powderfreak
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Sorry Mods. Wanted others to see this who might not of if it were buried 7 pages
deep in the other thread.
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Forecast for January 14 through January 16 Northeast Winter Storm
Eastern skiers and riders have waited since October for a decent snowstorm
across ski country in central and northern New England but also accompanying
the snowfall will be a large area of mixed precipitation and potentially
damaging ice for some locations. My forecast and a general forecast map are
included in this post.
I’m going to get right into it and try to make this as brief and to the
point as possible. Winter Storm Watches have been issued across much of
upstate NY and VT for Sunday night through Monday night, and Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect for the southern tier of NY eastward through the
northern Catskills and Albany area. There will be two bouts of
precipitation with this system and the first will arrive late tonight and
during tomorrow, spreading light snow north of a Utica, NY to Rutland, VT
line and south of a Saranac Lake, NY to Berlin, NH line, with a mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain to the south of there through the I-90 corridor in
NY, the northern Catskills, and mainly north of RT 2 in MA. South of that,
there will be a zone of mainly freezing rain stretching from the southern
tier of NY to the Litchfield Hills in far NW CT and in a large area of
interior MA north of I-90, south of RT 2, and west of I-495. Precipitation
should generally be light with snow amounts of 1-3” with isolated 4” amounts
in the Killington region. Travel could be hazardous in parts of Albany’s
Capital District, the I-90 corridor between Buffalo and west of I-495 in MA.
Overall, this will not be a high impact event but will set the stage for
what happens late Sunday night into Monday night.
Sunday night, a more developed low pressure system will move towards the
northeast out of the southwest and runs into the cold air stationed over
southern Canada. This has been missing for the entire winter and has
allowed storm after storm to blast up the Saint Lawrence River Valley
leaving the northeast in the warm sector. With a blocking high pressure
system and confluent zone across extreme southern Canada and far northern
New England, the low will track to the NY/PA border and be forced dead east
into the Gulf of Mexico off the mid-New England coast. Thus, the entire
northern tier of the northeast, including many of the northeast’s major ski
areas, will likely see significant snowfall amounts when all is said and
done. Central New England and central New York will be the battle ground
where warm air aloft ahead of the low pressure, will threaten to bring
significant icing. South of there, the system will be mostly rain but there
could be some pockets of freezing rain across elevated regions of northern
CT, the mid-Hudson River Valley, and northern NJ. Total duration of the
event, including the weak first wave tomorrow, will be around 36 hours;
while there will be a break in the precipitation, in many areas it might
seem like its been raining, sleeting, icing, or snowing for a decent period
of time. This long duration will also preclude any sustained periods of
heavy snow in the north but it will add up.
I have included my thoughts on what the general outcome of those 36 hours,
in the northeast, will be in the map below. It is not sophisticated by any
means but it gets the point across; forgive the unreadable city names but
the interstate system can still be made out. Additionally, I will admit I
mostly focused on the core of the northeast so my confidence decreases as
you head out towards western NY and far eastern Maine. Below the map is my
forecast for each area outline.
http://tinyurl.com/yhla5u
A) This will be the northern end of the precipitation shield so I am
forecasting 1-6” in this area. The reason for the large spread in
forecasted snowfall accumulations is that there will be a very sharp cut-off
to the north; no snow will fall north of this region. The first wave will
stay south of this region so precipitation will mostly fall on Monday from
west to east. One exception to the forecast here is that the Eastern
Townships in Canada, adjacent to northern Vermont, could see over 6”.
B) I’m going with 6-12” of snowfall in Zone B and it will include the
highest snowfall totals for this event. Regions adjacent to the I-89
corridor across Vermont and back to the WSW through the central Adirondacks
will likely see the highest snowfall by receiving snow with both waves and
due to topography with the mean flow out of the west. Areas near zone C
will mix with sleet during the storm so although they receive the most
precipitation overall, there snowfall totals will be held down. There is
the potential for some areas to receive 12-14” such as the Green Mountain
spine from Smugglers Notch southward to the Sugarbush/MRG region, as well as
Gore Mountain in the southern Adirondacks. First wave of snow is during the
day on Sunday with up to 3” of accumulation with the main storm during late
Sunday night into early Monday night.
C) Here, I’m expecting anywhere from three to as much as six inches of snow
across the higher elevations on the northern end of this zone. The highest
total frozen/freezing precipitation will fall in this zone though a heavy
mix of sleet, freezing rain, and even plain rain in some southern areas of
the zone, will cut accumulation totals down. For the main event, look for
precipitation to start as snow before mixing with sleet and freezing rain.
A snow and sleet accumulation will occur before some icing but precipitation
will turn back to all snow as the low passes east. Another inch or two is
possible after the mix.
D) Zone D will not see much overall accumulation with up to 1” of sleet and
freezing rain. Sleet will start the main event before a prolonged period of
freezing rain occurs, especially in interior MA back through the Catskills
and some high elevation spots just south of the NY border. Precipitation
will eventually go over to a cold rain for a period before a possible few
flurries of snow to end it.
E) This area of coastline in north of I-90 will likely start as a mix of
snow and sleet but easterly winds off the ocean should warm them up enough
to preclude any real accumulation. Rain is a threat here but wet snow could
bust this forecast across the Maine coastline. The best chance of
accumulating snows here will be after the low when the winds are coming in
from the interior and not the warm Atlantic. Snowfall will range anywhere
from up to 1” down near Boston to up to 6” across the furthest northeast
point of the Maine coastline.
-Scott
deep in the other thread.
**********************************************************************************************
Forecast for January 14 through January 16 Northeast Winter Storm
Eastern skiers and riders have waited since October for a decent snowstorm
across ski country in central and northern New England but also accompanying
the snowfall will be a large area of mixed precipitation and potentially
damaging ice for some locations. My forecast and a general forecast map are
included in this post.
I’m going to get right into it and try to make this as brief and to the
point as possible. Winter Storm Watches have been issued across much of
upstate NY and VT for Sunday night through Monday night, and Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect for the southern tier of NY eastward through the
northern Catskills and Albany area. There will be two bouts of
precipitation with this system and the first will arrive late tonight and
during tomorrow, spreading light snow north of a Utica, NY to Rutland, VT
line and south of a Saranac Lake, NY to Berlin, NH line, with a mix of snow,
sleet, and freezing rain to the south of there through the I-90 corridor in
NY, the northern Catskills, and mainly north of RT 2 in MA. South of that,
there will be a zone of mainly freezing rain stretching from the southern
tier of NY to the Litchfield Hills in far NW CT and in a large area of
interior MA north of I-90, south of RT 2, and west of I-495. Precipitation
should generally be light with snow amounts of 1-3” with isolated 4” amounts
in the Killington region. Travel could be hazardous in parts of Albany’s
Capital District, the I-90 corridor between Buffalo and west of I-495 in MA.
Overall, this will not be a high impact event but will set the stage for
what happens late Sunday night into Monday night.
Sunday night, a more developed low pressure system will move towards the
northeast out of the southwest and runs into the cold air stationed over
southern Canada. This has been missing for the entire winter and has
allowed storm after storm to blast up the Saint Lawrence River Valley
leaving the northeast in the warm sector. With a blocking high pressure
system and confluent zone across extreme southern Canada and far northern
New England, the low will track to the NY/PA border and be forced dead east
into the Gulf of Mexico off the mid-New England coast. Thus, the entire
northern tier of the northeast, including many of the northeast’s major ski
areas, will likely see significant snowfall amounts when all is said and
done. Central New England and central New York will be the battle ground
where warm air aloft ahead of the low pressure, will threaten to bring
significant icing. South of there, the system will be mostly rain but there
could be some pockets of freezing rain across elevated regions of northern
CT, the mid-Hudson River Valley, and northern NJ. Total duration of the
event, including the weak first wave tomorrow, will be around 36 hours;
while there will be a break in the precipitation, in many areas it might
seem like its been raining, sleeting, icing, or snowing for a decent period
of time. This long duration will also preclude any sustained periods of
heavy snow in the north but it will add up.
I have included my thoughts on what the general outcome of those 36 hours,
in the northeast, will be in the map below. It is not sophisticated by any
means but it gets the point across; forgive the unreadable city names but
the interstate system can still be made out. Additionally, I will admit I
mostly focused on the core of the northeast so my confidence decreases as
you head out towards western NY and far eastern Maine. Below the map is my
forecast for each area outline.
http://tinyurl.com/yhla5u
A) This will be the northern end of the precipitation shield so I am
forecasting 1-6” in this area. The reason for the large spread in
forecasted snowfall accumulations is that there will be a very sharp cut-off
to the north; no snow will fall north of this region. The first wave will
stay south of this region so precipitation will mostly fall on Monday from
west to east. One exception to the forecast here is that the Eastern
Townships in Canada, adjacent to northern Vermont, could see over 6”.
B) I’m going with 6-12” of snowfall in Zone B and it will include the
highest snowfall totals for this event. Regions adjacent to the I-89
corridor across Vermont and back to the WSW through the central Adirondacks
will likely see the highest snowfall by receiving snow with both waves and
due to topography with the mean flow out of the west. Areas near zone C
will mix with sleet during the storm so although they receive the most
precipitation overall, there snowfall totals will be held down. There is
the potential for some areas to receive 12-14” such as the Green Mountain
spine from Smugglers Notch southward to the Sugarbush/MRG region, as well as
Gore Mountain in the southern Adirondacks. First wave of snow is during the
day on Sunday with up to 3” of accumulation with the main storm during late
Sunday night into early Monday night.
C) Here, I’m expecting anywhere from three to as much as six inches of snow
across the higher elevations on the northern end of this zone. The highest
total frozen/freezing precipitation will fall in this zone though a heavy
mix of sleet, freezing rain, and even plain rain in some southern areas of
the zone, will cut accumulation totals down. For the main event, look for
precipitation to start as snow before mixing with sleet and freezing rain.
A snow and sleet accumulation will occur before some icing but precipitation
will turn back to all snow as the low passes east. Another inch or two is
possible after the mix.
D) Zone D will not see much overall accumulation with up to 1” of sleet and
freezing rain. Sleet will start the main event before a prolonged period of
freezing rain occurs, especially in interior MA back through the Catskills
and some high elevation spots just south of the NY border. Precipitation
will eventually go over to a cold rain for a period before a possible few
flurries of snow to end it.
E) This area of coastline in north of I-90 will likely start as a mix of
snow and sleet but easterly winds off the ocean should warm them up enough
to preclude any real accumulation. Rain is a threat here but wet snow could
bust this forecast across the Maine coastline. The best chance of
accumulating snows here will be after the low when the winds are coming in
from the interior and not the warm Atlantic. Snowfall will range anywhere
from up to 1” down near Boston to up to 6” across the furthest northeast
point of the Maine coastline.
-Scott
