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Jay Peak bombshell

BenedictGomez

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Someone send that link to Alterra.

I predict Alterra is going to be the acquirer.

They already own Tremblant, so the tie-in there would be a stranglehold on the Quebecois market of roughly 3M people. An ancillary benefit is that it would also help pull vacationing Americans north to Tremblant.

It also works geographically with VT, as all they own in VT is Stratton, which is a much different demo than Jay.
 

TheArchitect

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I agree. From my POV, uneducated as it is in these things, it makes a lot of sense for Alterra. Personally I want it because I like the mountains on the Ikon pass and plan to continue to buy it. The only NE mountain I'd want added to it is Jay. If Alterra adds Jay then I might make the jump from the base pass to the full pass.
 

thetrailboss

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I predict Alterra is going to be the acquirer.

They already own Tremblant, so the tie-in there would be a stranglehold on the Quebecois market of roughly 3M people. An ancillary benefit is that it would also help pull vacationing Americans north to Tremblant.

It also works geographically with VT, as all they own in VT is Stratton, which is a much different demo than Jay.

Maybe, but do they have the capital to take it on? They just took on Solitude and from my observations and conversations things aren't going so well there. Not much snowmaking going on. Maybe it is a learning curve.
 

machski

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Maybe, but do they have the capital to take it on? They just took on Solitude and from my observations and conversations things aren't going so well there. Not much snowmaking going on. Maybe it is a learning curve.
Do they have the CapEx, I would say unequivocally yes. The question is how they choose to utilize it. Take as an example, Steamboat. They just did a huge upgrade/refurb of the Gondola and now this summer they are scrapping the whole thing and replacing it completely. So they obviously have the capital, just not sure buying another area is in the cards of using it.

Anyone buying Jay will have concerns with the lift system. It needs a lot of work and if you dig in, the snowmaking system needs a big upgrade too (especially if you err on the side of warmer winters). Lodging and extras are there already, but I feel a new owner would see the need for substantial CapEx after purchase. We will see how the chips fall.

The X factor could be for one of the big players to own the Snow Capital of the East.

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BenedictGomez

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Maybe, but do they have the capital to take it on? They just took on Solitude and from my observations and conversations things aren't going so well there. Not much snowmaking going on. Maybe it is a learning curve.

But real estate isnt like most purchases, you can only buy it when there's an opportunity to buy it, and that opportunity may never present itself again. So even if they were in a situation where they buy it, and had to keep it status quo for 3, 4, 7 years, I think that's enough. Most of the amenities are new, and the reality is Jay Peak is better isolated from snowmaking issues than most. The lift system at Jay Peak is pretty poor though, I agree with machski there. Spending millions to refurb that aging relic to the summit didnt help either, such a shame, that was the opportunity for beneficial change IMO, but obviously with their "situation" they had no choice but to fix it.
 

thetrailboss

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But real estate isnt like most purchases, you can only buy it when there's an opportunity to buy it, and that opportunity may never present itself again. So even if they were in a situation where they buy it, and had to keep it status quo for 3, 4, 7 years, I think that's enough. Most of the amenities are new, and the reality is Jay Peak is better isolated from snowmaking issues than most. The lift system at Jay Peak is pretty poor though, I agree with machski there. Spending millions to refurb that aging relic to the summit didnt help either, such a shame, that was the opportunity for beneficial change IMO, but obviously with their "situation" they had no choice but to fix it.

Interesting that it looks like Jay and Burke will be separated. Probably because Jay is more “complete” whereas Burke needs work to make it sustainable.


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ss20

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A minute from the Alta exit off the I-15!
Large demographic...established slopeside real estate/hotels/overpriced "extras" for guests to buy...sounds like a Vail Resort to me...

Vail is readying its self for crappy winters to hit any of its geographic areas. Was it two years ago when the East was skiing arguably better than most of the West??? Jay is probably the only place west coast skiers would bother visiting anyway if they had an Epic pass...I say Vail pulls the trigger.

As far as lifts go, replacing the 5,000ft Bonnie with a HSQ is chump change for Vail.
 

skitheeast45

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Maybe, but do they have the capital to take it on? They just took on Solitude and from my observations and conversations things aren't going so well there. Not much snowmaking going on. Maybe it is a learning curve.

Alterra has plenty of capital as the owners have deep pockets. Vail had a bad financial report about one month ago and I think they would prefer to spend their dollars integrating Stevens/Triple Peak with new lifts, lodges, etc. Alterra already has a strong foot in the Quebec market with Tremblant, and they know the mountain has been more crowded this season with the Ikon Pass (I was there last week and can verify the lines were historically long and management blamed Ikon). Giving an alternative option in Jay would be beneficial. Additionally, they only own one NE mountain (Stratton) while Vail owns three (Stowe, Okemo, Sunapee). Alterra knows they could use another couple mountains, so I think they are the ultimate buyers.
 

thetrailboss

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Alterra has plenty of capital as the owners have deep pockets. Vail had a bad financial report about one month ago and I think they would prefer to spend their dollars integrating Stevens/Triple Peak with new lifts, lodges, etc. Alterra already has a strong foot in the Quebec market with Tremblant, and they know the mountain has been more crowded this season with the Ikon Pass (I was there last week and can verify the lines were historically long and management blamed Ikon). Giving an alternative option in Jay would be beneficial. Additionally, they only own one NE mountain (Stratton) while Vail owns three (Stowe, Okemo, Sunapee). Alterra knows they could use another couple mountains, so I think they are the ultimate buyers.

Just read this: https://unofficialnetworks.com/2019...wntXXE0pAt9sdhZfLoowkNUm10KBLtyKLYS2ZcG2nxSPU

Take it with a grain of salt.

They too point out that Vail had a rough year. Seems Alterra would be more likely.

Nobody seems to mention Boyne as a potential contender. Although it would suck traffic away from Sugarloaf I would think.
 

NYDB

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I though the idea last year was to package them (Jay and Burke) together so that Burke would be sold. Otherwise, who would be a willing buyer for Burke as a stand alone Mtn?

Is it producing a profit? or has it in the last 5 years?

Does the Mountain Academy have enough $ to buy it?
 

thetrailboss

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I though the idea last year was to package them (Jay and Burke) together so that Burke would be sold. Otherwise, who would be a willing buyer for Burke as a stand alone Mtn?

Is it producing a profit? or has it in the last 5 years?

Does the Mountain Academy have enough $ to buy it?

The reason for separating them is that Burke is still not "there" yet as to the EB-5 obligations in order to get the investors ther green cards, pay them back, and make the resort free and clear of the whole EB-5 issue.

As to profit, it is a private entity, so we do not know for sure. It is widely accepted that they have not made a profit in the last few years. Q has owned it the last five years and I think that there has not been any profit during that time. Q scared away a lot of business.

And does BMA have the money? They, as in BMA proper, does not. But those affiliated with BMA have a lot of $$$$. As to would "BMA buy it", we can go back to the future...or go back to 2000 when they did. But with that huge hotel it is much less likely that would work or be viable.

Obviously the receiver is leaning on BMA to help him find a deep pocket to take it all over.
 

VTKilarney

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An article in today's newspaper said that Jay Peak has to sell for $250 million in order for the investors to be made whole.
 

thetrailboss

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An article in today's newspaper said that Jay Peak has to sell for $250 million in order for the investors to be made whole.

Wow, just wow. To put this in perspective, Vail bought Okemo, the Sunapee lease, AND Crested Butte for $82 million to Triple Peaks, and $155 million to the REIT land owners (total of $237 million for THREE resorts).

https://vtdigger.org/2018/06/04/vail-resorts-buys-okemo-82-million-deal/

Vail bought Stowe's mountain operations for $50 million.
 

VTKilarney

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Apparently the Burlington Free Press originated the story. Here is a quote from the local newspaper:
"The Burlington Free Press reports appointed receiver Michael Goldberg would need a sale price of $250 million to recoup funds for the investors."

This should be a sobering wake-up call to the people that excused Quiros and Stenger because things got built. This is a very high probability that there are going to be some real victims here.

I misspoke earlier. The article in the local newspaper ran yesterday, not today.
 
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