This time it's London...

ctenidae · Jul 8, 2005

The only way to stop them is the institution of a police state. I'm willing to risk it rather than give up any freedoms. As Benjamin Franklin once said, "Those who are willing to lose a measure of freedom to gain a modicum of safety deserve neither."

JimG. · Jul 8, 2005

ChileMass said:
I don't have anything else to add to this other than I wish we as civilized westerners would pull together in solidarity against assholes with bombs, whether they're from Afghanistan, Iraq, OK City or wherever. The Brits pulled for us after 9/11, and we should do the same for them today.

Democratic civilization is worth defending - and that's a fact. The rest of it is style points. Forget complaining about whose style is best in putting out the fire, and help put out the fire. If someone comes over here and bombs a major American city or a grade school or poisons a well, we're going to be sorry we stood around bitching each other out and not doing something about the problem.

In a nutshell :idea:

ctenidae · Jul 8, 2005

An interesting bit on the eventual collapse of al Qaeda-type movements, from a business perspective. From today's Bridgewater Daily Observations (www.bwater.com) (a well respected investment firm- smart bunch of people over there):

It is ironic that these acts of Arab militants (supposedly al-Qaeda) against western capitalism are occurring even as the business climate within the Middle East becomes increasingly capitalist. I just returned from a trip to the Middle East and it was very clear to me and everyone who lives there that this part of the world is experiencing a marked increase in economic vibrancy. One manifestation is the recent surge in equity prices in Middle Eastern countries, ranging from 36% in Bahrain to 195% in the United Arab Emirates.
While some of these gains are certainly due to rising oil prices, they are also due to other forces. For example, there have been generational changes in leadership in Jordan, Abu Dhabi, Syria, and Bahrain. Many of the Middle Eastern leaders are U.S. educated and are creating a more open business climate. They are changing laws to allow more free exchange of property and more investment from foreigners. This is supporting a boom in real estate markets. Dubai is trying to position itself as the business hub of the Middle East, and as part of this push is building the world’s largest airport expansion, the world’s tallest building (160 floors!), and, based on a hand count, over 70 high rise apartment buildings where only eighteen months ago we observed nothing but desert flatlands. One of the locals said that 25% of the world’s cranes are now at work in Dubai (we didn’t check that one, but you get the drift). Ironically, when I asked what the catalyst of this business boom was, many said that it was 9/11. Because of 9/11, Arabs are hassled everywhere they go. And they can’t move money without signing all kinds of forms. As a result, Arabs who could afford to take vacations anywhere in the world now take their family vacations within the Middle East, singing the praises of places like Beirut and Syria as super vacation destinations. And they are leaving increasing amounts of their money in Arab banks, pushing bank profits up substantially. Dubai hotels that were discounting rooms by 50% two years ago are now packed. U.S. policies have also encouraged an opening of the business climate. For example, the U.S. has granted Jordan unique status as a mini free-trade zone. While imported woven goods made outside of NAFTA carry a 27% tariff, there is no tariff if they are made in Jordan. As a result, U.S. imports from Jordan have skyrocketed.
We try to stay clear of political issues, since we don’t know much about them and they don’t matter much for what we do. But it does seem clear that the increasingly open and vibrant economic climate in the Middle East will, over time, help to overwhelm the activities of blatantly violent groups like al-Qaeda.

Note: These views are for indication purposes only. They represent our outright views and positions in these specific markets, but not all markets that Bridgewater trades. Excluded are interest rate differentials, currency cross-rates, and relative equity markets, among others. As a result, these views will not reconcile to actual positions held for client accounts.

SkiDog · Jul 8, 2005

ctenidae said:
An interesting bit on the eventual collapse of al Qaeda-type movements, from a business perspective. From today's Bridgewater Daily Observations (www.bwater.com) (a well respected investment firm- smart bunch of people over there):

It is ironic that these acts of Arab militants (supposedly al-Qaeda) against western capitalism are occurring even as the business climate within the Middle East becomes increasingly capitalist. I just returned from a trip to the Middle East and it was very clear to me and everyone who lives there that this part of the world is experiencing a marked increase in economic vibrancy. One manifestation is the recent surge in equity prices in Middle Eastern countries, ranging from 36% in Bahrain to 195% in the United Arab Emirates.
While some of these gains are certainly due to rising oil prices, they are also due to other forces. For example, there have been generational changes in leadership in Jordan, Abu Dhabi, Syria, and Bahrain. Many of the Middle Eastern leaders are U.S. educated and are creating a more open business climate. They are changing laws to allow more free exchange of property and more investment from foreigners. This is supporting a boom in real estate markets. Dubai is trying to position itself as the business hub of the Middle East, and as part of this push is building the world’s largest airport expansion, the world’s tallest building (160 floors!), and, based on a hand count, over 70 high rise apartment buildings where only eighteen months ago we observed nothing but desert flatlands. One of the locals said that 25% of the world’s cranes are now at work in Dubai (we didn’t check that one, but you get the drift). Ironically, when I asked what the catalyst of this business boom was, many said that it was 9/11. Because of 9/11, Arabs are hassled everywhere they go. And they can’t move money without signing all kinds of forms. As a result, Arabs who could afford to take vacations anywhere in the world now take their family vacations within the Middle East, singing the praises of places like Beirut and Syria as super vacation destinations. And they are leaving increasing amounts of their money in Arab banks, pushing bank profits up substantially. Dubai hotels that were discounting rooms by 50% two years ago are now packed. U.S. policies have also encouraged an opening of the business climate. For example, the U.S. has granted Jordan unique status as a mini free-trade zone. While imported woven goods made outside of NAFTA carry a 27% tariff, there is no tariff if they are made in Jordan. As a result, U.S. imports from Jordan have skyrocketed.
We try to stay clear of political issues, since we don’t know much about them and they don’t matter much for what we do. But it does seem clear that the increasingly open and vibrant economic climate in the Middle East will, over time, help to overwhelm the activities of blatantly violent groups like al-Qaeda.

Note: These views are for indication purposes only. They represent our outright views and positions in these specific markets, but not all markets that Bridgewater trades. Excluded are interest rate differentials, currency cross-rates, and relative equity markets, among others. As a result, these views will not reconcile to actual positions held for client accounts.

To me that right there should put any naysayer about our involvement in the Middle East to rest.

things will change, soon even the people that may once have been "suicide bombers" will "see the light" and hopefully change their ways. It will take time, but it WILL happen..we are slowly removing the bad elements, so again..its only a matter of time.

M

JimG. · Jul 8, 2005

SkiDog said:
To me that right there should put any naysayer about our involvement in the Middle East to rest.

things will change, soon even the people that may once have been "suicide bombers" will "see the light" and hopefully change their ways. It will take time, but it WILL happen..we are slowly removing the bad elements, so again..its only a matter of time.
M

I agree, and remember that seeing the light is a 2- way street. The muslim world will accept us to the same degree we respect and accept them.

hammer · Jul 8, 2005

Just curious...which topic had the most activity in a day?

It seems that this topic's been very active since it was started.

SkiDog · Jul 8, 2005

JimG. said:
SkiDog said:

To me that right there should put any naysayer about our involvement in the Middle East to rest.

things will change, soon even the people that may once have been "suicide bombers" will "see the light" and hopefully change their ways. It will take time, but it WILL happen..we are slowly removing the bad elements, so again..its only a matter of time.
M

Click to expand...

I agree, and remember that seeing the light is a 2- way street. The muslim world will accept us to the same degree we respect and accept them.

Very true..

M

ChileMass · Jul 8, 2005

SkiDog said:
now we're talking about a subway system with thousands of people everyday traveling its trains. Most of these people will have backpacks or breifcases. Those "packs" can all EASILY hold 10lbs of explosives. How can we ever hope to stop this? Seems an impossibility to me, its just to hard to monitor and too easy to bring things in..

This personally scares me. It's one thing for "them" to have brought in explosives over days and assembled a bomb, but for them to just be able to walk in, essentially on a moments notice and detonate something so destructive is really bad.

This is why it's imperative we stop these bombing maniacs NOW in Iraq or wherever else they are. I'm personally amazed there hasn't been a slew of bombings here in the US. It's impossible to police terrorists with a backpack full of plastic explosives - just ask the Israelis.

I will fully grant anyone who believes W's motives for war were less than perfect - you might have some of it right. But this isn't Vietnam where you had draftees getting killed or Watergate where the politicians in the White House were soon-to-be-convicted criminals. There's a hangover effect from both of those terrible eras that still infects the media and much of America. We need to get beyond questioning our own motives and military repsonses because WE are the ones attacked in this scenario.

Even if Saddam Hussein had nothihng to do with 9/11 (I personally do believe the various Islamic terrorist groups are inter-related or at least somewhat mutually supportive), he was a huge threat to western interests in the Middle East. The Israelis bombed an Iraqi nuke plant 25 years ago they suspected of making weapons-grade uranium, and he was well-known for mass-murder and torture. The UN decided he had to go. The US took it upon ourselves to do the job probably no more than 6 months earlier than the UN would have given the "go" order anyway. Get over the Vietnam-style complaints about this war. It is justified by the fact that Iraqis are free, democracy is rising in the region (Lebanon, Egypt, former Soviet republics, elsewhere), and we have the opportunity to take out a lot of the terrorists who want to fight us. If they're stupid enough to go toe-to-toe with a Bradley tank full of US Marines, go for it. Maybe we can take them all out.

This isn't a fight about whether Iraq had WMDs, it's about whether we as free western democracies still feel that our way of life is worth fighting for. Democracy has been proven to be the preferred method of government time and time again. Ask the Chinese or the Russians if they'd like to go back 20 years. Iraq is no different. I do not feel badly at all in saying that we a helping these people walk independently into the modern world.

ctenidae · Jul 8, 2005

Interesting, though, that part of the catalyst is world opinion keeping the super rich Arabs at home and financial watchdogs making them keep their money in the Middle East. Guns, bombs and soldiers aren't doing it.

Stephen · Jul 8, 2005

ChileMass said:
I'm personally amazed there hasn't been a slew of bombings here in the US. It's impossible to police terrorists with a backpack full of plastic explosives - just ask the Israelis.

Their goal now is to turn our allies against us... divide and conquer as it will. It worked in Spain. they are even saying that the types of bombs and timers used resemble the ones in Madrid.

Their goal is to sour our relationships with other countries.

-Stephen

dmc · Jul 8, 2005

Stephen said:
Their goal is to sour our relationships with other countries.

Well then they ARE pretty stupid...
Cause thats already happened a couple years ago...

SkiDog · Jul 8, 2005

dmc said:
Stephen said:

Their goal is to sour our relationships with other countries.

Click to expand...

Well then they ARE pretty stupid...
Cause thats already happened a couple years ago...

I disagree..only the weak have faltered...what real help are spain and france anyway?

M

JimG. · Jul 8, 2005

ctenidae said:
Interesting, though, that part of the catalyst is world opinion keeping the super rich Arabs at home and financial watchdogs making them keep their money in the Middle East. Guns, bombs and soldiers aren't doing it.

Continuing this thought, with oil prices as they are and so much money being concentrated in the Middle East, these folks are just doing what's comfortable for them. Why fight to spend your money in places you are a suspect when you can just build those leisure facilities with your wealth and stay home?

As much as it "helps" keep muslims away from us, it hurts our economy just as badly...we pay more for oil and get no investment in return. In a way it reminds me of WWII and the Japanese; we imprisoned thousands out of blind suspicion. In the 80's and 90's they owned a large part of America. Scary!

dmc · Jul 8, 2005

SkiDog said:
dmc said:

Stephen said:

Their goal is to sour our relationships with other countries.

Click to expand...

Well then they ARE pretty stupid...
Cause thats already happened a couple years ago...

Click to expand...

I disagree..only the weak have faltered...what real help are spain and france anyway?

M

So only France and Spain are mad at the US...

I didn't get the memo... Sorry...

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/news/nation/11974794.htm
http://www.startribune.com/stories/484/5473547.html
http://www.detnews.com/2005/nation/0507/05/0nati-236534.htm

ctenidae · Jul 8, 2005

I simply can't agree, Skidog, Chilemass, and Stephen. Mostly because the end does not justify the means. Sure, Saddam was a bad guy who needed to be dealt with. Did it have to be done by lying to the American public, circumventing the UN, allienating most of the world, and spending $80 billion a year? I don't think so.

dmc · Jul 8, 2005

ctenidae said:
I simply can't agree, Skidog, Chilemass, and Stephen. Mostly because the end does not justify the means. Sure, Saddam was a bad guy who needed to be dealt with. Did it have to be done by lying to the American public, circumventing the UN, allienating most of the world, and spending $80 billion a year? I don't think so.

As well as making the Iraqi peoples life a living hell when we blast through their towns looking for insurgents that should've NEVER made it across the boarder to begin with.....

wow... that was a long sentence..

Greg · Jul 8, 2005

We all seem much calmer today. Thank you, everyone.

SkiDog · Jul 8, 2005

ctenidae said:
I simply can't agree, Skidog, Chilemass, and Stephen. Mostly because the end does not justify the means. Sure, Saddam was a bad guy who needed to be dealt with. Did it have to be done by lying to the American public, circumventing the UN, allienating most of the world, and spending $80 billion a year? I don't think so.

If I remember correctly didnt saddam circumvent the UN insepctors?

M

SkiDog · Jul 8, 2005

dmc said:
SkiDog said:

dmc said:

Stephen said:

Their goal is to sour our relationships with other countries.

Click to expand...

Well then they ARE pretty stupid...
Cause thats already happened a couple years ago...

Click to expand...

I disagree..only the weak have faltered...what real help are spain and france anyway?

M

Click to expand...

So only France and Spain are mad at the US...

I didn't get the memo... Sorry...

http://www.dfw.com/mld/dfw/news/nation/11974794.htm
http://www.startribune.com/stories/484/5473547.html
http://www.detnews.com/2005/nation/0507/05/0nati-236534.htm

don't be silly its not only them, but its hardly "everyone"..and in the end...they'll all come around.

Mark my words.

M

dmc · Jul 8, 2005

Greg said:
We all seem much calmer today. Thank you, everyone.

As long as I don't get falsely accused or maiming US soldiers... I'm cool...

This time it's London...

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