So how much rain Saturday?

abc · Apr 20, 2011

So I got Friday off and will be going to Killington. Sunday is also looking reasonably decent so I would like to squeeze out that one last day.

But what should I do about Saturday? How much rain are we expecting on Saturday?

Looking at the "chance" of precip, it's high. But what I can't figure out is if it's just all day long drizzlee, which would be easily a good day to be on the slope. Or will it be all day down pour, which will be miserable to ski through...

Or, I can throw the kayak on the roof and go ski some liquid snow! erh...I mean freezing cold white water.

deadheadskier · Apr 20, 2011

All I've got available this week is Saturday, which was going to be at K. It will take some serious fluffing to get me to go now. sucks

drjeff · Apr 21, 2011

The models are trying to suggest that a decent squall line will be rolling across New England from West to East starting sometime early/mid morning and the squall line exiting by early/mid afternoon. The models suggest that there should be some moderate to heavy rain with the squall line and even an isolated rumble of thunder isn't out of the question. After the squall line passes, then it looks to have an unsettled atmosphere in place for the rest of the day with some on/off drizzle and/or light rain quite likely. Not exactly the best of forcasts for Saturday.

Sunday, more than likely will be the "better" of the 2 days, but even then there's far a better chance of their being some on/off light drizzle than it being dry all day. It's looking like it will be Tuesday or Wednesday before the air mass drys out enough to realistically get atleast the chance of some precip out of the forcast

MommaBear · Apr 21, 2011

Thanks for the forecast Jeff! Totally psyched now that my husband was able to swap Friday for Saturday at work. Sunshine and 50's at Sugarbush for me tomorrow!! :daffy:

Riverskier · Apr 21, 2011

drjeff said:
The models are trying to suggest that a decent squall line will be rolling across New England from West to East starting sometime early/mid morning and the squall line exiting by early/mid afternoon. The models suggest that there should be some moderate to heavy rain with the squall line and even an isolated rumble of thunder isn't out of the question. After the squall line passes, then it looks to have an unsettled atmosphere in place for the rest of the day with some on/off drizzle and/or light rain quite likely. Not exactly the best of forcasts for Saturday.

Sunday, more than likely will be the "better" of the 2 days, but even then there's far a better chance of their being some on/off light drizzle than it being dry all day. It's looking like it will be Tuesday or Wednesday before the air mass drys out enough to realistically get atleast the chance of some precip out of the forcast

Do you do customized forecasts for Maine? :smile: I don't think the rain is supposed to move into Maine until early afternoon, so I am hoping to get in a few dry hours of skiing in the morning.

drjeff · Apr 21, 2011

Riverskier said:
Do you do customized forecasts for Maine? :smile: I don't think the rain is supposed to move into Maine until early afternoon, so I am hoping to get in a few dry hours of skiing in the morning.

That's about what it seems like will happen. But trying to time out what looks to be about a 50 or so mile wide squall line 48 hours out can be a bit tricky

But if the models hold out, Maine *should* be dry for the morning. But once the clouds from the West start moving in, if the front packs the energy that the models suggest, better to get off the hill a run early than get soaked a run later! :idea:

skime · Apr 21, 2011

abc said:
So I got Friday off and will be going to Killington. Sunday is also looking reasonably decent so I would like to squeeze out that one last day.

But what should I do about Saturday? How much rain are we expecting on Saturday?

Looking at the "chance" of precip, it's high. But what I can't figure out is if it's just all day long drizzlee, which would be easily a good day to be on the slope. Or will it be all day down pour, which will be miserable to ski through...

Or, I can throw the kayak on the roof and go ski some liquid snow! erh...I mean freezing cold white water.

this spring has been pathetic....one of the coldest & wet springs in K & everywhere else....with this weather & the mtn closed in May there wont be much of a spring skiing season....

100212-vancouver-rain-hmed-430a.standard.jpg

Riverskier · Apr 21, 2011

drjeff said:
That's about what it seems like will happen. But trying to time out what looks to be about a 50 or so mile wide squall line 48 hours out can be a bit tricky

But if the models hold out, Maine *should* be dry for the morning. But once the clouds from the West start moving in, if the front packs the energy that the models suggest, better to get off the hill a run early than get soaked a run later! :idea:

Thanks! Yeah, hoping for a couple dry hours. Even just until 10am and I would be happy, as I will be up there right at 8am when they open. Last weekend for Sunday River, so I can't miss it, and Sunday is out. Definitely hard to time 48 hours out though. Fingers crossed.

Black Phantom · Apr 21, 2011

skime said:
this spring has been pathetic....one of the coldest & wet springs in K & everywhere else....with this weather & the mtn closed in May there wont be much of a spring skiing season....

Where the hell were you during the dumps? :snow:

abc · Apr 21, 2011

drjeff said:
trying to time out what looks to be about a 50 or so mile wide squall line 48 hours out can be a bit tricky

How serious is the squall?

I'm not planning to ski Saturday. But some friends are talking about running a river near Lincoln. Being soak isn't a problem (we'll be wet regardless) but if it's a torrential downpour, it wouldn't be much fun.

drjeff · Apr 21, 2011

abc said:
How serious is the squall?

I'm not planning to ski Saturday. But some friends are talking about running a river near Lincoln. Being soak isn't a problem (we'll be wet regardless) but if it's a torrential downpour, it wouldn't be much fun.

48 hours out, who knows how strong or weak it will actually be. But many models are suggesting that a decent chunk of the weather front that has been lighting up the radar screens across the midwest the last few days will stay together as it crosses New England during the day on Saturday. It wouldn't suprise me at all if the radar images Saturday have that distinct narrow band of yellows and a bit of red thrown in every now and then associated with the front as it passes

abc · Apr 21, 2011

Thanks.

Keep us posted.

drjeff · Apr 21, 2011

abc said:
Thanks.

Keep us posted.

In reality, the best thing to do, is Saturday AM when you get up, flip on the weather channel and see how well defined the squall line is/isn't looking. That will give you a good idea as to how it's held up overnight (it will more than likely flare up a bit to the West during the heating of the day tomorrow) and also help you judge whether it will be arriving at say 10AM or 3PM or for your planning purposes.

Definately no a question of if it's going to rain on Saturday, just how intense it will be at the onset and what time of day that will be at.

abc · Apr 21, 2011

Let me see if I understand what I should be looking for:

I'm thinking, if I see a narrow band of red and yellow, it means it's going to be pretty heavy rain for a (short) period of time. But if it's a wide band of green and yellow, it means it'll be an all day mild to moderate rain.

Is my understanding of weather map correct?

drjeff · Apr 21, 2011

abc said:
Let me see if I understand what I should be looking for:

I'm thinking, if I see a narrow band of red and yellow, it means it's going to be pretty heavy rain for a (short) period of time. But if it's a wide band of green and yellow, it means it'll be an all day mild to moderate rain.

Is my understanding of weather map correct?

You got it. Tight band + bright colors = take cover

Wide band of blues and greens = long duration showers

What will more than likely happen on the backside of the squall line, is a wide area of blues (light rain) and in some areas with how moist + unsettled the atmosphere will be, there could very well be some light mist/drizzle, even if there isn't anything showing up on the radar screen

180 · Apr 23, 2011

Snowing nicely on the K access road right now.

abc · Apr 23, 2011

It's snowing in Lincoln,nh also.

Don't think I'll paddle today. Debating whether to head over to Wildcat. Dust on crust, Rain,...

deadheadskier · Apr 23, 2011

180 said:
Snowing nicely on the K access road right now.

you can thank me for that. I blew off today thinking it was gonna rain.

figures

So how much rain Saturday?

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