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NWS 2016 / 2017 Winter forecast!

yeggous

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First, thank you for spending the time on generating these links to the article. I read the Dyer et al paper on Spatial Variability and Trends... , the other paper, Onset of Spring starting earlier across the NH by Schwartz et al was paywalled so I just read the abstract. As for the latter, using the biological markers for spring detection is well known however spring is just one end of the snow season, what about the start? As for the former paper, the SCE was based on surface measurements so the sampling from these stations can result in questionable findings.

The Rutgers snow lab published fall, winter and spring snow SCE plots from 1967 to present, the link to these graphs are shown below. The plots do show SCE decreasing in spring while it has been increasing in both fall and winter.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/snowcover/chart_seasonal.php?ui_set=nhland&ui_season=1


The paper below uses the satellite data and shows the seasons are shifting as the plots above have shown. The paper concludes a net neutral effect. Of intetrest to me is what is causing this shift.

http://climate.rutgers.edu/stateclim_v1/robinson_pubs/refereed/Choi_Robinson_and_Kang_2010.pdf

Autumn changes are less clear. Evidence suggests the trend probably depends on the latitude, with warming and delayed autumn being greater at high latitudes:
doi:10.1111/j.1466-8238.2011.00675.x
But autumn in general shows high variability which masks the signal.

That paper by Choi et al. is consistent to other published work. They note a decrease in the length of "full snow season" but see no such trend in "core snow season". I've seen other work that agrees that the core of winter hasn't changed much yet but the tail seasons are a different story.

As for the cause of all this... getting at any definable cause in the highly coupled climate system is nearly impossible. Arctic sea surface temperatures / lack of sea ice is a obvious and tantalizing suspect.
doi:10.1038/nature09051
Of course as already discussed, the reduced sea ice is could also be playing a role in stabilizing our winter temperatures but weakening the polar vortex.
 

4aprice

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slatham

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Seems this year is the battle of the models vs. the analogs. Recent model runs warm (NNME, Euro, etc) but analogs cold. Pastelok and Bastardi staying the course, but looking at the models gives one pause (or at least nausea).

Oh, and next weeks storm on the 12Z GFS just went poof.......
 

mriceyman

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cnj
Seems this year is the battle of the models vs. the analogs. Recent model runs warm (NNME, Euro, etc) but analogs cold. Pastelok and Bastardi staying the course, but looking at the models gives one pause (or at least nausea).

Oh, and next weeks storm on the 12Z GFS just went poof.......

Youll see alot of nervous forecasters if the cold keeps getting pushed back. I really hope our december is cold


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dlague

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CS, Colorado
Well this could make things firm or soft for FIS if this happens according to accuweather!

forecastKillington.png
 

prsboogie

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It's funny I just looked at that exact forecast!


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jack97

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Seems this year is the battle of the models vs. the analogs. Recent model runs warm (NNME, Euro, etc) but analogs cold. Pastelok and Bastardi staying the course, but looking at the models gives one pause (or at least nausea).

Oh, and next weeks storm on the 12Z GFS just went poof.......

Bastardi has been trashing the GFS for the past months, one of pet peeve is the models tele connections to various indices, his opinion is its in contradiction. Speaking of which, along with the analogs, Bastardi has factored the work from Cohen, the AO index and the fall snowpack. It appears Accuweather long range forecaster Sosnowski is on board with the mid Nov cold spell. Hearing this w/e cold shot is a short term event.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weath...-turn-stormy-colder-snowy-eastern-us/61313612
 

yeggous

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Two chances for snow next week. Both the GFS and Euro have "something" this weekend. Turkey Day could also be interesting.

Yes the promised late November pattern change is materializing in the models


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Jully

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When was the last time we had snow on Thanksgiving? It could be like... two years ago, but I think it has been awhile.
 

yeggous

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When was the last time we had snow on Thanksgiving? It could be like... two years ago, but I think it has been awhile.

You mean on the ground in the mountains? Or actively falling from the sky in the flatlands?


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