powderfreak
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- Jan 9, 2007
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*First off, my terms (and these are generally accepted) and associated possible snowfall are the following...
Light = 1-4"
Moderate = 4-8"
Significant = 8" or greater
WED NIGHT-FRIDAY
Short Version...Low pressure tracks along the SNE coast and ENE into the
Gulf of Maine providing a period of accumulating snows late Wednesday night
into Thursday afternoon. Amounts in the Champlain valley look similar to
the last event, and amounts in the mountains are currently looking like
6-12" before the upslope machine gets turned on for Thursday night and
Friday...totaling a potential, lets call it 8-16" from Killington northward,
by Saturday starting bell.
Discussion...
The models are converging on a track that takes a primary low up towards
northern Illinois and Indiana. However, with the upper level H5 low cutting
off in this region, the jet stream tightens as it is forced south of this
feature. Once it gets past the upper level low, the jet stream winds
diverge which will cause surface air to rise into the void left by the upper
level divergence. The net result is another surface low spawns somewhere in
the mid-Atlantic and likely tracks near the SNE coastline, ENE, into the
Gulf of ME. We are again left in the cold sector to the north of the track
(actually, significant snow is possible as far south as I-90 in the
Berkshires and northern Catskills). With liquid amounts ranging from over
1" as far north as Burlington and points NE on the NAM (snow graphic gives
VT a general 6-12" on this model, with a little more along the spine), to
around a half inch on the GFS, we should see some accumulating snow even in
the Champlain Valley. The model output on both American models yields all
snow for the North Country and snow above 1,000ft down in the
Catskills/Berkshires/SVT. The EURO, UKMET, and Canadian are all roughly in
accordance with this solution so confidence is growing for at least a
moderate event (widespread 4"+) with significant amounts (8"+) along the
Green Mountain Spine and eastward. Looks similar in some regards to the
last system except the upslope snowfall in VT will only last one day instead
of four. Needless to say, if it snows 4-8" between 3am-3pm Thursday in the
Greens and then upslope takes over late on Thursday, well into Friday, we
could see amounts of over a foot by Saturday morning at the resorts.
Certainly will not be like this last snowfall event, but another foot with
no real warm-up before it means the snowpack will continue to grow through
the end of the week. I'll try to nail down other regions in the upcoming day but I think its safe to say the White Mtn resorts up through Sunday River and Sugarloaf will get into the 6-12 inch range. I've been very encouraged by the past 4-6 model runs
on this one.
-Scott
ps: Now, a quick summary of the past 6 days at the Mount Mansfield
stake...remember these are 24 hour measurements and the NWS does four, 6-hr
totals and adds them together. I bet had this taken place at the BTV
airport, the number would probably be over 40" measuring that way and not
allowing for any April settling.
Wed...3.0"
Thur...10.0"
Fri...7.5"
Sat...1.0"
Sun...8.0"
Mon...5.0"
Total...34.5"
Not bad. This morning it is lightly snowing in Burlington (flurries) but
looks like it could still be accumulating in the northern Greens. That
train of snow showers is aimed right at Smugglers Notch and some of the
heavier showers have been tracking right over RT 108 in the Notch (road west
of the 'M' in Morrisville near the county line, for the out of staters).
http://tinyurl.com/2ccjfo
Light = 1-4"
Moderate = 4-8"
Significant = 8" or greater
WED NIGHT-FRIDAY
Short Version...Low pressure tracks along the SNE coast and ENE into the
Gulf of Maine providing a period of accumulating snows late Wednesday night
into Thursday afternoon. Amounts in the Champlain valley look similar to
the last event, and amounts in the mountains are currently looking like
6-12" before the upslope machine gets turned on for Thursday night and
Friday...totaling a potential, lets call it 8-16" from Killington northward,
by Saturday starting bell.
Discussion...
The models are converging on a track that takes a primary low up towards
northern Illinois and Indiana. However, with the upper level H5 low cutting
off in this region, the jet stream tightens as it is forced south of this
feature. Once it gets past the upper level low, the jet stream winds
diverge which will cause surface air to rise into the void left by the upper
level divergence. The net result is another surface low spawns somewhere in
the mid-Atlantic and likely tracks near the SNE coastline, ENE, into the
Gulf of ME. We are again left in the cold sector to the north of the track
(actually, significant snow is possible as far south as I-90 in the
Berkshires and northern Catskills). With liquid amounts ranging from over
1" as far north as Burlington and points NE on the NAM (snow graphic gives
VT a general 6-12" on this model, with a little more along the spine), to
around a half inch on the GFS, we should see some accumulating snow even in
the Champlain Valley. The model output on both American models yields all
snow for the North Country and snow above 1,000ft down in the
Catskills/Berkshires/SVT. The EURO, UKMET, and Canadian are all roughly in
accordance with this solution so confidence is growing for at least a
moderate event (widespread 4"+) with significant amounts (8"+) along the
Green Mountain Spine and eastward. Looks similar in some regards to the
last system except the upslope snowfall in VT will only last one day instead
of four. Needless to say, if it snows 4-8" between 3am-3pm Thursday in the
Greens and then upslope takes over late on Thursday, well into Friday, we
could see amounts of over a foot by Saturday morning at the resorts.
Certainly will not be like this last snowfall event, but another foot with
no real warm-up before it means the snowpack will continue to grow through
the end of the week. I'll try to nail down other regions in the upcoming day but I think its safe to say the White Mtn resorts up through Sunday River and Sugarloaf will get into the 6-12 inch range. I've been very encouraged by the past 4-6 model runs
on this one.
-Scott
ps: Now, a quick summary of the past 6 days at the Mount Mansfield
stake...remember these are 24 hour measurements and the NWS does four, 6-hr
totals and adds them together. I bet had this taken place at the BTV
airport, the number would probably be over 40" measuring that way and not
allowing for any April settling.
Wed...3.0"
Thur...10.0"
Fri...7.5"
Sat...1.0"
Sun...8.0"
Mon...5.0"
Total...34.5"
Not bad. This morning it is lightly snowing in Burlington (flurries) but
looks like it could still be accumulating in the northern Greens. That
train of snow showers is aimed right at Smugglers Notch and some of the
heavier showers have been tracking right over RT 108 in the Notch (road west
of the 'M' in Morrisville near the county line, for the out of staters).
http://tinyurl.com/2ccjfo
