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Winter 2019/2020

slatham

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Need to crank the engine on this forum!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGZJ8tSFLDs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIxelyZBysI

I actually have no idea who these guys are. I like the fact that they agree, and I obviously like their conclusions. :snow:The 2nd one has some fairly solid analysis too.

And they mesh with Weatherbell (although we have to recognize the cold/snow bias of Weatherbell).

https://www.weatherbell.com/images/imguploader/images/Winter_2019_20_Snowfall.png

You'll have to go to Weatherbell to see the details.

Its all about water temps. Lets see how they evolve this fall.
 

Smellytele

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Right where I want to be
All I know is I have a back yard now that is full of acorns. Walking on the back yard is like walking on ball bearings. The most I have ever seen. Old wives tale says this means a lot of snow coming. More like just a shit load of squirrels next year.


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Whitey

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All I know is I have a back yard now that is full of acorns. Walking on the back yard is like walking on ball bearings. The most I have ever seen. Old wives tale says this means a lot of snow coming. More like just a shit load of squirrels next year.
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I've heard that one too. And my yard is the same way as yours, plus hickory nuts. I was at a friends the other day and the acorns were literally raining down from the trees. I've never seen them come down that thick like that.
 

bdfreetuna

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keep the faith
July and August 2019 were some of the nicest and sunniest weather, with localized rain showers and "sun showers" frequently, compared to what we've had in years/decade. Bluest skies I've seen in as long. I didn't see a contrail last more than a minute before fully completely dissipating for a full 2 months. 4 days out of the week there would be spontaneous localized rain showers and very hard to predict.

Right before Hurricane Dorian the Wx / climate control ops made a big move with the artificial cirrus on the east coast to stabilize and dessicate the lower troposphere with the aersolation we've seen increasingly over the last decade plus. The result was Dorian sitting over Grand Bahama for 3 days, even moving slightly backwards on it's course briefly, before taking a 90 degree turn toward Nova Scotia. I don't intend to explain weather warfare but the reality is we're at least occasionally engaged in it.

In any case, this summer was a fantastic summer for wildlife and plants. The frequent rain showers and unfiltered sunlight over the course of just 2 months led to a comeback for Honey Bees, and my observations were that the insect and plant life were thriving like unseen in many years.

In the west/rockies it's fully accepted that water management bureaus and ski areas work together to "seed" regions with fleet of airplanes and ground-based devices, with the intent purpose of affecting snow pack. Maybe we should be asking these folks what kind of winter we should expect, especially now that we have big players like Vail operating on our turf.
 

NY DirtBag

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Mecox, NY / Winhall, VT
July and August 2019 were some of the nicest and sunniest weather, with localized rain showers and "sun showers" frequently, compared to what we've had in years/decade. Bluest skies I've seen in as long. I didn't see a contrail last more than a minute before fully completely dissipating for a full 2 months. 4 days out of the week there would be spontaneous localized rain showers and very hard to predict.

Right before Hurricane Dorian the Wx / climate control ops made a big move with the artificial cirrus on the east coast to stabilize and dessicate the lower troposphere with the aersolation we've seen increasingly over the last decade plus. The result was Dorian sitting over Grand Bahama for 3 days, even moving slightly backwards on it's course briefly, before taking a 90 degree turn toward Nova Scotia. I don't intend to explain weather warfare but the reality is we're at least occasionally engaged in it.

In any case, this summer was a fantastic summer for wildlife and plants. The frequent rain showers and unfiltered sunlight over the course of just 2 months led to a comeback for Honey Bees, and my observations were that the insect and plant life were thriving like unseen in many years.


In the west/rockies it's fully accepted that water management bureaus and ski areas work together to "seed" regions with fleet of airplanes and ground-based devices, with the intent purpose of affecting snow pack. Maybe we should be asking these folks what kind of winter we should expect, especially now that we have big players like Vail operating on our turf.

Wow. I need to hear more about this. sounds interesting
 

slatham

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590x331_09201156_winterprecipus919.jpg
590x331_09201155_wintertempsus919.jpg

Hope this plays out. Some other maps - not shown - show the delta vs last year, and for the NE its pretty consistent that they expect it to be colder. Lets hope those colder temps coincide with storms. If you recall, there were a lot of storms last season that changed over to non-snow. If its a bit colder in those situations......
 

slatham

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https://www.weatherbell.com/

Joe says this fall weather fits 2013-14 Winter analogs ...we'll see .

Actually I think its 2014/15 that's the analog year. That winter did not have huge amounts of snow, but in SoVT it did not rain or thaw from the Sunday of MLK weekend (turned to snow overnight for 6" powder on Monday) into the first week of March. There was a Sunday/Monday storm in mid Feb that gave Magic a total of 14" and the woods were thigh deep dry pow from the storm plus 4+ weeks of accumulation. Closest to Colorado skiing I've had on the east coast (meaning deep dry powder that was't from just one storm).

We also had a 12" storm the Wednesday of thanksgiving week. Although not in my notes, I think that was also the November of record breaking cold where snowmaking terrain expansion was more like December.
 
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Pez

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Wasn’t 14/15 the year that Blue Hill was the powder capital of North America? I feel like that year MA had a ton of snow.

As long as it isn’t 15/16 I’m good.


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slatham

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I stand corrected. While one of the analogs for the WINTER is 14/15, Joe is using NOVEMBER 2013 as an analog for the month.

Models coming together for a cold shot next weekend and into the following week. I hope it verifies.
 
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ScottySkis

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From Rebecca Facebook forecast for Thanksgiving
Week
She been pretty accurate last few years since I started following her
https://www.facebook.com/254982781215764/posts/2492512660796087/
It’s Thanksgiving week

We have the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event going on. That is tied in to what is about to occur and well into the long range.

I’ve been talking about the potential Wednesday Thursday storm for a week now. I know many have travel plans.
The storm around Thanksgiving is going to not only disrupt travel plans, it’s going to kick start high latitude blocking and an active storm pattern. Rain or snow over this time will depend on temperature profiles.

Tuesday into Wednesday a storm will track through across the Midwest and then move over New York State and northern New England. The system will bring rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow, especially across New York State and New England. Mostly rain for Pennsylvania, and the Middle Atlantic. With Upstate New York and Northern into Central New England seeing rain (perhaps some mix or snow if it’s cold enough) These areas would most likely see a change over to snow, with the passage of the cold front. Rain/snow will hang around into Thursday. The air will cool off quite a bit behind the front. The biggest concern with this system is looking to be wind. Wind gust of 40-50 mph, with perhaps damaging wind gust even higher, especially for higher elevations. Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade balloons could end up being a casualty of the winds on Thanksgiving Day. The blustery winds and chilly conditions will hang around for Black Friday as well.

Another storm is likely over the coming weekend into Next Monday
.
The pattern going forward is going to be very active. There are indications that we’re going to see another SSW during November. So, this could make the end of December and January quite cold.

The first 5-10 days of December could see a potent storm, with the blocking that looks to be very prevalent, it could be a very interesting storm. The pattern looks to be cold over the next few weeks……so some snow storms are not a big stretch. The GFS is very bullish on snow prospects moving into December.
 

ScottySkis

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From Rebecca Facebook forecast for Thanksgiving
Week
She been pretty accurate last few years since I started following her
https://www.facebook.com/254982781215764/posts/2492512660796087/
It’s Thanksgiving week

We have the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event going on. That is tied in to what is about to occur and well into the long range.

I’ve been talking about the potential Wednesday Thursday storm for a week now. I know many have travel plans.
The storm around Thanksgiving is going to not only disrupt travel plans, it’s going to kick start high latitude blocking and an active storm pattern. Rain or snow over this time will depend on temperature profiles.

Tuesday into Wednesday a storm will track through across the Midwest and then move over New York State and northern New England. The system will bring rain/sleet/freezing rain/snow, especially across New York State and New England. Mostly rain for Pennsylvania, and the Middle Atlantic. With Upstate New York and Northern into Central New England seeing rain (perhaps some mix or snow if it’s cold enough) These areas would most likely see a change over to snow, with the passage of the cold front. Rain/snow will hang around into Thursday. The air will cool off quite a bit behind the front. The biggest concern with this system is looking to be wind. Wind gust of 40-50 mph, with perhaps damaging wind gust even higher, especially for higher elevations. Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade balloons could end up being a casualty of the winds on Thanksgiving Day. The blustery winds and chilly conditions will hang around for Black Friday as well.

Another storm is likely over the coming weekend into Next Monday
.
The pattern going forward is going to be very active. There are indications that we’re going to see another SSW during November. So, this could make the end of December and January quite cold.

The first 5-10 days of December could see a potent storm, with the blocking that looks to be very prevalent, it could be a very interesting storm. The pattern looks to be cold over the next few weeks……so some snow storms are not a big stretch. The GFS is very bullish on snow prospects moving into December.

Everything is pointing toward Cold and a lot of it.
We have the current Sudden Stratospheric Warming event going on. Which is doing its job. We will be seeing a lot of blocking over Greenland.

The SOI is still falling.

SOI values for 25 Nov, 2019
Average SOI for last 30 days -9.60
Average SOI for last 90 days -9.49
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -13.62

Last winter the SOI didn't become this negative until late in the season.............So it could be trying to tell us something.

This is making the Sunday Monday storm, a very possible snow storm, for much of our region. With the Blocking the cold will be very slow to depart. This could result in Snow/ice down to the Mason Dixon Line.

Then we have the second possible SSW later in December. The MJO will be a big part of what happens. The JMA and GFS doesn’t allow the MJO to cycle through the warm phases. But the Euro does with the MJO rotating through phases 4,5, and 6. These are warm phases this time of year, The Euro is supporting my idea of a warmer December;that I laid out in my winter outlook. But the Euro has been doing poorly with the long-range temperatures … much worse than the GFS and JMA. We will see, but based on the current teleconnections, a very cold December is quite possible.

The pattern over the next 2-3 weeks is looking to be very active. The colder air means we have a better chance of seeing more in the way of snow instead of the other way around.

The Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies says cold. Here is a look at current SSTs. When you see anomalies look like this, you’re thinking cold.
 
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