2/15-2/18. A New Hope or We are Screwed.

[Tin]

Big shift east on the 12z GFS.

Low over Long Island and ends up in southern Maine

Versus earlier. Low comes across Pennsylvania and up into VT.

Newest snow map...

 

[WJenness]

Everybody face east and exhale as hard as possible... on 3...

1...


2....



3!!!

 

[from_the_NEK]

Jay Peak-Stowe and Daks get the goods in the current scenario. Everything South and East can break out the boats.

 

[Tin]

In the NAM we trust.

 

[skibumski]

Really weird run by the GFS. Even the winner areas look to have some occasional wet stuff mixed in. NH/Maine look screwed. ADK getting freshies. Everywhere else still too close to call.

 

[Tin]

Canadian comes way east as well. Going to be a fun few days.

 

[Rowsdower]

Dacks or southern VT next week?

Will this be enough get Gore and WF riding well? I know they've been having a really hard time this year.

 

[BenedictGomez]

12z GFS brings pain and despair to the Poconos and Catskills

 

[BenedictGomez]

Dacks or southern VT next week?

Will this be enough get Gore and WF riding well? I know they've been having a really hard time this year.

Too early to make those judgements, but at this point, ADK is in the best position to avoid the firing squad. Canadian is running right now, it looks somewhat east of 00z for sure, which helps western areas, but my guess (since it's still running) is that will bring the pain-train into Maine.

 

[mriceyman]

Just cant buy a good track for the NE this year


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[Tin]

Canadian

 

[skibumski]

Wow that's significantly east with almost no white precipitation on the Canadian, but also basically no rain in ski country.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Wow that's significantly east with almost no white precipitation on the Canadian, but also basically no rain in ski country.

The Canadian goes well east so that everyone misses most of the snow and most of the rain. Some ice issues though.

 

[BenedictGomez]

Net/net the models have no idea what's going on.

For an example of this, here are the same time panels from the 06z GFS and the 12z GFS.

These are ridiculously different.

 

[Tin]

Wow that's significantly east with almost no white precipitation on the Canadian, but also basically no rain in ski country.

Skeptical. Such a sudden and BIG east shift. See what Euro says. Im anxiously awaiting the 84 hours out point. As Catsup and I discussed this morning, mesos for track, globals for liquid.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Really marginal set up for this one. That is one potent trough rounding the bend but two factors are against locking this one in as a complete New England snowbomb which tracks over the Cape Cod Canal. The first is the +NAO, that is a killer. Nothing is locking the track in and as a result, this thin wants to cut west up the backside of the trough. The second is the PV departing quickly. 12z GFS shows the polar vortex departing slower, blocking the SLP's path and shunting it east. If the PV moves out faster than currently modeled, the low cuts through NY as shown at 6z. On the flipside, this could continue to trend east if the PV moves slower.

Very intersting setup. One thing is for sure, I will be crushed... crushed! if we rain. Screw this goddamn season if we rain. F**K!!

 

[BenedictGomez]

Euro's bad again. Not budging from western solution.

 

[Warp Daddy]

Titus is in the sweet spot 17.5 inches

 

[BenedictGomez]

 

[Tin]

Trend and EURO is a POS this year. Throw it out for now. Remember the EURO's plans for Hurricane Joaquin? The only time it was decent this year was 7-8 period prior to the DC/Baltimore blizzard, even then both the CMC and GFS also had it.