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March 13th (Don't Crucify me!)

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8 days is a LONG ways away; however, it is almost impossible to ignore the signs Mother Nature is giving us. (Don't crucify me for this if it goes wrong haha, this is just a technical discussion)

First: NAO/PNA Teleconnection

When the NAO goes Negative, and the PNA goes positive, a storm track normally sets up along the Eastern Seaboard. This doesn't mean a storm WILL happen, but if one was to form, it would be coastal. Here's the Teleconnection indices for the coming weeks.

post-904-0-97229300-1394046091.jpg

It is obvious that the PNA goes WAY positive, and the NAO trickles down to negative. This means= East Coast storm track

Second: The Ingredients

So we have the track, now where are the ingredients? Right here:
post-904-0-92337900-1394058853.jpg

The flow has split into 3 different jet streams, the Arctic, Polar and Subtropical. In this current model depiction, there is energy along each jet, running in sync with each other. With this Teleconnection signal, if 2 of these were to phase together, we have ourselves a storm ripping up the east Coast. If a Triple Phaser occurs (Unlikely) this storm could be biblical. Right now, the Models are all over the place, some stay no storm, some say phase, some say Triple Phase Superbomb.

To recap, we have the storm track and the energy. Now lets take a look at the models.

Third: Model Discussion (Written By a Professional Meteorologist

CDC/CPC agreed upon PNA spike soaring over +3SD, temporally collocated with an NAO fall from that's > 2 SD right across the ides of the month. Meanwhile, the MJO is even stronger in phase 8 from now through the 15th leading up to that date... (see below)

It really is a pretty fantastic teleconnector convergence and almost a hemispheric syncing toward unleashing something large. How large and what, still to be determined.

We'll see how it flops out of the erroneous runs that will be rife for the time being.

NAVGEM ... last 3 cycles are nailing impressive stream interaction and signaling possible massive bomb -- rather than roll-eyes and make fun, folks who know better would raise an eye-brow when a model with a specific progression bias overcomes it's native short-coming to express a solution that goes against, but one that fits into fore said teleconnector arguments.

The Euro solution should be taken seriously... The 12z GFS while not on board migrated substantially into this amplitude with better expressed western ridge and digging jet into the Lakes region during the same time...

Fourth: Blocking

A Greenland block is a staple of a major snowstorm. That NAO turns negative at jut the right time, allowing for a weak block to be in place. Albeit weak, this block helps force the system up the coast, instead of being flung out to sea. Watch out for a Cutter though, that is also in the realm of possibility.

...........


So to point out the elephant in the room, there is a whopper of a signal for March 13th. (caution, its a signal, not a reality) Every key ingredient is in place, now can the atmosphere bake a cake? We'll find out over the coming week.

Should be fun!
 
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Joined
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Also to note, the energy from this system is currently in the form of a Typhoon in the Pacific, just to give you an idea of what we are dealing with.

Our "storm" in its infancy, 10,000 miles away.
Faxal vis0.jpg
 

Big Game

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Contributions like this make AZ great to lurk on. Bulldog you are freaking nuts and you are beautiful. This is awesome speculation. Storm hittting will be a bonus.
 

JDMRoma

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So Your saying I should be putting in for a day off on the 14th then………….
 

BenedictGomez

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So Your saying I should be putting in for a day off on the 14th then………….

No. Because odds are this will never happen as depicted. Most "monster storms" on models 9 days out do not come to fruition. I dont know if anyone keeps stats on it, but I'd say 1 in 5, or about 20% chance of it occurring, which is the same as saying there's 80% odds it wont be as big as modeled. The only thing you do in this timeframe is be happy a storm IS showing, and just keep hoping it doesnt "disappear" in the next few day. If you can get to 4 days out and it's still there, then it's time to do your happy dance. Eight or nine days out = not so much. But this one does have a lot going for it, so fingers (and toes) crossed.
 
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No. Because odds are this will never happen as depicted. Most "monster storms" on models 9 days out do not come to fruition. I dont know if anyone keeps stats on it, but I'd say 1 in 5, or about 20% chance of it occurring, which is the same as saying there's 80% odds it wont be as big as modeled. The only thing you do in this timeframe is be happy a storm IS showing, and just keep hoping it doesnt "disappear" in the next few day. If you can get to 4 days out and it's still there, then it's time to do your happy dance. Eight or nine days out = not so much. But this one does have a lot going for it, so fingers (and toes) crossed.

Couldn't have said it better.
 

jack97

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When I was living in CA, it was cool seeing how the local mets would track storms developing from the pacific and then you can see how it rolls through the US. That year, had some moderate drought so any heavy rains causing severe mud slides was a major concern.

Very cool to see but I never could get use to watching nfl in the morning :?
 

ScottySkis

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I want ti hear that the Catskills will get 200 inches of snow fron this storm lol. Even if this doesnt happen i still love snow talk why because i like all of you am happily addicted to snow talk in winter and maybe something else but to lol.
 

bigbog

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I want ti hear that the Catskills will get 200 inches of snow fron this storm lol. Even if this doesnt happen i still love snow talk why because i like all of you am happily addicted to snow talk in winter and maybe something else but to lol.

Wouldn't that be something.... Media would be calling it a national disaster...am tired of turning tv on(once in a while) and listening to media's spin on Putin's credit history. Would solidify the Catskills as the Powder Capital of the World ... If temps would stay safe = all good.
 

MadMadWorld

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I want ti hear that the Catskills will get 200 inches of snow fron this storm lol. Even if this doesnt happen i still love snow talk why because i like all of you am happily addicted to snow talk in winter and maybe something else but to lol.

Maybe?
 

Bostonian

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Bluto: Nothing is over until we decide it is! Was it over when the Germans bombed pearl harbor? Hell no!

As far as I'm concerned, anything is game at this point! I would LOVE a powder day Magic on Thursday or Friday!
 

WJenness

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What do I need to burn to make this happen?

If it is my office, I'm happy to make that sacrifice...

The past three days have made me want to throw things in here anyway.
 

from_the_NEK

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My (totally non-scientific, anti-jinxing, curmudgeon) predictions:

Scenario 1: Storm blows up, dumps 3 feet of snow in CT/MA but there is a sharp cutoff on the north side and NVT gets 2.567” (still more snow than we have received in the last 3 weeks). White Mtns heavily shadow the NEK.
Probability=40%

Scenario 2: Storm is a cutter and tracks through Ottawa, dumping 3” of hot rain on New England.
Probability=40%

Scenario 3: The storm barely organizes and produces widespread snow showers in NE that accumulate enough to barely cover the dirt 3 week old snow currently on the ground. Shovels stay in the garage.
Probability=40%
 
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EURO drums up another monster. This is also the 1st solution where it brings the polar jet into play. Not quite a Triple Phase, but getting there.

The only triple phaser I know of that hit New England as a snowstorm and not a cutter is March 1993. ( probably not accurate)
 
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