Gas Prices

[Sky]

Not that I'm upset that prices are dropping, but ths cynical side of me wants to know if some vast reserve was just discovered (I know about the news from the Gulf of Mexico) causing prices to plummet.

I mean.....it COULDN'T be just that it's after Labor Day! *smirk*

Next it will be the "surprise arrival of the heating season" to drive home heating oil prices sky high. *sheesh*

On the "upside" (and there are many)...those earlier threads about the cost of driving to the slopes have sort of lost their emphasis.

 

[dmc]

Next it will be the "surprise arrival of the heating season" to drive home heating oil prices sky high. *sheesh*

I pre-bought heating oil a month or so ago... It cheaper now... But I can't buy now... The pre-buy period is over for winter...

 

[ctenidae]

I think gas prices are dropping because therre haven't been any new events to keep the fear premium up. Traders aren't bidding up the price of futures and oil companies are faced with increasing pressure to reduce prices. Without an event to point to for uncertainty, they're having a hard time justifying higher prices.

While I don't mind paying less to fill up my car, and I certainly appreciate the reduced inflationary pressure, I'm kind of upset that prices are coming down. For one thing, I believe we need to stop being a petroleum economy, and the only way that happens is if there's an economic incentive to do so. $5 gas would do it, and quickly. The other is that if inflationary pressures are reduced, there's less incentive for the Fed to raise interest rates some more. I'd like to see two more hikes through next spring to drive home prices down a little further so I can get a reasonable deal next fall. Not good for current home owners, but I'm not one.

Even without high gas prices, I think the Fed's going to have to raise rates some more- labor costs are going up, productivity is flattish in comparison, unemployment is dropping, and growth is still strong. Throw in housing being down (and that pool of capital drying up) and business spending being up, and you ahve a weird mix of factors that will probably make the Fed want to have some extra leeway to play around. Another 50 bips gives them the ability to cut if needed, and still ahve room to hike if it's called for.

This economic forecast brought to you free of charge (and free of any underlying quantitative analysis) by the analysts at Ctenidae Inc, Ensuring randomness in your every day.

 

[andyzee]

I mean.....it COULDN'T be just that it's after Labor Day! *smirk*

Yes it can, happens every year. Don't stations change the gas they use during the summer to a different typ? Also, people driving more in the summer. Oh, $2.47 for regular by my house today.

 

[wintersyndrome]

The lack of a tropical season as intense as predicted and as costly as last years tropical season has energy prices falling too. So far no major storms have impacted the Gulf of Mexico to the scale of last year and if September ends and we get out relatively scott-free then we might be able to watch the prices fall even more...but the price drop was too cyclical to be it all about chance as I'm sure the Labor Day arrival helped---hopefully all the reaming us consumers took at the pump this summer will actually go to updating refineries, and exploration (to further decrease oil costs) instead of some oil glutton's retirement package

 

[ctenidae]

hopefully all the reaming us consumers took at the pump this summer will actually go to updating refineries

Ladies and gentleman, what we have here is a textbook example of what I like to call "wishful thinking."

 

[dmc]

Oh, $2.47 for regular by my house today.

Sweet, sweet Jersey gas.... Sooooo cheap...
I filled up in NJ yesterday... Wierd having someone pump your gass for you...

 

[ski_resort_observer]

I think it's a combination of post peak driving season, reduced fear factor regarding supply and the recent discovery of a new oil resource in the Gulf.

I don't think the Fed will raise rates because that will make them look like taking a pause the last meeting was a mistake plus the Core inflation numbers are down.

 

[andyzee]

Sweet, sweet Jersey gas.... Sooooo cheap...
I filled up in NJ yesterday... Wierd having someone pump your gass for you...

No self service in NJ and gas prices are traditionally the cheapest in the north east. Funny how that works :-o

 

[roark]

No self service in NJ and gas prices are traditionally the cheapest in the north east. Funny how that works :-o

According to this site(http://www.gaspricewatch.com/usgastaxes.asp) there is a 17.4 cent difference in tax - plus there is some fine print for local taxes in NY as well.

 

[ctenidae]

I don't think the Fed will raise rates because that will make them look like taking a pause the last meeting was a mistake plus the Core inflation numbers are down.

I don't think they'll raise on the next meeting, but I think they will after that. Bond yields are sort of pointing towards that, depending on which way you turn the paper (1/2 of economists think they'll raise, 1/2 think they won't. Go figure).

I have a little less confidence in the Core numbers than I used to (which wasn't much to begin with) since Bennie's been fiddling with the measure. Consistency is questionable, as are accuracy and relevancy. The main problem is that high energy costs have only just started to show up in the numbers- companies haven't been passing those costs on much until now. I think the lag will catch up through the end of the year, and the Fed will have to act.

 

[Grassi21]

Our new house has electric heat...... but the heating system is supplemented with two gas stoves and one wood burning stove. The electric heat can be controlled for each room and we plan on having fires going all winter. The people we bought this house from are planning on having electric heat installed in their new place. But I am more of a wood fire guy. We plan on converting one of the gas stoves into an additional wood burning stove.

 

[Birdman829]

This is dangerously close to a politics discussion so I'll bring it all the way. It couldn't be because election season is coming up and the Republicans don't want to lose all of their seats could it?

 

[JimG.]

This is dangerously close to a politics discussion so I'll bring it all the way. It couldn't be because election season is coming up and the Republicans don't want to lose all of their seats could it?

This is ground we don't want to tread on...but I also believe in giving everyone their own piece of rope to play with.

Please let's not hang ourselves and force a mod to lock the topic.

 

[andyzee]

This is dangerously close to a politics discussion so I'll bring it all the way. It couldn't be because election season is coming up and the Republicans don't want to lose all of their seats could it?

Doubt it, keep in mind that prices are still nowhere as low as they were a year or two ago. They'd have to do a lot better than this.

 

[ctenidae]

This is dangerously close to a politics discussion so I'll bring it all the way. It couldn't be because election season is coming up and the Republicans don't want to lose all of their seats could it?

Naw, I don' t think the GOP (or the Dems, for that matter) have the clout to reduce prices. They can both help increase prices, but cutting them is a whole other ball of wax.

/see how I brought that back from partisanality?

 

[FRITOLAYGUY]

The cheapest gas ive seen in Southern Ct is 2.67.. I also filled up in Jersey last week 2.52.. It is weird having someone pump it , i believe Oregon is the only other state with that law..

 

[ctenidae]

I was in Houston last week- 2.39. I was trying to figure out how to get a few gallons back here.

 

[bvibert]

I was in Houston last week- 2.39. I was trying to figure out how to get a few gallons back here.

Fill up a couple of milk jugs and carry them on the plane with you. They're pretty easy going with stuff like that...

 

[FRITOLAYGUY]

Im not quite sure where Oskaloosa Iowa is but with multiple stations at 2.05 i believe thats the cheapest in the Country.. There are alot of places in Jersey now below 2.25.. Williamstown, Bridgeton, Vineland to name a few.