MLK weekend washout?

[loafer89]

I was just looking at the extended forecast on the NOAA website and the forecast discussion is calling for really warm temperatures this week. There is a potential for a rainstorm in the thursday-friday period with significant snowmelt possible for areas south of Albany, N.Y :roll: :evil:

Where is winter?

 

[Catul]

Yeah, this forecast does NOT look promising at all; really sucks! Kind of a pattern with both the Christmas week and now MLK week getting washed out, with pretty decent snow the other times!

We've got a day trip to Jiminy Peak planned on Sunday with another couple that we've been wanting to get out with for a while, and it's been hard to pick a mutually good day what with figuring out all-day babysitting and stuff, so it'll really stink if this Sunday's conditions aren't that great :x

 

[Vortex]

We will have to prep for the Pat's early. I;ll ski in non frozen precip, but I will complain a bit. Lets hope for the best Loafer89(Mr.positive) :wink:

 

[loafer89]

The weather seems to be bad whenever my bronze pass is blacked out (except for Thanksgiving) hopefully this is not a bad omen for Presidents week.

There was alot of natural snowcover in the Catskills at Belleayre, more than I can remember in January. Skiing the glades felt like being in Vermont. I am not trying to be pessimistic, I love winter, but this season so far has just been strange.

I have been reading of a major pattern change back to cold weather like there was in early December sometime next week (fingers and toes crossed)

 

[ALLSKIING]

I don't think it will be a wash out. I am headed to K for 3 days on Fri.

DR. WEATHER----1/9/2006
We have had about 7" the last week and the snow-making weather has improved with the onset of more normal temperatures.
A cold front may bring us a little light snow--especially this evening.
The enclosed map from Google Earth is an approximation of snow depths at various ski areas in New England--middle
to higher elevations. The darkest blue representing snow depths of over 40"; the sky blue about 25-30", which is our snow base and the lighter
blue under 20-25"; the white less than 10."


WEATHER JUNKIE DISCUSSION
La Nina is developing and usually there is not a direct correlation in predicting long range. Sometimes
the winters are colder than normal with normal to above normal snowfall and other times slightly warmer than normal
with below normal snowfall.

Of more importance may be the cyclical nature of weather regimes when compared with La Nina's. In other words,
the extremely wet 2005 in the east (one of the wettest in 120 years), sometimes points to warmer than normal
weather in mid January through early February--with variable snowfall, when comparing it with specific La Nina's that
just happened to be wet before. For this reason, I expect temperatures to be above normal through at least the
next week and quite variable as we head into late January and early February.

If you remember two years ago, I believe, it was extremely cold in January and many wind hold days in parts of central
and northern Vermont. The good news for us, is that we have a pretty good base of snow established and certainly
to not have to worry about sub-zero temperatures and alot of wind coming up for a while, and there will be a storm
to watch for around the 16th.

The American forecast model, that many meteorologists look at as the 'bible' in forecasting, and believe it hook, line
and sinker, is bringing a huge storm up the coast here next weekend with modest amounts of rain of .50-1.00", very warm
temperatures and winds to over 30-45 mph and 50 mph+ on top. Right now, we are fading this model and going
for a little mixed precipitation here Wed night or early Thursday--the weekend system is questionable, but
precipitation should hold off for at least Saturday. Other models suggest a decent rain event by
Sunday night with wrap around snows behind it Monday and several inches of accumulation. Yet others suggest
little or nothing. My guess right now is to expect the wet models to be wrong and forecast little or nothing other than
some light mixed precipitation at worst on Friday or early Saturday.

Because the Pacific is so active and the America models have been wrong the more
medium term forecast models are highly suspect right now. I feel most comfortable in the temperature forecast
for the next 10 days being warmer than normal till the 14th or 15th. The best chance of any modest to major snow event would come around the 16th or 17th th of the
month and really depends on how much cold air will be tapped.

FORECAST---

MONDAY AND TUESDAY-----Slight chance for a little light mixed precipitation today. Then, a
Cold front goes through the area later today or this evening with some off and on light snow. We expect
another trace-2" by tonight. Temperatures into the 20's later tonight with some morning flurries tomorrow and seasonable temperatures.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY---Temperatures begin warming up into the 30's to lower 40's at the best and upper 20's to mid
30's on top by Wednesday. A little light mixed precipitation and rain approaches us from the west sometime on Wednesday and Wednesday
evening.

FRIDAY-WEEKEND--- This is a tricky forecast as models are all over the place. One model brings a major storm up here by
later Saturday or Sunday with modest rains and 3-5" of back last snows by Sunday night and Monday morning. For now,
we will call for a little mixed precipitation possible on Friday, we think the system will stay to our south, but so would escape with little or nothing, as well with
generally mild weekend temperatures and the possibility for at least Saturday to be dry with temps in the 30's and 40's.

BEYOND--Fairly active, changeable weather, with a possible storm around the 16th and 17th--some models have snow
here, others mixed.

- Roemer

 

[Treeliner]

DR. WEATHER----1/9/2006
We have had about 7" the last week and the snow-making weather has improved with the onset of more normal temperatures.
A cold front may bring us a little light snow--especially this evening.
The enclosed map from Google Earth is an approximation of snow depths at various ski areas in New England--middle
to higher elevations. The darkest blue representing snow depths of over 40"; the sky blue about 25-30", which is our snow base and the lighter
blue under 20-25"; the white less than 10."

Actually- do you have a link to that? I'd be interested in seeing that map.

 

[ALLSKIING]

DR. WEATHER----1/9/2006
We have had about 7" the last week and the snow-making weather has improved with the onset of more normal temperatures.
A cold front may bring us a little light snow--especially this evening.
The enclosed map from Google Earth is an approximation of snow depths at various ski areas in New England--middle
to higher elevations. The darkest blue representing snow depths of over 40"; the sky blue about 25-30", which is our snow base and the lighter
blue under 20-25"; the white less than 10."

Actually- do you have a link to that? I'd be interested in seeing that map.

http://www.bestskiweather.com/