Should Vermont secede from the Union?

[legalskier]

And more important, how would it affect lift ticket prices?

"9 Vt. state office candidates favor secession
SHELBURNE, Vt. – Peter Garritano thinks it's time for Vermont to call it quits with America.
The way the 54-year-old automobile salesman sees it, the 'empire' is about to implode and tiny Vermont can lead the way by becoming its own independent republic. So he's running for lieutenant governor, topping a slate of secession-minded candidates seeking statewide offices this year...."

Read more: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20100113...jbGVfc3VtbWFyeV9saXN0BHNsawM5dnRzdGF0ZW9mZmk-

 

[Glenn]

This will be hard to discuss without getting political.

From a very broad point of view...I don't think they could sustain themselves. It's a mostly tourism based economy. Basically, just about everything would have to be "imported".

Interesting sidenote. I'd like to see how many of those "secession-minded candidates" put up a big fight over receiving stimulous money. Maybe they did...I just don't know.

 

[billski]

It has no impact on me. Unless of course they institute a border crossing, customs, immigration and exit fees.

 

[mondeo]

I think precedent's been set for what happens when people try to secede...

 

[Geoff]

I think precedent's been set for what happens when people try to secede...

General Sherman doing urban renewal in Atlanta?

Can you imagine anyone voting to give up their Federal social security and medicare benefits? Can you imagine anyone in the upper valley voting to give up their ability to get healthcare over the river at Dartmouth-Hitchcock? It's a complete non-starter.

 

[dmc]

They'll do good with skiing, jam bands, carved bears and syrup...

 

[ctenidae]

I think precedent's been set for what happens when people try to secede...

Nice.

 

[deadheadskier]

From a very broad point of view...I don't think they could sustain themselves. It's a mostly tourism based economy. Basically, just about everything would have to be "imported".

Yes, but at least in one way, Vermont sustains itself better than any other state. Vermont leads the nation in consuming food only produced within state boundaries. California is second.

 

[Glenn]

Yes, but at least in one way, Vermont sustains itself better than any other state. Vermont leads the nation in consuming food only produced within state boundaries. California is second.

I agree. They have a very strong "buy local" ethic there when it comes to food. The other side of the coin there is...what to do in the colder the months? Maybe there would be an increase in canning facilities?

 

[Geoff]

Yes, but at least in one way, Vermont sustains itself better than any other state. Vermont leads the nation in consuming food only produced within state boundaries. California is second.

That didn't pass my "does this make sense" test so I googled it.

I just found a paper that says Vermont ranks 37th, not second. Dairy and non-beef animals are the only categories where Vermont sustains itsself 100%.

http://vtpeakoil.net/docs/Timmons_thesis.pdf

Vermont does not have the climate or the proper land to be self-sustaining.

 

[ctenidae]

That didn't pass my "does this make sense" test so I googled it.

I just found a paper that says Vermont ranks 37th, not second. Dairy and non-beef animals are the only categories where Vermont sustains itsself 100%.

http://vtpeakoil.net/docs/Timmons_thesis.pdf

Vermont does not have the climate or the proper land to be self-sustaining.

I bet they'd improve their rankings a lot if Subaru opened a plant there.

 

[Geoff]

When the IBM plant eventually closes, Chittenden County will turn into Arkansas. IBM stopped investing capital in the place and it's going to be obsolete with all production shifting to Asia over the next decade. The expiration of the Quebec Hydro contract is likely to be the final coffin nail since semiconductor plants are such huge consumers of electricity. They've already shrunk the plant down to about 5,000 head count. They're using a gradual attrition strategy as people quit and retire and have a complete hiring freeze at the facility. The economic multiplier of 5,000 IBM jobs in a state of 600K is enormous since they pay so well. You can't backfill with Ben & Jerry's or Green Mountain Coffee minimum wage jobs.

 

[Glenn]

When the IBM plant eventually closes, Chittenden County will turn into Arkansas. IBM stopped investing capital in the place and it's going to be obsolete with all production shifting to Asia over the next decade. The expiration of the Quebec Hydro contract is likely to be the final coffin nail since semiconductor plants are such huge consumers of electricity. They've already shrunk the plant down to about 5,000 head count. They're using a gradual attrition strategy as people quit and retire and have a complete hiring freeze at the facility. The economic multiplier of 5,000 IBM jobs in a state of 600K is enormous since they pay so well. You can't backfill with Ben & Jerry's or Green Mountain Coffee minimum wage jobs.

Don't forget...a lot of people are lobbying for the closing of VT Yankee. That's 600+ jobs gone if that happens.

 

[deadheadskier]

That didn't pass my "does this make sense" test so I googled it.

I just found a paper that says Vermont ranks 37th, not second. Dairy and non-beef animals are the only categories where Vermont sustains itsself 100%.

http://vtpeakoil.net/docs/Timmons_thesis.pdf

Vermont does not have the climate or the proper land to be self-sustaining.

'mis-remembered' what I had read. Vermont is #1 in the nation in direct sales from farms to consumers.

http://www.vtlife.com/pdf/08su-food-mecca.pdf

 

[deadheadskier]

When the IBM plant eventually closes, Chittenden County will turn into Arkansas. IBM stopped investing capital in the place and it's going to be obsolete with all production shifting to Asia over the next decade. The expiration of the Quebec Hydro contract is likely to be the final coffin nail since semiconductor plants are such huge consumers of electricity. They've already shrunk the plant down to about 5,000 head count. They're using a gradual attrition strategy as people quit and retire and have a complete hiring freeze at the facility. The economic multiplier of 5,000 IBM jobs in a state of 600K is enormous since they pay so well. You can't backfill with Ben & Jerry's or Green Mountain Coffee minimum wage jobs.

I agree that it will hurt, but suggesting Chittenden County will turn into Arkansas is a bit extreme. Between the universities and the hospital, I wouldn't expect that much of a drop off in that economy.

 

[RootDKJ]

Don't forget...a lot of people are lobbying for the closing of VT Yankee. That's 600+ jobs gone if that happens.

I caught some of this on my drive up to Stowe.

 

[Glenn]

LOL! I saw that on the news Root. At least they found snow!

 

[Geoff]

I agree that it will hurt, but suggesting Chittenden County will turn into Arkansas is a bit extreme. Between the universities and the hospital, I wouldn't expect that much of a drop off in that economy.

In a state of 610,000 people, if 5,000 high paid IBM jobs vaporize, the state has no money to fund UVM or the university hospital. Right now, the state picks up something like 60% of in-state tuition plus a lot of financial aid. The Catamount health program would collapse. A bunch of businesses that are driven by all that IBM money close since tech wages have such a big multiplier in the local economy. Housing prices collapse.

The semiconductor fab lines in Essex Junction are pretty close to being obsolete. Given the cost disadvantage of Vermont, I'd be amazed if the plant got upgraded. Maybe Arkansas is a bad example. More like Detroit.

http://www.vermonttiger.com/content/2009/06/vermont-gdp-and-thee.html

A recent examination of GDP by state available on WiserTrade.org confirmed something understood by a lot of Vermonters, but probably not on a quantifiable basis. Wisertrade carries export data on the national and state basis, based on Federal census data. There are customizable reports, and you can drill right into Vermont’s numbers, where you can find some interesting data.

Almost 70% of Vermont’s exports in Q1 2009 are Computer and Electronics Products – basically, this is IBM. This number is roughly the same for most of the last decade. The next-highest percentage category is machinery, except electrical – at 5.7% in Q1 2009. This means that the state is inordinately reliant on one company for much of the business revenues generated here, and corresponding salaries. Those salaries pay state taxes, property taxes, and because it’s a high-tech industry, these salaries are probably well above the state’s median income.

As the state’s largest private employer, this is not a surprise. But having the state’s economy pivot almost entirely on an aging fabricator and Federal bailout money does not seem like a long-term recipe for economic success. It means all our eggs are in one basket. And our legislature recently shook that basket, by essentially threatening one of the major cost and supply concerns for the Essex fab – electricity.

Any Vermont GDP numbers are going to be disproportionately reliant on IBM’s performance. While recent state GDP growth may be positive, especially relative to other New England states, the overall exports in the Computer and Electronic Products segment of Vermont’s economy were down year over year in 2006-2007, 2007-2008, and 2008-2009. 2008-2009 was lower by almost 19%.

These are not the numbers of a vibrant economy. They are the numbers of a potentially calamitously shrinking state economy, and the VT Department of Labor’s job growth numbers were reflecting a less than 1% growth rate almost a year ago, well before events last October. Yet we saw almost nothing in the way of changing the status quo from the legislature last session, and Vermonters will continue to pay the price for it - in the incomes unearned because there is so little opportunity in our state.

 

[deadheadskier]

Interesting

I wonder how IDX/GE Healthcare ranks in comparison in terms of it's economic impact to the state.

 

[RootDKJ]

LOL! I saw that on the news Root. At least they found snow!

Crazy! I had pulled off the highway to get gas and as I'm making my way back I ran into them. I thought it was pretty funny also.