November 1? *Drumbeats*

[Boston Bulldog]

The models are all over the place, that's for sure. One thing is for certain, however, we have a very interesting pattern setting up. A Coastal Storm is on the models' radar, and this time, NNE may see some flakes.

Nothing is set in stone right now, the remnants of Hurricane Ana are messing with the models right now so funky solutions are being put out, but the "Key Ingredients" for a stream phase will be in play by the end of the month.

This is just something to speculate on. If Ana cooperates, there may be a wintry storm for the Northern Greens and Maine.

 

[Tin]

Either way this is going to screw things up because despite the low temps the humidity will be too high to make snow and if they did get snow in the Greens or Maine it wouldn't be enough to open (especially looking at a few days in the 50s and rain the following week). Would rather just avoid the system and high humidity so K and SR can start blowing snow.

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Also cheers everyone! I know I'm excited for another winter of storm watching!


ETA: Nice blocking signal

 

[BenedictGomez]

Either way this is going to screw things up because despite the low temps the humidity will be too high to make snow and if they did get snow in the Greens or Maine it wouldn't be enough to open (especially looking at a few days in the 50s and rain the following week). Would rather just avoid the system and high humidity so K and SR can start blowing snow.

Yeah, these late October and early November events dont excite me, because they all just melt anyway.

 

[Cannonball]

Yeah, these late October and early November events dont excite me, because they all just melt anyway.

All snow just melts anyway. The whole trick to this skiing thing is to slide on it before that happens. This time of year you just have to act a little faster.

 

[Nick]

http://www.necn.com/weather/stories/Tricky-Halloween-Forecast-280473522.html?3

 

[Not Sure]

All snow just melts anyway. The whole trick to this skiing thing is to slide on it before that happens. This time of year you just have to act a little faster.

And have a pair of rock skis

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Models are coming into focus, and there is indeed a storm. Some runs have brought snow into the NW metro area of Boston!

 

[Boston Bulldog]

No lie... here is the Burlington discussion on the storm.

Given recent trends for systems to become more cutoff and closed...for prevailing westerly follow...and models showing a developing/amplifying ridge across the Central Plains...will trend toward the European model (ecmwf) solution. This supports chance/likely probability of precipitation late Friday night into Saturday...as 850 to 500mb moisture associated with developing trough increases from west to east across our region. Additional precipitation...mainly in the form of snow would be likely across our central/eastern section Sat night into Sunday...with a sharp precipitation/accumulation gradient expected. Very limited quantitative precipitation forecast/snow would occur along and west of the cpv if the European model (ecmwf) solution verified...with some upslope enhancement for the western slopes possible. Prognosticated 850 mb temperatures drop between -8 and -10c...while 925mb temperatures are <0c by 00z Sunday with soundings showing the freezing level between 200 and 400 feet...supporting snow in the valleys away from Lake Champlain. Given warm ground temperatures and marginal bl profiles...not expecting much accumulation in the slv/cpv. Temperatures will struggle in the 30s Sat/Sunday in the valleys with brisk north winds. If you have plans in the mountains this weekend...plan for middle winter conditions...with temperatures only in the teens and 20s with gusty northwest winds...and accumulating snow...especially Sat into Sunday. Too early for accumulations but I would have the rock skis on standby this weekend...if you are looking for the 1st turns of the season along The Spine of the Green Mountains from Jay Peak to Mansfield to Killington.

 

[mriceyman]

Honestly the whole warm ground thing i believe is a big myth. Last year in jersey( maybe 2 years ago) we had no prolonged cold and an 78* day before a 6+" snowfall accumulating on grass and pavement. If it gets cold enough (below 30 or so) and is snowing hard enough it will stick.


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[Boston Bulldog]

EURO ensembles say snow all the way to Brockton Mass and solid snows in Ski Country.

 

[St. Bear]

Honestly the whole warm ground thing i believe is a big myth. Last year in jersey( maybe 2 years ago) we had no prolonged cold and an 78* day before a 6+" snowfall accumulating on grass and pavement. If it gets cold enough (below 30 or so) and is snowing hard enough it will stick.


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It'll stick, sure, but a cold ground would mean that 6+" could've easily been 10+".

 

[BenedictGomez]

It'll stick, sure, but a cold ground would mean that 6+" could've easily been 10+".

Right. It's a battle, and eventually the snow wins if there's enough of it. But some of the snow "dies" to cool the ground.

 

[BenedictGomez]

EURO ensembles say snow all the way to Brockton Mass and solid snows in Ski Country.

Well that's a pretty significant change. I havent paid any attention to this, does the Canuck look similar?

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Canuck says whiff OTS, but it deepens down to 980mb south of Nova Scotia.

 

[Quietman]

12Z GFS is saying the same thing pretty much.

 

[Puck it]

I am thinking a midweek opening like Wed or Thurs.

 

[Cannonball]

If there is >3" within 30 minutes of Lincoln I'll be earning turns. Anyone game to join me?

 

[Savemeasammy]

If there is >3" within 30 minutes of Lincoln I'll be earning turns. Anyone game to join me?

I wonder if MadMadWorld would let me borrow his skis?


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[Puck it]

If there is >3" within 30 minutes of Lincoln I'll be earning turns. Anyone game to join me?

I will let you know.