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Another winter perdiction

Nick

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What are the areas with nothing? Average snowfall expected?

 
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It's way to early to believe in any of this, especially anything from AccWeather. But I do like the hype!
 

BenedictGomez

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I'm guessing the first map might be Accuweather doing its' typical thing where they generally dont give a rat's azz about you unless you live in a major city.
 

fbrissette

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As much as I'd like to believe this, the truth is that long-range weather forecasts are worth nothing in the north east. No matter what they tell you about El Nino or La Nina, the correlation between these events and weather in the North-East does NOT exist (no statistically significant correlation). A significant correlation does exist out west (especially along the coast) but not out east. My climate modeler friends at Environment Canada are trying very hard, but they will be the first to tell you that the skill of long-term forecasts at 4 months is '0' for the north-east.

Francois
 

jaja111

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http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?98551-2011-2012-Winter-expected-to-have-Extreme-Weather Ah, didn't happen.

http://thesiweather.com/2011-2012-winter-outlook/ Wasn't even close

http://forums.alpinezone.com/showthread.php?102258-2011-12-Winter-Highlights-Accuweather Pure incompetence to drive advertising

It always seems that 6-8 months is just enough for some to forget the failure of these longer term predictions to accurately predict anything other than it may be colder in January compared to now, and that it will be likely to snow if the temp is below freezing and precipitation can be seen 12 hours away on the radar. Meteorology has a long long way to go.

Winter predictions, or any weather predictions for that matter, more than 100 hours out are pure infotainment.
 

St. Bear

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Winter predictions, or any weather predictions for that matter, more than 100 hours out are pure infotainment.

Nothing wrong with that. Many of us have gone 4-5 months without skiing, and still have a few more to go. Nothing wrong with a little late summer optimism.
 

fbrissette

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Meteorology has a long long way to go.

Winter predictions, or any weather predictions for that matter, more than 100 hours out are pure infotainment.

Weather forecast has roughly gone in 20 years from a 50% forecast success at 48 hours to a 50% success at 120 hours (5 days). In other words, on average, the 5 day weather forecast is pretty much a toss of the dice. Nowadays, the 48-hour weather forecast is quite good, thanks to faster supercomputers and additional weather data (especially satellites data). Long range forecasts (3 months and up) do have skills (meaning that they are better than a random sampling of the climate past) in several parts of the world, especially where the climate is strongly influenced by the ocean. In these cases, indices such as as sea temperature anomalies provide useful information. Such is not the case for the north-east and we likely won't see any useful long-range forecast in our lifetime.

In winter, pay attention to the 48-hour forecast and then, as mentioned above, the radar is your best friend (that and good winter tires).

Francois
 

Smellytele

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I don't like this prediction. It says that I will spend a lot of time shovelling snow around Boston but the northern New England mountains will get nothing. Not cool! It should be the other way around!

Actually it will have average snowfall for the mountains but above average for southern NE as far as that map shows.
 

x10003q

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I am the person responsible for this season's weather. The winter hinges on my decision to get snow tires and rims for my car. If I get snow tires we will not see any snow. If I do not get snow tires I am sure there will be record snows.:spin:
 

HowieT2

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whatever-just another reason to dream about snow. I'm good with that.

fwiw-forecasted to get into the 40's in the northern greens saturday night. big fire by the campsite and spending the day hiking to recon some tree runs.
 

jaja111

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I am the person responsible for this season's weather. The winter hinges on my decision to get snow tires and rims for my car. If I get snow tires we will not see any snow. If I do not get snow tires I am sure there will be record snows.:spin:

Being that this is the more accurate assessment this far out, based on the Murphy's law approach, I'll say that New England and the Northeast in general will get HAMMERED this winter. Why? It's because I'm moving to the Pacific Northwest, which I'll now predict gets a snow drought. The prognostication offered by the inaccuweather map clearly shows their favor to this regarding the Northwest. That may be alright as I'll be too broke from the move anyhow for more than 10-15 days out for the first season, even less if a job takes awhile to find.
 
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