Josh Fox borders on delusion/ecstasy

[billski]

What was MRG's Josh Fox smokin' when he penned this one:

[FONT=Comic Sans MS,Verdana,Helvetica,sans-serif]I am going to predict the snowiest winter since the blog began and will include one lone epic period similar to what happened in February of 2007 and Christmas/New Years 2002-2003. Snowfall in the end will exceed 300 inches."[/FONT]


Of course he did balance that against it might be a very warm winter, suggestion another year of fleetingly great days.

 

[polski]

What was MRG's Josh Fox smokin' when he penned this one:

[FONT=Comic Sans MS,Verdana,Helvetica,sans-serif]I am going to predict the snowiest winter since the blog began and will include one lone epic period similar to what happened in February of 2007 and Christmas/New Years 2002-2003. Snowfall in the end will exceed 300 inches."[/FONT]


Of course he did balance that against it might be a very warm winter, suggestion another year of fleetingly great days.

I've now seen several forecasts using 2006-07 as an analog. That winter basically was non-existent until mid- to late January, then was pretty consistently great from mid-Feb (including the epic Valentine's Day storm) to mid-April. I've been thinking about this and if the choice was between one so-so but longer winter and a poor first half + awesome second half, I'd take the latter every time. Quality over quantity. (although as an MRG shareholder I also like to see a longer season for co-op financial reasons.)

Anyway, I think Josh said normal to possibly slightly warmer than normal winter, not too extreme. In the few years I've been watching his stuff, he's tended to tell it like it is, good bad & ugly. Pretty good calls, all in all. Finally, remember that 300+" call is for MRG, which averages 225-250 according to several sources that come up in Google.

 

[riverc0il]

Keep in mind that the Single Chair Weather Blog does not have a long history. So "snowiest weather since the blog began" is not saying too much. Snowfall at MRG exceeding 300 inches is a pretty bold statement to make in November though.

 

[severine]

I've now seen several forecasts using 2006-07 as an analog. That winter basically was non-existent until mid- to late January, then was pretty consistently great from mid-Feb (including the epic Valentine's Day storm) to mid-April.

Not thrilled with that scenario. I have to get the bulk of my ski days in from Christmas week to Martin Luther King Day (winter break from school). Otherwise, it's 1-2 short sessions a week... if the snow ever arrives or can be made.

 

[polski]

Keep in mind that the Single Chair Weather Blog does not have a long history. So "snowiest weather since the blog began" is not saying too much. Snowfall at MRG exceeding 300 inches is a pretty bold statement to make in November though.

No question.

FWIW: Josh Fox started blogging 2004-05 (per a comment he made in Nov ’07 about that being his fourth season doing it). His archive only goes back to 2006 though.

Apparently for 2006-07 he also predicted 300+* and in his 2007 season opener he said he’d “for the most part, called the last three seasons correct” and “It took one heck of a finish in 2007 to get that one into the win column but in the end the mountain tallied nearly 300 inches of snow and temperatures were slightly above normal in accordance with the pre-season prediction.”

For 07-08 he called 220 inches and suggested in his season wrap that MRG exceeded that, but I don’t see that he gave a specific final total.

For 08-09 he predicted “Snowfall will run within the normal range this year totaling anywhere between 220-280 inches. Temperatures will run above the 30-year average for the winter by about 2 degrees and we will likely encounter a real mild stretch that could cripple skiing for a few weeks. Right now I would guess this occurs in January.” At the end of the season he again didn’t cite a final total but suggested it actually wound up being a colder than average winter, albeit with long dry spells for much of February (except for epic snowfall as President’s Day week ended) and March.

* I've Googled but not been able to find a consistent source of season snowfall data on MRG. I did find this from the SKIVT-L folks on season totals at the Mansfield stake at Stowe. I note that 06-07 there was reported at ~250, and while I doubt MRG would have gotten a lot more than that, who knows. The plot is interesting for other reasons though.

 

[bigbog]

......For 07-08 he called 220 inches and suggested in his season wrap that MRG exceeded that, but I don’t see that he gave a specific final total....

C'mon polski, why on earth would he have to do that..in this era of PC/Blog-dom that's referred to as great style...his word is sacred cuz he's the leader of the blog...:lol:
It's the age old phrase used to describe America....You never know what you can do until you try.. :lol:

 

[polski]

As someone who's dabbled in blogging myself, yeah, I get that ;-)

Anyway, forecast evaluation aside, the bigger point I'd make is that while 300" is a bold call, it's not something that's completely off the charts historically for the northern Greens, and it can happen even if temps for the season are a little above normal.

 

[billski]

the facts

Well boys and girls, here are some facts. Go figure....

 

[polski]

That's interesting (February is a little surprising to me) but I don't think it says much re snowfall at MRG - it's data for Waitsfield, in the valley, which will miss the big upslope dumps and other elevation-dependent accumulation. Hell, this past weekend MRG reported 8-10" up top but got little more than a trace at the base.

If I'm adding correctly, the median seasonal snowfall at Waitsfield is 103", which is a little better than Burlington but less than half the average at MRG.

 

[ski_resort_observer]

That's interesting (February is a little surprising to me) but I don't think it says much re snowfall at MRG - it's data for Waitsfield, in the valley, which will miss the big upslope dumps and other elevation-dependent accumulation. Hell, this past weekend MRG reported 8-10" up top but got little more than a trace at the base.

If I'm adding correctly, the median seasonal snowfall at Waitsfield is 103", which is a little better than Burlington but less than half the average at MRG.

It's the diference between the valley and up on the mountain. If we don't get some natural snowfall soon this will be the 3rd winter in a row where MRG misses being open for the Xmas holiday. I going to be optimistic and say we will have real snow by xmas and enough for MRG to open. Last year it rained and it was 55F during xmas.

Forget what Josh was smoking I want to know what the people who thought anyone can predict what mother nature will do for an entire season was smoking. :wink:

 

[polski]

It's the diference between the valley and up on the mountain. If we don't get some natural snowfall soon this will be the 3rd winter in a row where MRG misses being open for the Xmas holiday. I going to be optimistic and say we will have real snow by xmas and enough for MRG to open. Last year it rained and it was 55F during xmas.

Forget what Josh was smoking I want to know what the people who thought anyone can predict what mother nature will do for an entire season was smoking. :wink:

I hear that. In at least one of his winter forecasts Josh in essence addressed this, saying IIRC that at best you couldn't expect seasonal forecasts to end up right more than 60% of the time. I'd note that's little better than a coin flip, though he's not really trying to answer a binary question. In any event, I like how he and others of his ilk constantly keep the real big picture (teleconnections etc) in mind.

Anyway, was it last year that there actually was a good snowfall shortly before Xmas but then blowtorch? (Yes, yes it was, judging by my 12/23/08 Magic TR.) From longer-term stuff I'm seeing, I'm starting to think we might see that kind of scenario again. Potential for a big dump middle of next week and some sustained cold thereafter but then a warmup later in the month?