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Weekend of December 14th

billski

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WinnChill and his friends at snowforecast.com have their eye on a major event for this upcoming weekend.
they are sketching out numbers like 6-9" at Bromley and Wildcat, 7-10 at Bush and Cannon.

the weather wonks over at americanwx are already on board with terms like "lovely snow ratio", "sizeable".
12z GFS and GGEM are in agreement. Euro is not far behind.

whatever the case, the cold temps are with us now for a while and that bodes well for snowmaking. Have to keep an eye on this one.
 
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My gut is telling me a widespread 6-10 north of the MA boarder. This thing will be racing in and out of here, but we should get a solid slug of precip in the process. Bouchard is already pimping this storm out, very unlike him.

Bill: Have you see the Americanwx guys freaking out over this little event tomorrow? I've never seen people so invested in a storm, nonetheless a 1-4 inch event in SE MA!
 
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I'm liking this storm for early season base building. The more we get, the faster we can crash the trees:-D
 

mriceyman

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Im hoping it winds up And crushes us .. Hopefully a nice pow day at kton for me


Sent from my iPhone
 

ScottySkis

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WinnChill and his friends at snowforecast.com have their eye on a major event for this upcoming weekend.
they are sketching out numbers like 6-9" at Bromley and Wildcat, 7-10 at Bush and Cannon.

the weather wonks over at americanwx are already on board with terms like "lovely snow ratio", "sizeable".
12z GFS and GGEM are in agreement. Euro is not far behind.

whatever the case, the cold temps are with us now for a while and that bodes well for snowmaking. Have to keep an eye on this one.

Will the Catskills get any snow?

I still think Winn chill is a great forecaster, but not sure if he is friendly with his ex employer.
 
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Tin

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Where are all the maps and pretty colors to help me get through work today?

Snowforecast.com must be in default as it is showing 14-18" for most ski areas in NH and VT and additional on Sunday. Other spots like Stowe and Wildcat are forecasted to get 15-20" then 3-5" Sunday.
 
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4aprice

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WinnChill and his friends at snowforecast.com have their eye on a major event for this upcoming weekend.
they are sketching out numbers like 6-9" at Bromley and Wildcat, 7-10 at Bush and Cannon.

the weather wonks over at americanwx are already on board with terms like "lovely snow ratio", "sizeable".
12z GFS and GGEM are in agreement. Euro is not far behind.

whatever the case, the cold temps are with us now for a while and that bodes well for snowmaking. Have to keep an eye on this one.

The Canadian model shows big snows with a 10 to 1 ratio from the Pocono's north. CFSv2 has most of us enjoying a white Christmas. Bastardi says Canadian cold reloading. All pretty promising.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ
 

Cannonball

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Keep in mind that Snowforcast.com is only reliable to about 2 days out. Their default is to show 19"-23". Does anyone seriously see 19"-23" in Waterville's future for this weekend?

Capture.JPG

At this point I feel like they do more harm than good. Every week people get all riled up about the 2' on the way.
 

skiberg

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I have to agree, I have found them to be fairly accurate in the past and in forecasting the long term weather trends but this year they have been over-forecasting consistently. Also, what happened to their long term weather trend. I guess they don't do it anymore.
 

billski

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Bill: Have you see the Americanwx guys freaking out over this little event tomorrow? I've never seen people so invested in a storm, nonetheless a 1-4 inch event in SE MA!

Yeah, they get excited when someone pees in the stream ;) It's rather entertaining to watch. However so much of what they write is insider jokes and sarcasm that it takes too much time for most people to sort through it. When 2-3" gets 25 pages of posts, it tells me these guys need to get a social life!
 

skiberg

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Here is what the Mad River Weather Blog has to say. They have done a really nice job forecasting in the past, keep in mind he won't make a firm commitment yet

"This system has a lot of the right ingredients to be a big snow producer, one certainly capable of getting winter mountain activities up and running."
 

billski

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Keep in mind that Snowforcast.com is only reliable to about 2 days out. Their default is to show 19"-23". Does anyone seriously see 19"-23" in Waterville's future for this weekend?

View attachment 9728

At this point I feel like they do more harm than good. Every week people get all riled up about the 2' on the way.

I've not seen that, especially when Cameron is doing the writing. The narratives are far more important than flash data. I do know that many New England resorts are still on autofeed from NWS, with no value add. I suspect it's still on autofeed since there is no narrative at the bottom.
I've had Cameron come to our club to speak. The forecasters all have day jobs, not even sure they are getting paid yet/much.

Startling what I see in your flick, though the other days are much more in line. I'll ask. Then again, it is Friday the 13th after all.....
 

billski

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NWS Boston is on board
THERE IS A MODERATE PROBABILITY OF A WINTRY MIX THAT MAY REQUIRE
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE WEEKEND.

NWS Burlington is onboard
IT APPEARS COLD AIR IS DEEPER...STRONGER AND SHLD STAY
ENTRENCHED FOR ALL SNOW. QPF AMTS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF THE
BIGGEST WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL OF THIS YOUNG SEASON...WHICH ISNT HARD
TO DO.

Albany
FRI NT-SUN...MODELS ARE CONVERGING AT A HIGHER PROBABILITY OF SNOW
AFFECTING MUCH OF THE REGION DURING A PORTION OF THIS TIME
PERIOD.
European:
THE 00Z/10 ECMWF ALSO HINTS AT A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM...WHICH
TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH...AND INTENSIFIES SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG
ISLAND...WHICH WOULD BRING POTENTIALLY A STEADY SNOWFALL TO A GOOD
PORTION OF THE REGION SAT INTO EARLY SUN...WITH PERHAPS SOME WINTRY
MIX OR RAIN OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE EVENT.


Me thinks my day off on Monday is perfect timing.
 

billski

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Where are all the maps and pretty colors to help me get through work today?

A bit early for that; it is five days away after all.
If you really want to squander the day away with forecast pictures, go to the e-wall and look at the models.
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ewall.html



Anyways, here is my compiliation of pretty pics, but they don't extend out as far as you want
http://www.iabsi.com/public/ski/

Actually, AZ is doing a nicer job than I collecting the pretty pics. Again, they are currents http://www.alpinezone.com/weather/
 

4aprice

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Not that it means anything to anybody here, but we have a nice fresh 3-inches otg in NNJ as I write. Sure makes things pretty around here for the holiday season. Man I hope that Canadian model is right. PA this weekend but back to NNY/NNE next.

Alex

Lake Hopatcong, NJ
 

dlague

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I have to agree, I have found them to be fairly accurate in the past and in forecasting the long term weather trends but this year they have been over-forecasting consistently. Also, what happened to their long term weather trend. I guess they don't do it anymore.

There have been four winter weather events that got hyped up so far since October that more or less all fizzled out. And there were events like Jay Peaks November this year that we did not see coming! A nice build up before Christmas would be awesome!
 

skiberg

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What I like about this storm is the models are INCREASING the probability of snow, as opposed to the past few storms where models began to consistently decease the probability of snow the nearer the event got.
 

catsup948

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After a slow start to December it seems the next 10 days are going to look and feel like winter. Snowing moderately here is Shelburne Falls right now!

Sent from my SCH-I545 using Tapatalk
 
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