• Welcome to AlpineZone, the largest online community of skiers and snowboarders in the Northeast!

    You may have to REGISTER before you can post. Registering is FREE, gets rid of the majority of advertisements, and lets you participate in giveaways and other AlpineZone events!

Winter Forecast 2015-2016

dlague

Active member
Joined
Nov 7, 2012
Messages
8,789
Points
36
Location
CS, Colorado
Time to start this up since the forecasts are starting to ramp up in good shape.

Cold & Snowy (Brutal) Severe Season is More than Likely for the North East & Mid East Coast yet Again

http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/


The AMO is the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. It’s typically defined by Sea Surface Temperatures patters (SST’s) in the North Atlantic. As you can see from the image above, the JAMSTEC model (the primary global source for SST projections) is thinking the waters of the North Atlantic project to be below normal (Colder) for SON201 (September, October and November of 2015). At the same time, it’s pegging SST’s in the Pacific to be WARMER than normal…and that type of set up has typically translated into a cold winter.

http://www.propanebuzz.com/early-clues-for-2015-2016-winter-weather/
 
Last edited:

BenedictGomez

Active member
Joined
Jan 26, 2011
Messages
10,661
Points
38
Location
PRNJ
Time to start this up since the forecasts are starting to ramp up in good shape.

Cold & Snowy (Brutal) Severe Season is More than Likely for the North East & Mid East Coast yet Again

Those aren't forecasts. They're more like, "eye of newt" meets "click-through revenue generation".
 

catsup948

New member
Joined
Dec 6, 2007
Messages
1,026
Points
0
Location
Shelburne Falls, MA
It would be hard to beat last seasons longivity, but snowfall could be beaten for many locations in northern New England. I have a feeling the northern greens get crushed with upslope this coming winter. I don't know why I just feel they are overdue for some monster events. I also feel this is going to be an elevation driven winter. No real snow near the coast but tons at elevation. This is typical of el Nino winters.
 
Last edited:

dlague

Active member
Joined
Nov 7, 2012
Messages
8,789
Points
36
Location
CS, Colorado
It would be hard to beat last seasons longivity, but snowfall could be beaten for many locations in northern New England. I have a feeling the northern greens get crushed with upslope this coming winter. I don't know why I just feel they are overdue for some monster events. I also feel this is going to be an elevation driven winter. No real snow near the coast but tons at elevation. This is typical of el Nino winters.

I am hoping you are right!
 

yeggous

New member
Joined
Oct 8, 2012
Messages
2,156
Points
0
Location
Chelmsford, MA
It would be hard to beat last seasons longivity, but snowfall could be beaten for many locations in northern New England. I have a feeling the northern greens get crushed with upslope this coming winter. I don't know why I just feel they are overdue for some monster events. I also feel this is going to be an elevation driven winter. No real snow near the coast but tons at elevation. This is typical of el Nino winters.

ENSO has little to no correlation with New England weather.

California has a promising outlook. I am working from our San Francisco office this week and am looking forward to returning this winter. Tahoe, here I come! I'm still trying to figure out an excuse to visit the Salt Lake City office.


Sent from my iPhone using AlpineZone mobile app
 

dlague

Active member
Joined
Nov 7, 2012
Messages
8,789
Points
36
Location
CS, Colorado
ENSO has little to no correlation with New England weather.

California has a promising outlook. I am working from our San Francisco office this week and am looking forward to returning this winter. Tahoe, here I come! I'm still trying to figure out an excuse to visit the Salt Lake City office.

Well it does effect the jet stream. according to NOAA.


Repost
Well everything suggests that the polar vortex get pushed further east bringing cold to the northeast. Storm tracks are further south and more tropical. If those two come together which at best would be somewhere along the east northeast theoretically then large amounts of snow are possible. However things have to be lined up perfectly which does not always happen as depicted below.

ENSO_USimpacts_precip_610.jpg
 

marcski

New member
Joined
Jan 10, 2005
Messages
4,576
Points
0
Location
Westchester County, NY and a Mountain near you!
http://firsthandweather.com/930/early-2015-16-winter-forecast-a-regional-breakdown/

Northeast Forecast:

If you’re familiar at all with what a lot of strong El Niño winters usually look like, you may be wondering why I have this entire region as being cold with typical snow. As I explained above, the very warm waters in the northeast Pacific have not dissipated, and even though we have plenty of time for it to break down from the west, it still could be there in some form by this winter. These warmer waters do have the ability to affect the overall long-wave pattern in the U.S., and as we saw the last two winters, it can create a wavy and amplified jet stream, pushing Arctic air south into this region. While it’s difficult to say just how cold this region will be at this point, I do believe that several intrusions of Arctic air are possible. I don’t expect snowfall to be nearly as high as last year in places like Boston but decent snowfall totals should occur for many of these regions. Conditions should be drier overall in the Ohio Valley, but the amount of snowfall that the area gets this winter is still a bit of a wildcard. I should have a lot more information in the fall for this region as there are still some fairly sizable uncertainties.
 

Siliconebobsquarepants

Active member
Joined
Dec 14, 2013
Messages
2,641
Points
38
Location
Lehigh County Pa.
Website
www.youtube.com
http://firsthandweather.com/930/early-2015-16-winter-forecast-a-regional-breakdown/

Northeast Forecast:

If you’re familiar at all with what a lot of strong El Niño winters usually look like, you may be wondering why I have this entire region as being cold with typical snow. As I explained above, the very warm waters in the northeast Pacific have not dissipated, and even though we have plenty of time for it to break down from the west, it still could be there in some form by this winter. These warmer waters do have the ability to affect the overall long-wave pattern in the U.S., and as we saw the last two winters, it can create a wavy and amplified jet stream, pushing Arctic air south into this region. While it’s difficult to say just how cold this region will be at this point, I do believe that several intrusions of Arctic air are possible. I don’t expect snowfall to be nearly as high as last year in places like Boston but decent snowfall totals should occur for many of these regions. Conditions should be drier overall in the Ohio Valley, but the amount of snowfall that the area gets this winter is still a bit of a wildcard. I should have a lot more information in the fall for this region as there are still some fairly sizable uncertainties.

Looking at the map I have a curious question ,How does Montana- Wisconsin end up much warmer and Arkansas -Maine end up cold ?
if the cold air comes from the artic...and the "Ridge "or "Blob " factors in ......Hmmmm?
 

ALLSKIING

Moderator
Staff member
Moderator
Joined
Jan 6, 2005
Messages
6,912
Points
38
Location
East Setauket,NY/Killington,VT
These guys nailed the last two winter forecasts,around the end of August they put out an official one.
Hoping there is more warm water off Alaska than what they have in the first run.

I know what your saying but for me they were way to specific to even pay attention. For instance "all the snow for the NE may come in one big nor'easter" really?
 

Siliconebobsquarepants

Active member
Joined
Dec 14, 2013
Messages
2,641
Points
38
Location
Lehigh County Pa.
Website
www.youtube.com
I know what your saying but for me they were way to specific to even pay attention. For instance "all the snow for the NE may come in one big nor'easter" really?

I took his comments from a Lehigh valley perspective , We get 35" annually and a 2' storm is significant.
In "82" I left home a day after a mid Feb 2'storm and ended up jumping water bars a K's 4 mile trail.
 

ss20

Active member
Joined
Jan 13, 2013
Messages
2,580
Points
38
Location
CT
I'll take it. After the past two winters, less cold is a good thing.

650x366_08111416_2015-2016-winter-highlights-adc.jpg
 
Top