Get your powder this week, will be gone by next week

[powderfreak]

Check this out...valid January 9 - January 13. Warm. This is flat out
crazy that it is forecasting +16C to +18C departures from normal at 850mb
(4.5-5K feet in elevation). It looks like its predicting actuals of +4 to
+6C (low to mid 40's) at our summit heights as an average for those days.

Should we start making sacrifices? Don't start with the messenger....

-Scott

 

[X-Linked]

Forecast Shmorecast.

 

[KingM]

Bah. It'll never happen.

 

[ckofer]

Check this out...valid January 9 - January 13. Warm. This is flat out
crazy that it is forecasting +16C to +18C departures from normal at 850mb
(4.5-5K feet in elevation). It looks like its predicting actuals of +4 to
+6C (low to mid 40's) at our summit heights as an average for those days.

Should we start making sacrifices? Don't start with the messenger....

-Scott

I thought I heard something about that on the tv when I was half asleep a couple days ago. I dismissed it as a dream. Damn.

 

[loafer89]

There is so much snow in Western Maine that it would take a huge thaw to melt it. There is easily 1.5' - 3' of cover on the ground in most spots. My ski pole was half gone in many spots in the woods at Saddleback today.

I have heard that we can expect more artic air and storms after the 10th of the month of January.

 

[Greg]

January 9 is a million years away as far as I'm concerned. I'm surprised by such an absolute thread title from you, Scott...

 

[riverc0il]

January 9 is a million years away as far as I'm concerned. I'm surprised by such an absolute thread title from you, Scott...

Seems pretty reasonable to me. There is powder on the way this week and next week sees a massive pattern change that pretty much all mets across the board seem to be calling with very high certainty. This shift was predicted before the season even started by long range folks dialed into overall patterns rather than forecasting. Josh Fox's SIngle Chair Weather Blog suggests breaking out the umbrella for January after this week. If Scott and Fox put up the warnings, I head their words and mentally prepare myself for the worst.

 

[loafer89]

These where also the same people who predicted a warm November and December and that was a bust.

From Accuweather:

Strong push of very cold air into eastern Canada Tuesday and Wednesday could be the last for quite a while as the pattern will change once again and could "lock in" through the month, see below.

A quick note on the latest European model weekly long range forecast for North America.......
As we suspected, last week's model forecast through mid-January might have had some issues. The latest forecast that was just issued today is back to what it has forecasting over the past few months, a return to ay time will tell persistent, and expanding ridge of high pressure in the upper-levels of the atmosphere over the eastern U.S. from January 6th through a good part of the month, while a large trough in the upper-levels of the atmosphere expands from Alaska to the West Coast. What does this mean? It means that after the 5th or 6th of January it is going to be very tough to get any real cold air into the eastern half of the U.S., including southern Manitoba/Ontario/southern Quebec and the Maritimes. Temperatures in these regions will end up above or much-above normal. The mean storm track will also shift north and west, heading up into the northern Plains and upper Midwest of the U.S. and then into northwestern Ontario. Secondary storms might reform over the Maritimes. Western Canada will turn colder compared to normal with above normal precipitation from southern BC south to the West Coast of the U.S. This type of pattern will be quite favorable for a continuation of the snowy pattern for the BC/Alberta ski resorts and even more snow events to the Vancouver area. The Plains storm track could lead to above-normal snowfall for the southeastern Prairies and northern Ontario.

Only time will tell if this is correct

 

[billski]

dammit, Janet! (thank you rockyhorrorpictureshow.) I'll just be forced to ski the next three days. sacrifices, sacrifices....

One scary looking chart. Thanks, Scott.

 

[powderfreak]

January 9 is a million years away as far as I'm concerned. I'm surprised by such an absolute thread title from you, Scott...

I know, I know...but I'm realizing the warmer scenarios are more often correct than the colder ones these days. Sad, but true and I cannot ignore all available data pointing to a serious 7-14 day warm-up. Most of the signs point to at least a transient shot of cold air late in the month. This is the January thaw at its finest, IMO.

 

[Greg]

Just means we'll be skiing some spring bumps instead of powder...

 

[riverc0il]

Just means we'll be skiing some spring bumps instead of powder...

Spring skiing, indeed. :beer:

 

[KingM]

Right, and we should have another foot or two of snow on top of it. I said this before, but we can survive a warm up practically unscathed. We already had one last week and it's already a few inches of powder away from where it was.

Bottom line is that the base is great, there's a thaw every year, and we're better prepared to handle it than we have been in a long time.

 

[GrilledSteezeSandwich]

Fresh Poe tomorrow morning in the POE-Conos..

 

[KingM]

Here is the forecast for this week in the Mad River Valley. Some cold weather, but plenty of snow.

# Tonight: Cloudy. Snow likely late. Low 24F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Snow accumulating 2 to 4 inches.

# Tomorrow: Snow during the morning will taper off as a few snow showers during the afternoon. High 27F. Winds NNW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 90%. 1 to 3 inches of snow expected.

# Tomorrow night: Mostly cloudy skies with a few snow showers late. Low 17F. Winds SW at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 50%.

# Tuesday: Snow during the morning will become heavy at times during the afternoon. High 29F. Winds E at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Significant snow accumulation possible.

# Wednesday: A few snow showers. Highs in the low 20s and lows 2 to -2F.

# Thursday: Times of sun and clouds. Highs in the upper single digits and lows in the low single digits.

Who knows what next week brings, but this week looks like more great skiing weather.

 

[powderfreak]

Here is the forecast for this week in the Mad River Valley. Some cold weather, but plenty of snow.
Who knows what next week brings, but this week looks like more great skiing weather.

Very, very true. I'm skiing Tues-Sun this week...going to be sweet.

 

[marcski]

I agree its kind of far out there too...but Herb Stevens, the skiing weatherman, seems to agree with the powderfreak...: And, I've found his long term forecasts and trends to be fairly accurate over the years.

http://www.snocountry.com/article.php/2007122910131690

 

[from_the_NEK]

Last year I was wearing shorts and a t-shirt January 7th. highs were in the 60's.
This years warm-up is the typical January thaw. Hopefully we will rebound the way we did last year.
I haven't investigated but is there supposed to be a lot of wind with the warm air?
Warm with no wind = not so bad since the snow insulates itself with a cool layer of air.
Warm with wind = :evil: bad since the cool layer of air over the snow pack is stripped away (think reverse windchill). Leads to rapid snowmelt and/or sublimation.

 

[JimG.]

This is the same patten I recalled from 12 years or so ago.

We discussed then that these patterns often change every 8 weeks or so.

Is it just a coincidence that my new job starts on 1/7?

 

[Grassi21]

This is the same patten I recalled from 12 years or so ago.

We discussed then that these patterns often change every 8 weeks or so.

Is it just a coincidence that my new job starts on 1/7?

You screwed us man. ;-)

Good luck in your new role.