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3/6-3/7 storm?

BenedictGomez

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any hope?

For where?

Right now, every model has it hitting NC and VA and going out to sea. MAYBE a bit of snow gets to South Jersey.

But there's a lot of time left and the energy hasnt even made landfall yet, so I imagine some big changes could still occur and it could come north. But could the models all be so wrong that it turns into a New England blizzard? Highly doubtful, but we can hope. I'd be happy if it came north enough to put 7 or 8 inches in northern New Jersey, but even that looks pretty doubtful at this point. :(
 

gmcunni

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read this earlier today.
the 00z run last night took a huge shift north.

i really don't know much about the weather tech stuff but when i read something I like i just choose to believe it.
 

gladerider

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For where?

Right now, every model has it hitting NC and VA and going out to sea. MAYBE a bit of snow gets to South Jersey.

But there's a lot of time left and the energy hasnt even made landfall yet, so I imagine some big changes could still occur and it could come north. But could the models all be so wrong that it turns into a New England blizzard? Highly doubtful, but we can hope. I'd be happy if it came north enough to put 7 or 8 inches in northern New Jersey, but even that looks pretty doubtful at this point. :(

anywhere i can go ride my board :snow:
 

JimG.

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Amazingly, I will be at Jay Peak those dates (skiing next wed-fri).

Come on snow!
 

BenedictGomez

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i really don't know much about the weather tech stuff but when i read something I like i just choose to believe it.

It did come north, but it's still a southern storm.

The 00z GFS just came out and came a bit north again, but the jackpot zone is now slated to be northern VA instead of southern VA.

Will be interesting to see if the 00z Euro is a bit further north of the GFS since its been leading the way lately, but given the model consistency it would take a simply massive jump to get the bullseye area to any ski resorts now, except possibly the Poconos (and the Poconos ALWAYS get screwed, so we know that aint happening!).
 

St. Bear

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It did come north, but it's still a southern storm.

The 00z GFS just came out and came a bit north again, but the jackpot zone is now slated to be northern VA instead of southern VA.

Will be interesting to see if the 00z Euro is a bit further north of the GFS since its been leading the way lately, but given the model consistency it would take a simply massive jump to get the bullseye area to any ski resorts now, except possibly the Poconos (and the Poconos ALWAYS get screwed, so we know that aint happening!).

Its all about the trend. If its this far out and the trend is north, then there's a chance.
 

BenedictGomez

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Its all about the trend. If its this far out and the trend is north, then there's a chance.

For us in NJ? Maybe. But this storm is really not that far out anymore, it would take all the models being about as wrong as humanly possible for this to be a ski country storm now. Granted the models have been trash most of last winter and this winter, but I think it would really be pushing it for them to be this wrong only a few days out.

I think you have to pin your hopes on the block to the north not being as strong as all the models think, or not being in the exact place it's currently in. If that somehow goes away, then the storm could come up.
 

St. Bear

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For us in NJ? Maybe. But this storm is really not that far out anymore, it would take all the models being about as wrong as humanly possible for this to be a ski country storm now. Granted the models have been trash most of last winter and this winter, but I think it would really be pushing it for them to be this wrong only a few days out.

I think you have to pin your hopes on the block to the north not being as strong as all the models think, or not being in the exact place it's currently in. If that somehow goes away, then the storm could come up.

You're right. I'm just talking about the Poconos and maybe Catskills.

FWIW, Henry Magurity from Accuweather put up a map with the possibility of a foot for most of eastern PA and western NJ.
 

BenedictGomez

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FWIW, Henry Magurity from Accuweather put up a map with the possibility of a foot for most of eastern PA and western NJ.

Is there any commentary along with the map? There's really nothing to support that in any of the models, so I'd like to know his reasoning. That's one of the best ways to learn, IMO, is to listen to two experts with differing opinions, and then try to understand why they're so different.
 

St. Bear

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mriceyman

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You're right. I'm just talking about the Poconos and maybe Catskills.

FWIW, Henry Magurity from Accuweather put up a map with the possibility of a foot for most of eastern PA and western NJ.

Honestly henry is an awful forecaster. He Wants big storms to happen so bad that he screws up forecasts bigtime. Not saying it cant happen but i watch his vids for comic relief.


Sent from my iPhone
 

ScottySkis

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Please please snowy somewhere like great Gore today snowy awesome conditions, hopefully everyone else out enjoying today.:):):):beer::beer:;);):cool::cool::cool::cool::):):):):):):):)
 

BenedictGomez

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Honestly henry is an awful forecaster. He Wants big storms to happen so bad that he screws up forecasts bigtime.

There is absolutely no date to support the "possible snow" he has in northern NJ, NYC, and Boston.

It's not that he's, "an awful forecaster", it's that these "forecasts" are done to generate website traffic. Pay attention, and what you'll notice is for EVERY big storm Accuweather includes ALL the big cities in the "possible impact" area regardless of what the models say.

This is a PERFECT example. The Canuck, the GFS, the Euro, the UK, not a single one of them has ANY snow above southern New Jersey, and yet somehow he magically puts odds of storm impact in NYC, n.NJ, and Boston, where millions of people (and web hits) live.

So why it's possible a big shift could happen and that snow could get to Boston, what he's doing is fraudulent, pure and simple.
 

BenedictGomez

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12z GFS shifted maybe 40 miles north and with a bigger pcp area. Baby steps to central NJ snow! lol.
 
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