Vail to buy Stowe?

Just saw this announcement.
Vail Buys 17 Resorts

http://vtskiandride.com/vail-buys-vermont/



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from_the_NEK said:

Just saw this announcement.
Vail Buys 17 Resorts

http://vtskiandride.com/vail-buys-vermont/



Sent from my HTC6545LVW using AlpineZone mobile app

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Hahahaha

Stowe purchase is official. Now on the Epic pass $859 unrestricted. Gonna be a shitshow.

http://news.vailresorts.com/corporate/stowe-acquisition-closing.htm

chuckstah said:

Stowe purchase is official. Now on the Epic pass $859 unrestricted. Gonna be a shitshow.

http://news.vailresorts.com/corporate/stowe-acquisition-closing.htm

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Stowe has not aeen a season pass this cheap in a long long time!

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it's going to be really interesting (or scary) to see how long the vail model works.

At what point do the crowds take away from the general public's enjoyment?
Sure it's cheap, but if you spend half your time standing in line, is it worth it?

ironhippy said:

it's going to be really interesting (or scary) to see how long the vail model works.

At what point do the crowds take away from the general public's enjoyment?
Sure it's cheap, but if you spend half your time standing in line, is it worth it?

Click to expand...

The bulk of the customers at ski areas (weekend/holiday crowds) seem to have unlimited tolerance for packed lodges and long lift lines. If it's cheap, they will come.

What do you think the day pass ticket prices will end up being midweek and weekend? That will be the real determination of the level of Sh*t show.

Hawk said:

What do you think the day pass ticket prices will end up being midweek and weekend? That will be the real determination of the level of Sh*t show.

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Vail sells cheap season passes and expensive day tix. You can count on those day prices only rising.

Hawk said:

What do you think the day pass ticket prices will end up being midweek and weekend? That will be the real determination of the level of Sh*t show.

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They use high daily ticket rates as a deterrent to focus on pass holders - they want people to buy the season pass. Effectively about 7 days at Stowe is equal to a season pass.

I wonder how this will impact the Ski Club awareness days for Stowe.

dlague said:

I wonder how this will impact the Ski Club awareness days for Stowe.

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Me too, probably a thing of the past, bummer.




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Edd said:

Vail sells cheap season passes and expensive day tix. You can count on those day prices only rising.

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Exactly.

dlague said:

They use high daily ticket rates as a deterrent to focus on pass holders - they want people to buy the season pass. Effectively about 7 days at Stowe is equal to a season pass.

I wonder how this will impact the Ski Club awareness days for Stowe.

Click to expand...

Do other Vail resorts have ski club days? Doesn't it take like 4 days to break 'even' at Vail with the Epic pass?

How fast do you think they can get a quad installed at Toll House and put in a new parking lot across the street??? Will be interesting to see what the Stowe only passes will look like. If they follow the WB model, they will offer a more expensive Stowe only pass, but have the resort discounts. Also wondering if the 30 something pass will still be around.

mbedle said:

How fast do you think they can get a quad installed at Toll House and put in a new parking lot across the street??? Will be interesting to see what the Stowe only passes will look like. If they follow the WB model, they will offer a more expensive Stowe only pass, but have the resort discounts. Also wondering if the 30 something pass will still be around.

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I would say definitely no 30 something pass. What is the point in having a more expensive resort only pass?

Jully said:

I would say definitely no 30 something pass. What is the point in having a more expensive resort only pass?

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Right. They generally try to streamline their season pass offerings. At least that is what they do here. It is Epic, Epic Local, etc.

Jully said:

I would say definitely no 30 something pass. What is the point in having a more expensive resort only pass?

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The resort only passes have specific discounts associated with the resort. In Stowe case, they still have the golf club house, the Stowe Mountain Club, the Performing Arts Center, the Adventure Center, the Ice Rink, the Canteen, Solstice and Hourglass restaurants and the multiple businesses in Spruce Peak.

As far as the 30 something, I doubt that will be available. Which might help a little with the problems we saw this past winter. That also might be some good news for Sugarbush.

Jully said:

Do other Vail resorts have ski club days? Doesn't it take like 4 days to break 'even' at Vail with the Epic pass?

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4 days with Epic Local and just over 5 days with Epic. I used Stowe's pricing and compared to Epic Pass.

mbedle said:

How fast do you think they can get a quad installed at Toll House and put in a new parking lot across the street??? Will be interesting to see what the Stowe only passes will look like. If they follow the WB model, they will offer a more expensive Stowe only pass, but have the resort discounts. Also wondering if the 30 something pass will still be around.

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Not many Vail resorts have a resort specific only season pass. The few exceptions are Keystone/Abasin pass (way cheaper) then the Breck/Keystone/A Basin pass(slightly cheaper), Whistler (slightly more but for a teen slightly less), Tahoe resorts fall in line with Tahoe Local. All others appear to fall in line. It is possible that with Stowe being an island on its own they might do a Stowe only pass. My guess they encourage Epic pass instead.

dlague said:

4 days with Epic Local and just over 5 days with Epic. I used Stowe's pricing and compared to Epic Pass.



Not many Vail resorts have a resort specific only season pass. The few exceptions are Keystone/Abasin pass (way cheaper) then the Breck/Keystone/A Basin pass(slightly cheaper), Whistler (slightly more but for a teen slightly less), Tahoe resorts fall in line with Tahoe Local. All others appear to fall in line. It is possible that with Stowe being an island on its own they might do a Stowe only pass. My guess they encourage Epic pass instead.

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Stowe is doing a Stowe only pass, which they will announce prior to the season. So, yes they are pushing the epic pass first.

ironhippy said:

it's going to be really interesting (or scary) to see how long the vail model works.

At what point do the crowds take away from the general public's enjoyment? Sure it's cheap, but if you spend half your time standing in line, is it worth it?

Click to expand...

I used to get paid to predict businesses future, so here's my guess where Vail goes from here, and while things look great right now, I do have some early concerns.

This EPIC pass effort has been very successful and it still has legs, so the stock price will keep going up for a bit, but I feel they're close to approaching the top of the bell curve on their potential success with this strategy.

So.....

They're a publicly traded company, not growing profits is not acceptable. As they struggle to grow revenue they will continue to buy mountains, as bolt-on revenue is the easiest way to continue to grow, plus......without getting too deep in the weeds....you can do a lot of accounting maneuvers to mask growth decline or growth stasis through acquisitions. Also, look for more "international" mountains being purchased, and you'll hear Vail say this is both to grow the business and seek to add additional markets for growth. To the novice, at this point it will look like Vail is taking over the world, but WARNING, at about this time Vail's acquisitions will begin to decrease in quality for two key reasons. 1) You've already picked off the low-hanging, most advantageous acquisition fruit 2) Acquisition cost increases through lower supply as well as the fact sellers know your MO and know you're now a "motivated" buyer. Big difference heading into a sale from a position of strength versus a position of weakness.

As it becomes increasingly difficult for Vail to grow revenue, they will now look to cut expenses. First, they'll look to cut the non customer-facing expenses so as to be relatively unnoticeable. There'll probably be a renewed emphasis on efficiency, competitive-bidding etc.. The next thing will be the labor cuts, and you'll no longer be able to swing a dead cat and hit a Vail employee. Seriously.... it's crazy how many employees these Vail properties have. Every 10 feet you see someone with a Vail coat. That labor-excess will end, and probably swiftly. But cutting expenses too much becomes a "nose spiting" exercise since Vail focuses so heavily on the high-end market and here too, they'll quickly reach the point of diminishing returns. Oh..... also.....the CEO is young and smart, so before things get too bad and when Vail's still relatively on-top, he'll probably resign to "seek new opportunities" and "seek new challenges". Essentially, Vail is so awesome and I've done such an amazing job, that I just cant help it become any better, but that will be an excuse for him to leave while still on top and get a new, high-paid, CEO gig elsewhere, and possibly in an entirely different industry.

The stock then starts to drop once the flaws and lack of growth can no longer be masked & hidden. The Vail business model will begin to be publicly questioned. Vail is just TOO large! Divestitures will begin to occur to raise cash, pay debt, strengthen the balance sheet, and make activist Wall Street investors happy. The initial mountains sold will be called "non-core" assets. And the world turns........

I give this all.......say....... roughly 10 years.

Edd said:

The bulk of the customers at ski areas (weekend/holiday crowds) seem to have unlimited tolerance for packed lodges and long lift lines. If it's cheap, they will come.

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Cheap is a relative term when speaking over 800. Is it cheaper than it was? Yes. Is it cheap? No