It's Official, We Are In A Recession.

[andyzee]

Headlines for today:

Reuters
Recession started in December 2007: panel
Monday December 1, 4:28 pm ET


My question, who are the experts that determine this and how can I get their job. Damn, I could have told them this in January. :roll:

 

[ctenidae]

Retroactive panicking is now authorized.
Everyone to your shelters.

 

[Moe Ghoul]

Swell. Since the typical recession last 12-18 months, everything will be honky dory by next June. Must be an effort to encourage folks to pile back into equities, lol. LOAD UP!!!!!!! Meanwhile,

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27989275/

 

[riverc0il]

I love how the stock markets plunged due to news WE ALREADY HAVE KNOWN FOR A WHILE ANY WAYS! GAH. I would hold off on any big investments until shortly after Q1 2009 financial results are released. We still have a ways to go until we hit bottom. Trust me on that one. I am surprised there is not panic considering what is going to happen over the course of the next month.

 

[ERJ-145CA]

Maybe I should see if I can get refunds on everything I've bought in the last year. Especially all those lift tickets.

 

[drjeff]

I love how the stock markets plunged due to news WE ALREADY HAVE KNOWN FOR A WHILE ANY WAYS! GAH. I would hold off on any big investments until shortly after Q1 2009 financial results are released. We still have a ways to go until we hit bottom. Trust me on that one. I am surprised there is not panic considering what is going to happen over the course of the next month.

Dow 5k coming up in the next few weeks Just sitting tight fully in gov't securities enjoying my "massive" 1.75% or so return(hey atleast my retirement stuff had increased in value the last few months )

Just waiting until my advisor who got me out a few months ago when the market was still in 5 figure territory says "go" and I'm back all in. Right now though I will admit to somewhat enjoying the lack of stress about being in fixed securities and not worrying about this ridiculous level of volatility and over-sold state

 

[mattchuck2]

I love how the stock markets plunged due to news WE ALREADY HAVE KNOWN FOR A WHILE ANY WAYS! GAH. I would hold off on any big investments until shortly after Q1 2009 financial results are released. We still have a ways to go until we hit bottom. Trust me on that one. I am surprised there is not panic considering what is going to happen over the course of the next month.

So you think the 2009 Q1 results are going to be horrible? Or good?

Because if you think there's any way that they would surprise on the upside than I would buy in immediately. They say the market trades 6 months ahead of what's actually going on now (don't know if that's true anymore, but that's what they used to say). If you wait until you see good quarterly results, it might be too late.

But if you're predicting a dismal Q1 report that is even worse than the already lowered guidance, then by all means, wait until after that report comes out to get in . . .

 

[riverc0il]

So you think the 2009 Q1 results are going to be horrible? Or good?

Horrible bad. Don't let good numbers on Black Friday fool you. Retailers are going to get kicked between the legs and it is going to hurt everyone. Retailers are cutting back on hours and that means consumers have less money to spend. Lay offs are happening, store closings are happening, chapter 11s continue, etc. I foresee a wholesale slaughter in the retail industry after the holidays wrap up and if the auto giants fold too.... well...... Q2 is looking really good right now for buying LOL.

That's the way I see it at least.

 

[mondeo]

Swell. Since the typical recession last 12-18 months, everything will be honky dory by next June. Must be an effort to encourage folks to pile back into equities, lol. LOAD UP!!!!!!! Meanwhile,

So will we know before June 2010 that we've come out of a recession in June '09?

I'm thinking we need some dwell time at the 7K-7500 range before we see a true bull market again, but there are a few stocks that are probably worth buying into now.

 

[Marc]

I love how the stock markets plunged due to news WE ALREADY HAVE KNOWN FOR A WHILE ANY WAYS! GAH. I would hold off on any big investments until shortly after Q1 2009 financial results are released. We still have a ways to go until we hit bottom. Trust me on that one. I am surprised there is not panic considering what is going to happen over the course of the next month.

I'd avoid big investments all together and buy securities gradually as a regular savings plan, no matter what the current economic climate

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

As long as people keep buying tombstones I'm happy..

 

[andyzee]

I've been shopping for bargains in the stock market.

 

[deadheadskier]

Horrible bad. Don't let good numbers on Black Friday fool you. Retailers are going to get kicked between the legs and it is going to hurt everyone. Retailers are cutting back on hours and that means consumers have less money to spend. Lay offs are happening, store closings are happening, chapter 11s continue, etc. I foresee a wholesale slaughter in the retail industry after the holidays wrap up and if the auto giants fold too.... well...... Q2 is looking really good right now for buying LOL.

That's the way I see it at least.

That's the way my company sees it. We've hired 'runners' to scour NYC and visit all the companies that are in debt to us in anticipation of them closing their doors after NYE never to be heard from again.

 

[ski_resort_observer]

So you think the 2009 Q1 results are going to be horrible? Or good?. .

Most of the so called experts are forecasting negetive growth for Q1 2009.

If you believe that we have been in a recession since July and going by the historical fact that the stock market rebounds 6 months before the economy does then the stock market turns around July of 2009.

 

[Marc]

Most of the so called experts are forecasting negetive growth for Q1 2009.

If you believe that we have been in a recession since July and going by the historical fact that the stock market rebounds 6 months before the economy does then the stock market turns around July of 2009.

[size=-2]Prior gains do not guarantee future results[/size]

 

[riverc0il]

Good fine print by Marc.

I think timing the market right now is dangerous. I stayed in for the long haul and will pay the price in the short term but (very likely) no worries in the long term. You wait until July to get back in and you could miss the boat. But I also think we haven't truly hit bottom until after retailers post their holiday numbers and the auto company issue goes one way or the other. The big concern for people that pulled out is not jumping back on in time as IMO, the overall stock market is under valued even considering tough economic times. It is like reverse speculation right now. Its bad... but it isn't THAT bad. But it is all about what people are willing to buy and sell... not what is actually happening. Silly way to roll up investments, but it is the best worst system we got until it gets fixed.

 

[Warp Daddy]

Predicting the market is akin to playing Russian Roulette or interpreting herd mentality or predicting lottery numbers

---if you can AFFORD to lose your future -- then by all means roll the dice .
If not be prudent and stay within your risk tolerance .


Hopefully you saw this coming last yr or early in Qtr 1 0f 08 and took appropriate measures and sleep well at nite and can dollar cost average your way out when you FEEL its appropriate -- probably as others suggest during mid to late 2009

So my guess and its" a hunch" is we ain't even CLOSE to seeing the bottom yet . A 5000 Dow is credible

Retail is in retreat
Domestic Auto industry will transform and be leaner , more market sensitive or face extinction
Wall Street influence will never be what it was - regulation is on the way

America's economy will rebound -- BUT it will be a much differant and hopefully better regulated system .


We need to produce DURABLE goods again -- in past recessions this sector in addition to "infrastructure public works" was key to recovery .


Our educational and healthcare systems are a quagmire and need a systemic overhaul .

WE WILL TRANSFORM OUR ECONOMY - it will be a distance race rather than a sprint

 

[ctenidae]

That's the way my company sees it. We've hired 'runners' to scour NYC and visit all the companies that are in debt to us in anticipation of them closing their doors after NYE never to be heard from again.

Predictions are for a wave of retailer bankruptcies after new years- creditors want the retailers to pile up as much cash as they can before driving them to bankruptcy. I can see that happening.

 

[drjeff]

The other HUGE factor too with market history and what really makes things soooooo volatile and very tough to predict, is with the vast array of ways to QUICKLY make trades these days via all the online brokerage means verses in the past where unless you were a very, very, very big whig it might take a day or 2 to get a trade executed, so many more folks are just looking short term, even hours, and making trades on small moves. Long term investing is something that many folks just can't/don't fathom anymore and that's a frustrating, if not troubling concept for many to grasp.

I don't doubt that the market will eventually bouce back, but its more than likely going to be done with much larger day to day swings up and down than in the past

 

[Marc]

The other HUGE factor too with market history and what really makes things soooooo volatile and very tough to predict, is with the vast array of ways to QUICKLY make trades these days via all the online brokerage means verses in the past where unless you were a very, very, very big whig it might take a day or 2 to get a trade executed, so many more folks are just looking short term, even hours, and making trades on small moves. Long term investing is something that many folks just can't/don't fathom anymore and that's a frustrating, if not troubling concept for many to grasp.

I don't doubt that the market will eventually bouce back, but its more than likely going to be done with much larger day to day swings up and down than in the past

I think some of the big swings have also to do with the near immediate dissemination (heh heh) of and access to news and trends that were just not available before the intarnet and the cables.

But there will always be fools who buy high sell low, and as long as there are, there's always money to be made. I just don't have the time to spend analyzing securities (Graham recommends at least one hour per week per position, for the "active" independent investor) which is why I stick with long term positions on market and a few limited sector ETFs. Money you expect to will need in the next ten years should not be held as securities, imho.