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Is Jay Peak Resort Over-inflating Snowfall Totals???

morrisk9

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Different type of question here. Have not yet been to Jay Peak to ski, but thinking of going later this March. But I have reservations about going...

Over the past several weeks, I've been tracking the snowfall totals over Jay, Smuggler's Notch and Stowe. I have a better than average understanding of "typical" snowfall in this area. With that in mind, Jay claims they have received 344 inches of snowfall this season to date. Yet only 28 miles to the south, both Smuggs and Stowe have received 241" and 258", respectively. Given the close distance between these resorts and well as similar mountain elevations, the average temperature difference must be 1*F at most...so that can't explain this huge 100" difference. All 3 resorts receive about the same wind speeds, so that also can't be a big difference either. I also find it odd that both Jay and Smuggs have almost exactly the same current snowbase depths, yet Jay has received over 100" more in snowfall to date (Stowe has a deeper base than Jay, with 86" less snowfall???). Shouldn't Jay's base be much deeper by now, given the copious amounts of snowfall they claim to have received??? Lastly, percentage-wise, Jay makes more snow than either of these two resorts.

Here is a quote from ZRankings.com website: "Ski area snowfall figures are occasionally white lies—marketing directors blow smoke with anecdotal information and inflated figures. More often legitimate data is collected from a choice snowfall area and marketed as representative of the entire mountain." If you go to Jay's website, their "snow reports" are very often sugarcoated and not very straightforward.

Can anyone provide assistance to help me figure this out?...Or am I correct??? Don't want to show up at this resort, tricked into thinking it was phenomenal, when it was average at best. Thanks!
 

gregnye

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Nonsense. Nothing fishy has ever happened at Jay Peak... oh wait :lol:
 

benski

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Jay peek probably gets the most snow put I doubt it close to 100 inches more. Also Sugarbush somehow is 257" meanwhile Mad River has 124-197.
 

bdfreetuna

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Snowfall totals are marketing. It's our responsibility as skiers to pay attention to snowfall, snow depth, snow conditions and other relevant variables. There is very little reason to be surprised by unexpected snow conditions in the age of information.
 

dlague

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Well, I am not saying that 344 is accurate, but many of the systems that came in wet or heavy south of Jay Peak or Northern NH might have come in drier and resulted in more depth Plus, They got some good snow storms prior to being open that were followed by warm periods for little to no net gain. Marketing will not tell you that.
 

dlague

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Well, I am not saying that 344 is accurate, but many of the systems that came in wet or heavy south of Jay Peak or Northern NH might have come in drier and resulted in more depth Plus, They got some good snow storms prior to being open that were followed by warm periods for little to no net gain. Marketing will not tell you that.

you really have to pay attention to base depth and individual snow events. What fell a month ago is compacted.
 

chuckstah

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Different type of question here. Have not yet been to Jay Peak to ski, but thinking of going later this March. But I have reservations about going...

Over the past several weeks, I've been tracking the snowfall totals over Jay, Smuggler's Notch and Stowe. I have a better than average understanding of "typical" snowfall in this area. With that in mind, Jay claims they have received 344 inches of snowfall this season to date. Yet only 28 miles to the south, both Smuggs and Stowe have received 241" and 258", respectively. Given the close distance between these resorts and well as similar mountain elevations, the average temperature difference must be 1*F at most...so that can't explain this huge 100" difference. All 3 resorts receive about the same wind speeds, so that also can't be a big difference either. I also find it odd that both Jay and Smuggs have almost exactly the same current snowbase depths, yet Jay has received over 100" more in snowfall to date (Stowe has a deeper base than Jay, with 86" less snowfall???). Shouldn't Jay's base be much deeper by now, given the copious amounts of snowfall they claim to have received??? Lastly, percentage-wise, Jay makes more snow than either of these two resorts.

Here is a quote from ZRankings.com website: "Ski area snowfall figures are occasionally white lies—marketing directors blow smoke with anecdotal information and inflated figures. More often legitimate data is collected from a choice snowfall area and marketed as representative of the entire mountain." If you go to Jay's website, their "snow reports" are very often sugarcoated and not very straightforward.

Can anyone provide assistance to help me figure this out?...Or am I correct??? Don't want to show up at this resort, tricked into thinking it was phenomenal, when it was average at best. Thanks!
Yes. They over inflate. But with that being said, they get a shitload of snow. Maine is deeper right now if that's an option.

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jaime

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It is very well known that Jay gets more snow than Smuggs and Stowe. Ask any meteorologist in the region and they will agree. One reason is oregraphic lift. (The shape of the mountain causes moisture to drop). Also, Jay is the only mountain in Vermont that is north of the Adirondacks. Storms that come from the west/northwest drop a lot of snow on the 'Dacks and then less on VT mountains. Not the case at Jay. This means a lot of lake effect snow hits Jay. It's the "Jay Cloud". And it exists. Ask any local.
 

j law

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You lost your argument when your second sentence stated "I've never been there..."

I've been several times where the snow report says 8 inches and you find that it's really like 10-12 in most places.

And 30 miles is a big deal... I grew up 20 miles south of Buffalo, NY and we got 60-80 inches more than the city every year.

Jay is different, period!


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bdfreetuna

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They have had significantly more base than Stowe/Smuggs/Bolton for the entire season. Even though the other places are doing well now too.
 

cdskier

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And 30 miles is a big deal... I grew up 20 miles south of Buffalo, NY and we got 60-80 inches more than the city every year.

To use another VT example...Sugarbush and Killington are only 40 miles apart, but last season K had 81" of snow total while Sugarbush had 156". That's almost double...

One of my friends was at Jay a couple weeks ago and said it was incredible. I wouldn't worry too much about the exact numbers, just know they have lots of snow. I also never gave much thought to base depth numbers reported by ski areas. Where are they measuring? Are all resorts measuring the same way? They might be good general guidelines, but to use them as exact numbers to compare from one resort to another is kind of pointless. Plus all the resorts just give a pretty wide range anyway.
 

eatskisleep

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The Jay Cloud.

Been there on days where there isn't even a dusting a few miles away, get to Jay and a mystery storm with 6" and snow all day.

Enough said.
 

morrisk9

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Quick update...

I was a meteorology major in college at SUNY Oswego, NY - basically the lake effect capital of the US. Oswego would typically get nearly 100 inches more snowfall per season than Fulton, NY, located about 20 miles inland from Oswego. But there was a MAJOR reason for that. Oswego is directly on Lake Ontario - the deepest/warmest of all the Great Lakes. So Oswego would get the lion's share of the lake effect. If there was such a huge difference between Oswego and Fulton - only 20 miles apart - then how can Jay Peak get lake effect snow when it is over 200 miles from Lake Ontario? It doesn't, because the Adirondacks would get this lake effect first because this mountain range is located directly in the middle between Jay and Lake Ontario. The ONLY great lake where the Ads are not blocking Jay is Superior...and that is located some 600-700 miles to the WNW. There is no lake effect that far away.

I think many are missing the point...I find it odd that both Jay and Smuggs have almost exactly the same current snowbase depths, yet Jay has received over 100" more in snowfall to date (and Stowe has a deeper base than Jay, with 86" less snowfall???). Shouldn't Jay's base be much deeper by now, given the copious amounts of snowfall they claim to have received - and because 300 of their 385 acres are fed by snowmaking??? Sounds like over-inflated snowfall totals to me.
 

bdfreetuna

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Regardless of what the snow base numbers say, Jay has way more base than Smugglers for most of the season. Smuggs was showing bare ground in late January after the thaw, Jay wasn't even close.
 

deadheadskier

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Who knows what the honest numbers are. Having lived in Stowe for several years, but also skied Jay a few times a year while up there, I'd put the difference between the two at about 20% in Jays favor. If Stowe has a 300" season then Jay probably gets about 360" that same season.

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morrisk9

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Who knows what the honest numbers are. Having lived in Stowe for several years, but also skied Jay a few times a year while up there, I'd put the difference between the two at about 20% in Jays favor. If Stowe has a 300" season then Jay probably gets about 360" that same season.

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This is the best response so far, from someone with plenty of ski experience in the area. I would agree that about a 20% gratuity for Jay over Smuggs/Stowe seems reasonable. But as of today, its more like 40%...that seems very unreasonable. So over-inflated snowfall totals seems likely???
 
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