powderfreak
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*Wrote this for the local Burlington area and Green Mountain ski areas which are my bread and butter. This isn't going to be a huge event and I expect most of NY and New Enland north of I-90 picks up a dusting to a few inches in localized spots with this Arctic Front. Just wanted to throw out a little meso-analysis and forecast for those interested in the 'Bush/MRG, Bolton, Stowe, Smuggs, Jay area.
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Just getting back into the states and really like what I'm seeing for some
fluffy snowfall accumulation tonight at the ski areas. Steep lapse rates
with brutally cold air moving in at H85 on top of still somewhat mild
surface temps should produce low topped squalls. Looks like a decent WINDEX
(wintertime instability) event with snowfall rates in squalls at up to
2"/hr. Snow growth is good and ratios should be high. Based on moisture
pooling up the Saint Lawrence River Valley from strong SWly winds (even 12"+
Lake Effect amounts up that way which is rare) and good convergence of low
level winds along the front, I expect 3-6" of snow at resorts along the
Green Mountain spine by tomorrow morning. Isolated higher amounts are
possible. Orographics will play a big role with winds converging along the
front (SW and NW) to produce a mean westerly flow through the column. This
will hit the Green Mtn spine perpendicularly and orographics will be optimal
for a time.
I'd say BTV and low elevation environs will see anywhere from a solid
coating to 2" as the front moves through. West slope foothills see the best
chance at higher amounts as far as populated regions go. Best chance of
snow looks to be a couple hours either side of midnight tonight. I've
always liked these local events where terrain can play a big role and it can
get exciting everywhere for a time when the heavy snow moves in.
-Scott
ps: Already noticing a fairly significant terrain/upslope signal on recent
composite radar data. Looks like it should be snowing moderately along the
spine from Jay Peak to Eden as the Lake Band off Ontario slowly drops south
ahead of the front due to a subtle deep layer wind shift from SW to WSW.
____________________________________________________________
Just getting back into the states and really like what I'm seeing for some
fluffy snowfall accumulation tonight at the ski areas. Steep lapse rates
with brutally cold air moving in at H85 on top of still somewhat mild
surface temps should produce low topped squalls. Looks like a decent WINDEX
(wintertime instability) event with snowfall rates in squalls at up to
2"/hr. Snow growth is good and ratios should be high. Based on moisture
pooling up the Saint Lawrence River Valley from strong SWly winds (even 12"+
Lake Effect amounts up that way which is rare) and good convergence of low
level winds along the front, I expect 3-6" of snow at resorts along the
Green Mountain spine by tomorrow morning. Isolated higher amounts are
possible. Orographics will play a big role with winds converging along the
front (SW and NW) to produce a mean westerly flow through the column. This
will hit the Green Mtn spine perpendicularly and orographics will be optimal
for a time.
I'd say BTV and low elevation environs will see anywhere from a solid
coating to 2" as the front moves through. West slope foothills see the best
chance at higher amounts as far as populated regions go. Best chance of
snow looks to be a couple hours either side of midnight tonight. I've
always liked these local events where terrain can play a big role and it can
get exciting everywhere for a time when the heavy snow moves in.
-Scott
ps: Already noticing a fairly significant terrain/upslope signal on recent
composite radar data. Looks like it should be snowing moderately along the
spine from Jay Peak to Eden as the Lake Band off Ontario slowly drops south
ahead of the front due to a subtle deep layer wind shift from SW to WSW.
