice as much driving as that solo...............sucks.
At work today just in case Monday pans out..............................
Actually getting a lot more done at work today anyway with nobody "bugging" me. Expecting a real good spring, got some vacation days in the bank...................

Masskier · Mar 5, 2011

...winter storm warning in effect from 1 pm sunday to 1 pm est
monday...

The national weather service in burlington has issued a winter
storm warning...which is in effect from 1 pm sunday to 1 pm est
monday. The winter storm watch is no longer in effect.

* locations...central vermont into the northeast kingdom.

* hazard types...mixed precipitation changing to heavy snow.

* accumulations...snow accumulation of 6 to 12 inches...along with one
to two tenths of an inch of ice accumulation possible.

* timing...occasional rain sunday morning...changing to mixed precipitation
on sunday afternoon...then to all snow by sunday evening.

billski · Mar 5, 2011

Magog Fishy said:
Does anyone know (Billski?) if NWS calculates snow density -- I didn't see it anywhere on their Hourly Weatherly Graph.

For a good time, go here:

http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/

Yep, densities as well are snow temp are measured.

Go here and putz with the settings.
http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html
select physical element: snowpack density (forecasted for the period you selected) check skiing. zoom in.
Someone needs to explain to them the diff between XC and DH.

Don't forget to go out and ski!

forecasts are fun. http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/forecasts/
especially if you load them into google Earth.

buellski · Mar 5, 2011

deadheadskier said:
of course now the weather is great. I encountered a steady rain for ten minutes and said screw it.

Truthfully, I think for the first time in my life the cost of gas factored in my decision. My thought was, do I really want to blow through 6 gallons of gas at $3.40 a gallon to potentially ski in the rain.

Sunapee was GREAT today. :daffy:

Snow was great, no crowds, and there was no real rain all day. Had some light drizzle this morning, nothing significant, and it was over before lunch. Sun came out for a while this afternoon

billski · Mar 5, 2011

Glad you guys had a great time. Starting Sunday, it looks like No. VT (MRV northward) is going to be spared freezing rain. They should have all snow. Places South will also pickup snow, but it will be preceded by some NCP.

thetrailboss · Mar 5, 2011

Mount Ellen was great today. Nice, soft, spring snow and no NCP. Some snow at times, but mainly a cloudly spring like day. 6-16" in the forecast for now until Monday afternoon! :spin:

Warp Daddy · Mar 5, 2011

Rained all day here BUT we're under a warning tonite starting At 1am supposed to be 8-16 inches here in the St Lawrence Valley and Northern Dacks -- Bring IT !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:beer: :daffy:

Magog Fishy · Mar 5, 2011

billski said:
For a good time, go here:

Many thanks Billski! I knew there was a lot more stuff/data on NWS, but hadn't had time to play around with it. The interactive one -- http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html -- is cool for measuring forecasted snow density. The Google Earth Overlays are also cool -- I use Google Earth a lot, but had never had a chance to play around with the weather overlays.

The cold front is moving in earlier than originally forecasted for N VT. This storm could be a wet dud or a blockbuster for Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay – 16" could turn into 25"-30"; the QPF is there (1.5” to 2”); I think those three areas are probably the only New England options for this event – you run the risk in MRV of it being too wet; wind doesn’t look like it is going to be a major factor so Jay is in. I am going to make the call in the morning -- driving is going to be rough up there after noon tom. Unfortunately for me I have stuff to do at work that I rather not push off.

snoseek · Mar 5, 2011

Magog Fishy said:
Many thanks Billski! I knew there was a lot more stuff/data on NWS, but hadn't had time to play around with it. The interactive one -- http://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/interactive/html/map.html -- is cool for measuring forecasted snow density. The Google Earth Overlays are also cool -- I use Google Earth a lot, but had never had a chance to play around with the weather overlays.

The cold front is moving in earlier than originally forecasted for N VT. This storm could be a wet dud or a blockbuster for Stowe, Smuggs, and Jay – 16" could turn into 25"-30"; the QPF is there (1.5” to 2”); I think those three areas are probably the only New England options for this event – you run the risk in MRV of it being too wet; wind doesn’t look like it is going to be a major factor so Jay is in. I am going to make the call in the morning -- driving is going to be rough up there after noon tom. Unfortunately for me I have stuff to do at work that I rather not push off.

I've been watching this closely. It even is starting to look more favorable for the loaf. I'm jumping on this mon/tues! Jay looks good, winds look ok too for monday

UVSHTSTRM · Mar 5, 2011

snoseek said:
I've been watching this closely. It even is starting to look more favorable for the loaf. I'm jumping on this mon/tues! Jay looks good, winds look ok too for monday

It is looking more favorable for the northern resorts. I keep thinking this could be like those storms we see late in the year where all looks lost, but whaaaaaaabam, 2 feet of snow or more. Seems to happen at the loaf at least once a year late season.

snoseek · Mar 5, 2011

UVSHTSTRM said:
It is looking more favorable for the northern resorts. I keep thinking this could be like those storms we see late in the year where all looks lost, but whaaaaaaabam, 2 feet of snow or more. Seems to happen at the loaf at least once a year late season.

Yeah leaning towards the loaf now as I carry a pass there! Watching closely for the next 24

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